Cloud over output from UP, Govt likely to restrict sugar exports

Cloud over output from UP, Govt likely to restrict sugar exports

After banning exports of wheat and broken rice, the Narendra Modi government is set to take a call next on sugar.
Mills, in all likelihood, will be allowed to export up to 50 lakh tonnes (lt) of the sweetener in the new sugar year from October. Any decision on further quantities would be taken in January-February after a review of domestic production and price trends.
On May 24, the Modi government had moved sugar exports from the “free” to “restricted” category. It also capped total exports for the 2021-22 sugar year at 100 lt, which was raised to 112 lt with effect from August 1.

“They (government) are concerned about output, particularly in Uttar Pradesh where the monsoon rainfall has been nearly 43 per cent deficient and there are also reports of the cane crop being affected by red rot (a fungal disease),” a source told The Indian Express.
The current 2021-22 sugar year has seen both production and exports from India touch record levels of 360 lt and 112 lt respectively. However, closing stocks, estimated at 60 lt on September 30, would be a five-year low.
“That’s still equivalent to two-and-a-half months’ consumption (projected at 275 lt for the whole year). Also, lower production in UP is likely to be offset by increases in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, where rains have been good and reservoirs are full. But they don’t want to take any chances, especially after the latest consumer food price inflation number of 7.62 per cent for August,” the source said.

Prakash Naiknavare, managing director of the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories, said that permitting exports in tranches makes sense, as it will enable mills to enter into contracts before they start production for the new year (crushing operations usually take off post-Diwali).
“The government has already sounded us out that mills can sign export contracts up to 15 per cent of their production (projected at 330-360 lt in 2022-23). We have conveyed this to our members so that they can plan accordingly,” he added.

A strategy to regulate exports after reviewing the domestic availability position is likely in 2022-23 as well.
“The notification allowing an initial quantity of 50 lt is expected in the next few days. A second tranche of 30-35 lt may follow by February, when a reasonable estimate of production can also be made,” the source said.

ExplainedAfter rice and wheatRice, wheat and sugar were three “surplus” agro-commodities. But a whittling down of the surpluses has reignited inflation concerns — and prompted the government to impose restrictions.

Mills are keen to start exports early for two reasons. The first is that the world’s biggest exporter Brazil’s sugar season is from April to November. It gives a window of exports for Indian mills, which crush from late-October to early-May.
The second is prices. White sugar for December delivery is currently quoting at about $538 per tonne. Indian sugar, being less white/refined, would fetch a $50 quality discount or $488 (Rs 39,000) per tonne.
Deducting Rs 3,500 costs (towards bagging, transport from factory to port, stevedoring, and handling) translates into an ex-mill price of Rs 35,500 per tonne. That’s more than the roughly Rs 34,000 that Maharashtra mills are realising from domestic sale of ‘S-grade’ (small-sized granules) sugar.
Indian mills have also been exporting raw sugar, which fetches a 4 per cent “polarisation” premium (for being more amenable to refining into whites) in the world market.

December raw sugar prices are now 17.97 cents per pound, corresponding into 18.69 cents or $412 (Rs 33,000) per tonne from. The expenses are also about Rs 500 per tonne lower, since raw sugar is shipped out in bulk break vessels, as against containers in the case of whites.
India’s sugar exports, which were a mere 0.46 lt in 2016-17 and 6.32 lt in 2017-18, soared to 38 lt, 59.40 lt and 71.90 lt in the subsequent three sugar years, before the all-time-high of 112 lt achieved in 2021-22.
Drought in Brazil in 2021 and in Thailand the year before – and this year’s heat wave in the European Union – have created export opportunities for Indian mills. But whether they can fully seize it now, given inflation worries back home, remains to be seen.
The Modi government, on May 13, banned wheat exports. On September 8, it prohibited exports of broken rice, besides slapping a 20 per cent duty on shipments of other non-parboiled non-basmati varieties.

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Hathras police custodial death: Magisterial probe report submitted to DM

