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ژوئن 25, 2022

Explained Books | Prescription for post-Covid world: resilience

“The Covid-19 pandemic has worked like an X-ray machine, revealing the hidden challenges under the surface of many societies,” Markus K Brunnermeier says in the introduction to his book. Indeed, the pandemic has hit every country — the adverse health impact was just the starting point; the virus ended up disrupting every aspect of society, and the global economic order.
Complex supply chains built and refined over decades had to be abruptly shut down or broken to prevent or slow the infection’s spread. Jobs and livelihoods were lost, inequalities of all kinds widened, governments were pushed to pile on millions of dollars of debt to extend relief, and central banks had to resort to every possible way to stimulate the economy even as health systems collapsed and countries and societies turned more insular and protectionist.

The Covid-19 shock pushed back most countries by several years, possibly decades. And just as it appeared that the world was starting to break free from the seemingly unending cycles of lockdowns, Russia invaded Ukraine, unleashing consequences that reverberated around the world — from costlier fuel prices to scarcity of food items to dramatically heightened geopolitical tensions.
Within just a couple of years, the world economy has swung from trying to avoid a prolonged deflation to desperately fighting inflation. The post-Cold War consensus around globalisation, already under strain from the time of the global financial crisis of 2008-09, has now developed into a militant desire to reduce dependence on other countries.
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Was the world prepared to survive these shocks in 2020? Is it prepared in 2022? More importantly, will it be prepared in the future? If so, how?
In The Resilient Society, Princeton University economist Brunnermeier details the global economic fallout of the Covid disruption. Many of the book’s key insights are distilled from a Princeton webinar series called Markus Academy, which featured influential economists, including more than a dozen Nobel laureates.

In the end, for the author, the touchstone for any society, economy, or indeed the world is “resilience”, or the ability to rebound. It is resilience that sets the reed apart from the robust oak, which has the ability to resist. “I bend but do not break” — that is the essence of resilience.
After explaining the concept and how societies could be redesigned to become resilient in part 1 of the book, Brunnermeier uses Covid to explain the core elements of resilience management in part 2. In parts 3 and 4, he looks at macroeconomic and global challenges that countries face.
The book was released last year, but the Ukraine crisis shows, even though the world has moved to the next shock, Brunnermeier was spot on in underscoring the need to be resilient. The main lesson for societies
is to give up the “just in time” production approach that accords primacy to efficiency, and instead move towards a “just in case” approach that allows for safety buffers.

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ژوئن 22, 2022

India exported 1.5 LMT wheat to Bangladesh since ban

INDIA HAS exported 1.5 lakh metric tonnes (LMT) of wheat to Bangladesh since the country banned export of the grain on May 13, Food Secretary Sudhanshu Pandey said on Wednesday.
Addressing a press conference, Pandey said, “There are many countries [which have requested import of wheat from India]. We would not like to discuss… This is a matter of foreign policy.”
However, he refused to divulge details of the requests received from other countries for wheat import from India.
When asked about the trend in atta (flour) exports, the Food Secretary said, “The trend is on the high side.”
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Partha S Das, Joint Secretary, Department of Food and Public Distribution said India exported 29.70 LMT of wheat and 2.59 LMT of atta between April 1 and June 22 this financial year.
Responding to questions, Das, who heads the committee that considers other countries’ requests for wheat import from India, said requests have been received from quite a few countries and those are “under consideration”.
On May 13, the government had banned all shipments of wheat with immediate effect. It moved the export of all wheat, including high-protein durum and normal soft bread varieties, from “free” to the “prohibited” category. The decision was aimed at controlling rising prices of wheat in the domestic market.

In wake of the Russia-Ukraine war, the demand for Indian wheat has increased overseas. In the current financial year, the government estimates about 45 LMT of wheat to have been contracted for exports.
In response to a query, S Jagannathan, Joint Secretary, Food Department said about 4.74 crore ration cards have been deleted in the past eight years. It has prevented diversion of food subsidies of around Rs 33,600 crore annually, he said.
Discussing the edible oil prices, the Food Secretary said major edible oil brands have cut prices by Rs 10-15. He said the timely interventions on multiple fronts by the government have led to a falling trend in edible oil prices.

