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آوریل 13, 2022

Explained: Ruins of Mariupol port could become Russia’s first big prize in Ukraine

The Sea of Azov port of Mariupol, reduced to a wasteland by seven weeks of siege and bombardment that Ukraine says killed tens of thousands of civilians, could become the first big city captured by Russia since its invasion.
Russia said on Wednesday more than 1,000 Ukrainian marines, among the last defenders holed up in the Azovstal industrial district, had surrendered, though Ukraine did not confirm that.
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Here is why the city’s capture would be important.
STRATEGIC LOCATION
Mariupol, home to more than 400,000 people before the war, is the biggest Ukrainian city on the Sea of Azov and the main port serving the industries and agriculture of eastern Ukraine. It is also the site of some of Ukraine’s biggest metals plants.
On the eve of the war, it was the biggest city still held by Ukrainian authorities in the two eastern provinces known as the Donbas, which Moscow has demanded Ukraine cede to pro-Russian separatists.

Its capture would give Russia full control of the Sea of Azov coast, and a secure overland bridge linking mainland Russia and pro-Russian separatist territory in the east with the Crimea peninsula that Moscow seized and annexed in 2014.
It would unite Russian forces on two of the main axes of the invasion, and free them up to join an expected new offensive against the main Ukrainian force in the east.
Prominent among the Ukrainian forces that have defended Mariupol is the Azov Regiment, a militia with far right origins incorporated into Ukraine’s national guard. Russia has portrayed destroying that group as one of its main war aims.
HUMANITARIAN IMPACT
The siege of Mariupol has been the worst humanitarian catastrophe of the conflict, described by Kyiv as a war crime. Ukrainian officials say at least 20,000 civilians were killed there by Russian forces employing tactics of mass destruction used in earlier campaigns in Syria and Chechnya.
International organisations such as the Red Cross and the United Nations say they believe thousands died but the extent of suffering cannot be assessed yet because the city has been cut off.
Ukrainian officials have said around a third of the population escaped before the siege, a similar number got out during it, while around 160,000 were trapped inside. They sheltered for weeks in cellars with no power or heat, or access to outside shipments of food, water or medicine.

Daily attempts to send convoys to bring in aid and evacuate civilians failed throughout the siege, with Ukraine blaming Russia for looting shipments and refusing to let buses pass through the blockade. Moscow said Ukraine was to blame for failing to observe ceasefires.
Bodies have been buried in mass graves or makeshift graves in gardens. Ukraine says Russia has brought in mobile crematorium trucks to burn bodies and destroy evidence of killings.
Among the major incidents that drew international outcry was the bombing of a maternity hospital on March 9, when wounded pregnant women were photographed being carried out of rubble. A week later, the city’s main drama theatre was destroyed. Ukraine says hundreds of people were sheltering in its basement, and it has not been able to determine how many were killed. The word “children” had been spelled out on the street in front of the building, visible from space.
Russia denies targeting civilians in Mariupol and has said, without presenting evidence, that incidents including the theatre bombing and maternity hospital attack were staged. Kyiv and its Western allies dismiss this as a smear to deflect blame.
Ukraine says Russia forcibly deported thousands of Mariupol residents to Russia, including some unaccompanied children it views as having been kidnapped. Moscow denies this and says it has taken in refugees.
WHAT NEXT?
Western countries believe Russia’s initial war aim was to quickly topple the government in Kyiv, but Moscow has had to abandon that goal after armoured columns bearing down on the capital were repelled. Russia withdrew from northern Ukraine at the start of April and has said its focus is now on the areas claimed by the separatists in the east.

In recent days, a new Russian column has been moving into eastern Ukraine near the town of Izyum to the north of the Donbas. The fall of Mariupol could free up Russian troops in the south of the Donbas to mount an assault on Ukrainian forces from two directions.
Claiming its first big prize in eastern Ukraine could also give Russia a stronger position to negotiate at any peace talks.