Hathras police custodial death: Magisterial probe report submitted to DM

The report of a magisterial inquiry into the alleged police custodial death of a Hindu Jagran Manch worker at Bisana village of Hathras last month was submitted to District Magistrate Ramesh Ranjan on Tuesday. Also, Rs 5 lakh was given to the victim’s family from the CM’s Discretionary Fund.
Rajkumar alias Raju Chauhan, 50, died on May 17 after he was detained during a clash. His family claimed that Chauhan died after he was beaten up in police custody, but the post-mortem concluded that he died of cardiac arrest.
While Additional District Magistrate Mohammed Moinul Islam conducted the magisterial inquiry, the police probe was transferred to Aligarh police as Chauhan’s family had questioned the credibility of the local police in investigating the matter.
Five policemen, including the then in-charge of Chandpa Police Station, and four others have been booked for murder in the case. Police have arrested two accused so far.Best of Express PremiumDelhi Confidential: Conspicuous by absencePremiumTo ease spends: UPI-credit link, rural bank home loansPremiumUnder vague laws, bees are fish and cats are dogsPremiumRBI leans harder to rein in inflation, but rebound in services will put u...Premium
“We have been demanding a CBI probe to ensure a free and impartial probe to ensure that culprits should be arrested. No policemen have been arrested so far,” said Chauhan’s daughter Sakshi Chauhan.

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With UP win, BJP breaks trend of state losses after 2014

With UP win, BJP breaks trend of state losses after 2014

THE RETURN of Yogi Adityanath as Chief Minister in Uttar Pradesh after a full five-year term not only marks a watershed in the state’s political history but, along with the BJP’s victory in three other states, upends the party’s national trend of losses in states after Narendra Modi took charge at the Centre in 2014.
In effect, it secures for the party the pole position in national politics based on electoral affirmation for its governance record.
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Since 2014, the BJP has lost its incumbent governments in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Jharkhand while scraping through in Haryana. It did cobble up numbers in Madhya Pradesh, overturning the Kamal Nath-led Congress government in 2020.


“We have broken that jinx now,” said a senior leader, “that we cannot retain power in the states under the new political scenario.”
“Uttar Pradesh has given a mandate to the BJP in 2014, 2017, and 2019. It is historic since 1985 and the thread we can weave into this is the victory of the new narrative of development, welfare, youth opportunity without discrimination, safety and security and law and order. It proves the trust the party has built-in which forced the pro-incumbency wave,” said Rajeev Chandrasekhar, who was part of the BJP’s campaign strategy scheme.

Karnataka Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai saw the outcome as setting a new course in national politics, which would make the “India concept” of Prime Minister Modi a reality. “The pro-incumbency factor comes when the people understand the leader and they feel the honesty of the government. What we saw today is a pan-India mandate – from Goa in the deep south to central Uttar Pradesh to Manipur in the east to Uttarakhand in the hills. It also gives hints on what is coming in 2024,” Bommai told The Indian Express. “It has a positive bearing on us in the Karnataka unit and we will work hard to reach the people’s programmes to them at the ground.”

Said a senior Cabinet minister: “We have recognised a new votebank – women and labharthis (beneficiaries) to support us. They have taken this election beyond caste and religious lines. The BJP president, even in a meeting Wednesday evening, had reiterated that if the party wins, it would be the dawn of a new politics in Indian electoral history.”

According to Bhupender Yadav, Union minister and a senior BJP leader, the pro-incumbency factor came into play because the people wanted to continue the pro-poor policies of the Modi government. “People wanted double-engine governments so that they can benefit the maximum out of them. It is an approval of the policies of the Modi government that it had in the past seven years,” he said.
Ahead of the elections, the BJP mobilised and conducted several rounds of meetings with beneficiaries from the booth level to the district level – a potential 25-crore support base at the national level, according to the party.

Under the PM Gareeb Kalyan Anna Yojna, started during the Covid-19 pandemic, there are about 150 million beneficiaries who receive free ration every month, party leaders said. The party also reached out with its digital campaign to 5.5 crore of the estimated total Internet penetration of 8.3 crore people in UP, sources said.
The victory in Uttar Pradesh could reshape the power equations inside the party. “It is the first time a Chief Minister is emerging so powerful in the BJP in its new form. Yogi is returning to power in the biggest state and the vote share has gone up by two percentage points (from 39.67 % to 41.6 % ) which will make him a very powerful leader, elevating him to a national level. He will be the most sought-after campaigner now,” admitted a senior party leader.

Although resentment and anger over joblessness among the youth was palpable on the ground in Uttar Pradesh, the Akhilesh Yadav-led SP did not appear to enjoy the trust of the voters as an alternative to Yogi Adityanath. Nor did the SP have the party machinery or organisation network to cash in on and transform it into votes.
While the BJP cadre was mobilised and motivated by senior party leader and Home Minister Amit Shah who has a considerable hold over the organisation, Modi and Yogi cashed in on their public connect and popularity.
According to a party leader, the Opposition’s failure in mobilising people on the ground also made BJP’s victories easier. “While the Opposition made politics an electoral affair, the BJP is on the ground 24X7X365,” said the leader who has been in charge of BJP in a number of states.

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Who wants a tough leader?

Who wants a tough leader?