ژوئن 17, 2022

Explained: How Saudi big money has shaken up golf’s status quo

This week, Brookline, Massachusetts is hosting the ‘toughest test in golf’, as the US Open is often described as. But the last few weeks can also be referred to as the ‘toughest test of golf’ as developments on the course and off it threaten to tear the professional game apart.
The US-based PGA Tour has been the toughest, most prestigious and most lucrative golf circuit in the world, with most upcoming players aspiring to it as if it were the Holy Grail. Together with the DP World Tour (formerly called the European Tour), it has dominated the golfing scene for decades.

Now, a Saudi-funded venture with immensely deep pockets has threatened the status quo, tempting the best players in the world with lucrative contracts and guaranteed prize money to play in their LIV Golf events. Some of the top golfers have jumped ship and the PGA Tour has wasted little time in suspending their membership.Best of Express PremiumPremiumPremiumPremiumPremium
But the big names who have opted to switch sides are free to tee up at the US Open and, in all likelihood, next month’s 150th Open Championship on The Old Course at St. Andrews, considered the home of golf.
However, it seems likely that they will not be allowed to be involved in any capacity in future Ryder Cups or Presidents Cups.
What is the row all about?
The Public Investment Fund (PIF), the sovereign wealth fund of Saudi Arabia, has spent a lot of money on elite sports, which critics allege is a means to spruce up the image of the Saudi ruling regime, called ‘sportswashing’. The kingdom is accused of several human rights violations and also came under a cloud after the murder of The Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The launch of a rival venture against an established US-based tour touches a raw nerve in the USA as 15 of the 19 hijackers in the 9/11 attacks hailed from Saudi Arabia.

The PGA Tour refused to grant waivers to its players for playing in the LIV Golf events. Some of the players even resigned their membership to avoid future sanctions or litigation.
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What is the format?
LIV stands for 54 in Roman numerals and the tournaments are 54-hole affairs, in contrast to 72 on traditional tours, and played over three days, not four as is generally the case.
Each event features 48 players and has a team and individual competition. The teams have four members each. The players tee off at the same time on different holes in what is termed a ‘shotgun start’. This is to reduce the time taken for a round, in a bid to make it more TV-friendly.
How much money is on offer?
The biggest names in golf have been offered astronomical sums – often in hundreds of millions of dollars – to join the new venture. This is just the signing amount.
Fronted by former world Number 1 Greg Norman, LIV Golf has lined up eight events in 2022. Each of them will have a prize fund of $25 million, making them comfortably more lucrative than any tournament on the PGA Tour. The winner will take home $4m, another high. The final event will see the winning team getting $16m, with each member getting 25 percent.
There is no cut and the player finishing last will still be richer by $120,000. In contrast, on other tours, players missing the cut don’t get any prize money.
Who all have joined and why?
Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Reed, Charl Schwartzel, Louis Oosthuizen, Ian Poulter, Graeme McDowell and Phil Mickelson are some of the prominent names on the LIV Golf roster.
Some of them like Poulter and McDowell have justified their decision, arguing that they are global professionals, while sidestepping the moral questions thrown at them.
“No one’s going to argue that fact but we’re golfers. We’re not politicians. If Saudi Arabia want to use the game of golf as a way for them to get to where they want to be, we’re proud to help them on that journey,” McDowell said.
Poulter said: “I regard myself as a global golfer and I have been for 24 years. I’ve played on numerous tours and events around the world and that is what I’m continuing to do.”
Others didn’t hide the fact that it was about the money.
Johnson had earlier pledged his allegiance to the PGA Tour before having a change of heart and resigning his membership.
“I don’t want to play for the rest of my life, this gives me an opportunity to do what I want to do,” Johnson said.
DeChambeau calls his move “a business decision, first and foremost.”
“There was a lot of financials to it and a lot of time. I get to have a life outside of the game of golf as well. It’s given me a lot more opportunities outside of the game of golf and given me more time with my family and my future family,” DeChambeau said.

Some others are in their late 40s and early 50s and know their best golfing days are behind them. They may want to cash in while they can.
Why are so many LIV Golf players still in the US Open field?
The golf establishment hasn’t hidden its disappointment at the big names deserting the official tours. But the US Open is organised by the United States Golf Association (USGA), and not the PGA Tour. The criteria for earning a berth in the Major was decided much before LIV Golf emerged on the scene, so it was argued that denying them the opportunity to play would be unfair on those who have made it on merit. Many of them are past champions and have gained exemptions.
Are there any parallels in other sports?
If one can earn much more by playing much less, there’s a great temptation. It is the logic of T20 cricket professionals who go around the world playing in various leagues while not always turning up for their national teams. It is less taxing on the body and leaves one with ample time for themselves.