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مارس 23, 2022

Explained: Why Russia and Japan never officially declared peace after WWII

On September 2, 1945, the allied forces accepted Japan’s formal surrender, marking the end of the most destructive global conflict of all time — World War II. But nearly eight decades later, Japan and Russia technically remain at war.
The two countries are yet to formally sign a peace treaty to end World War II hostilities. At the heart of the conflict is a group of tiny islands located just off Japan’s northernmost island of Hokkaido.
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Now peace talks between the two countries have hit yet another stumbling block — Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. After Japan joined the West in imposing hefty sanctions on Moscow, the Russian foreign ministry announced that it was withdrawing from treaty discussions, accusing Japan of “consciously choosing an anti-Russian course”.
Moscow further announced that it was halting all joint-economic programs between the two countries.

Why has Moscow halted peace talks?
After Russia invaded Ukraine, Japan announced that it was revoking ‘most-favoured nation’ (MFN) trade status as part of its economic sanctions against the country. MFN status is a key principle of the World Trade Organisation (WTO). It ensures non-discriminatory trade between all partner countries of the WTO.
Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s decision came soon after similar announcements were made by the US, the EU, and the United Kingdom. But since Tokyo and Moscow aren’t major trading partners, the move is unlikely to have too much of an adverse impact on Russia, according to a report by Japan Times.

Kishida further announced that Japan was expanding the scope of asset freezes against Russia and banning the imports of certain products, Reuters reported. Apart from a wide range of luxury products, Japan has banned the export of about 300 semiconductors, computers and communications devices to Russia and Belarus, according to Japan Times.
Soon after Japan’s announcement, Russia asserted that it would not be continuing talks with Japan. “The Russian side, in the current conditions, does not intend to continue talks with Japan on the peace treaty,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement. It said this was “due to the impossibility of discussing the core document on bilateral relations with a country that has taken an openly hostile position and is striving to cause harm to the interests of our country”.
Russia called off several joint-economic programs and ended a visa-free regime that allowed Japanese people to visit the disputed Kuril islands that were claimed by the Soviet Union towards the fag end of World War II, AFP reported.
Why haven’t Japan and Russia declared peace yet?
Japan and Russia have had a complicated relationship for over a century. But one of the lowest points in Russia-Japan relations played out during the final days of the Second World War, right before Japan’s Emperor Hirohito announced his country’s surrender.

The Soviet Union declared war on Japan and seized a group of islands located near the coast of Hokkaido. All 17,000 Japanese residents were expelled at the time. The islands — known as the southern Kurils in Russia and the Northern Territories in Japan — are at the centre of an ongoing standoff between the two countries.
Since then, while Russia insists that the islands fall under its jurisdiction, Japan maintains that they are an inherent part of its territory and are presently under illegal occupation. The territorial dispute has caused deep rifts between the countries and has kept them from finalising a peace agreement.

After WWII, the Soviet Union refused to sign the formal Treaty of Peace with Japan. Instead, in 1956, the two countries signed a joint declaration “that would technically “end the state of war”. The declaration included an agreement to sign a peace treaty in the future. But this is yet to be achieved.
Why do these islands matter?
Apart from being home to rich fishing grounds, the islands are significant from a strategic perspective. It is here that a large chunk of Russia’s pacific fleet is docked. In fact, over the last few years, Russia has been increasing its military presence on the islands.
In 2016, Russian anti-ship and missile defence systems were stationed here, according to a report by ABC. It has also deployed fighter jets to the islands, much to the ire of Japan’s Foreign Affairs ministry.

Have Japan and Russia tried to negotiate?
Yes, several times. Between 2012 and 2020, leaders of the two countries have held 25 meetings, according to a report by Bloomberg.
Things were starting to look up for Japan in 2018 when Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japan’s former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe agreed that their negotiations should be based on the joint declaration of 1956, which called for the transfer of two of the four islands to Japan. But Russia said Tokyo would first have to acknowledge its sovereignty over the islands.
Then in 2020, Russia amended its constitution, making it illegal to hand over any of its territories.