There is an American colloquialism that reads ‘when the going gets tough, the tough get going’.
I have always wondered what is ‘tough’. The word has different meanings in different contexts. ‘Tough’ can mean determination; ability to endure hardship; difficult (as in a tough game); or obstinate (as in a tough nut). Tough can also mean a bully or a rough and violent person.
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From Liberator to Tough
Usually, a democratically elected leader, loath to step down after long years in power, becomes ‘tough’. Hitler was before I was born. Growing up, I was dismayed to see Jawaharlal Nehru’s close friends turn from liberators into ‘tough’ leaders: Kwame Nkrumah, Josip Broz Tito, Gamal Abdel Nasser and Sukarno. Each one led the liberation struggle in his country, was elected by a popular vote, was admired by the people, but finally became ‘tough’ and buried democracy and his own legacy.
Jawaharlal Nehru was the sole exception among the five signatories of Panchsheel. Every election under his Prime Ministership — 1952, 1957 and 1962 — was a truly democratic election. His election speeches were lessons in democracy. The vast majority of the gathering did not understand English but sensed that he was talking about democracy, secularism, the difficult task of building a nation, eradicating poverty, the role of government and so on. Nehru was a loved leader, he never became ‘tough’.

The present world is full of tough leaders. None of them, if a free and fair election were held today, would be elected. Prominent tough leaders are Mr Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil, Mr Recep Erdogan of Turkey, Mr Abdul al-Sisi of Egypt, Mr Viktor Orban of Hungary, Mr Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, Mr Kim Jong-un of North Korea, and dozens of others who are not known outside their country or their continent.
Mr Vladimir Putin is in a class of his own. So is Mr Xi Jinping. Both are ‘tough’ leaders who plan to rule as long as they live. As I write, the tough Russian leader is raining rockets and bombs on a helpless Ukraine. According to one count, there are 52 countries whose governments can be described as dictatorships.
Mr Modi Prefers ‘Tough’
In the election campaign in Uttar Pradesh, Mr Narendra Modi spoke approvingly of the need to elect ‘tough’ leaders. At a rally in Bahraich, Mr Modi said “when turmoil is prevailing in the world, India needs to be stronger and for difficult times, a tough leader is needed (The Economic Times, February 23, 2022)”. Incidentally, Bahraich is one of three districts in UP where, according to NITI Aayog, the poverty ratio is over 70 per cent.

Mr Modi clearly wanted the BJP’s leader in UP, Mr Adityanath, to be re-elected presumably because
Mr Adityanath is a ‘tough’ leader needed in these ‘difficult’ times. Mr Adityanath believes in enforcing law and order and brooks no opposition. ‘Encounters’ have official sanction. A criminal need not be brought before a court of law and punished, he can be shot down in an ‘encounter’. According to a report in The Indian Express (July 13, 2021), between March 2017 and June 2021, 139 criminals were killed in police encounters and 3,196 injured.
A favourite word of Mr Adityanath is ‘bulldozer’. On February 27, 2022, while addressing a rally at Karka Bazar in Sultanpur district, Mr Adityanath said, “we have developed this machine that builds express highways and also tackles the mafias and criminals. When I was coming here, I saw four bulldozers. I think there are five assemblies, we will send one to each, then everything will be fine” (India Today). In UP, to use bulldozers to raze buildings or vacate occupants (allegedly illegal), no court orders and no legal processes are necessary.
Mr Adityanath is so tough that
Mr Siddique Kappan, a journalist from Kerala covering the Hathras case of rape and murder, has been kept in jail since October 5, 2020. According to The Wire, since Mr Adityanath became chief minister, a total of 12 journalists have been killed, 48 physically assaulted and 66 booked for various charges or arrested. The tough chief minister persuaded his party not to give a ticket to a Muslim in any of the 403 constituencies, although Muslims constitute 20 per cent of the state’s population.
Under the tough leader, UP is poor, the people have become poorer and 40 per cent has been added in five years to the state’s debt, that stands at a humongous sum of Rs 6,62,891 crore.

Gentle and Wise
I think gentle leaders are the best. They are wise, speak softly, listen to the people, respect institutions and the law, celebrate diversity, work for harmony among the people and leave office quietly. They make the people’s lives better. They provide jobs, better education and healthcare. They are against war and address the challenges of climate change. There have been — and are — such leaders in the world. The incomparable Nelson Mandela was one. Other examples are former Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, Prime Minister Jacinda Adern of New Zealand, Prime Minister Mark Rutte of Netherlands and a few others.
I don’t know what kind of leader UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur and Goa will elect. If I had a vote in any of those states, I would vote for a gentle and wise leader.

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