ژوئن 13, 2022

Home truths | The Indian Express

India’s industrial output rose 7.1 per cent year-on-year in April. Coming after a 11.4 per cent increase for the whole of 2021-22, it points to a recovery, albeit from the negative growth of the preceding lockdown-impacted fiscal. What’s worrying, however, is consumer non-durables production growing by just 0.3 per cent in April, on top of 3.3 per cent for 2021-22. The National Statistical Office’s data tallies with what private consumer research firms have also been putting out. NielsenIQ has estimated India’s fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector to have registered minus 4.1 per cent year-on-year volume growth in January-March, minus 2.6 per cent in October-December, and 1.4 per cent in July-September. Kantar Worldpanel has reported volume contraction in the country’s FMCG market for the last three consecutive quarters. Even the market leader Hindustan Unilever posted a 10.4 per cent sales turnover jump for the January-March quarter, but “with flat underlying volume growth”.
The simple takeaway is that the Indian consumer is buying less, although paying more for the same, if not less, volume of groceries and essentials. One reason is inflation. Most market surveys suggest high price increases to have impacted discretionary as well as staple consumption. While consumers are either cutting down on purchases or opting for lower-priced/ non-premium/unbranded products, FMCG firms have sought to push sales of smaller packs and even undertake “grammage reductions”. In other words, passing on soaring costs — whether of palm oil, wheat or packaging material — not through explicit price hikes, but by decreasing product weight/size for the same price points. There are limitations to such stratagems. Individual companies may grow significantly ahead of the market, gaining both value and volume shares. But even they would want the market itself to expand, rather than resorting to “shrinkflation” or consumers “downtrading” and “titrating” volumes.
Inflation should come under control, hopefully sooner than later. Of greater concern is the stress on incomes. Most households in India received little, apart from free grain, as stimulus during the last two years of job and income losses. As a result, they emerged from the pandemic with battered balance sheets. This is in contrast to the previous decade, where household consumption held up even as overall economic growth was dragged down by an over-leveraged corporate sector and bad loans-laden banks. That “twin-balance sheet” problem looks less of a threat. Profit margins of listed companies in 2021-22 were the highest for over a decade, with the non-performing assets ratio of banks moderating to their lowest in six years. Today, corporates and banks are better-positioned to invest and lend, respectively. But the weak balance sheets of households and government constrains their ability to spend — and that’s a real problem.
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ژوئن 6, 2022

Hate and Apology | The Indian Express

One lesson from Sunday is that an electoral majority does not entitle a political party to believe there are no red lines to its conduct, that it can dismiss every criticism as petty pandering to a “vote bank”. The hate speech against Islam that two spokespersons of the BJP peddled so glibly, on a national television channel and on social media, is reprehensible but the truth is that it was no sudden eruption of bigotry. The BJP’s electoral victories since 2014, and especially after 2019, have emboldened party activists and others of the saffron brigade to an extent that they indulge in casual everyday anti-minority actions with the confidence that they have a free hand to do this. The government, from Prime Minister Narendra Modi down, and the party, from J P Nadda down, prefer silence as the baying gets more loud and shrill, as so-called dharam sansads advocate no less than mass murder and men, in saffron, claiming to redeem Hinduism, peddle hate and misogyny. Result: Every such act that is allowed to go unpunished and uncensured emboldens the next.
If the party acted to suspend spokespersons Nupur Sharma and Naveen Jindal on Sunday, it was because the anger against their remarks was not something that could be dismissed as expressions of “sickularism” but is resonating throughout the Islamic world threatening to upend India’s most important relationships, alliances key to its strategic imperatives that Prime Minister Modi himself has nurtured. But the condemnation of hate speech for the sake of international optics is like sticking a band-aid on a festering wound. In the diplomatic embarrassment that Vice-President M Venkaiah Naidu had to suffer while on an official visit to Qatar — the Indian envoy was summoned and lectured to — is the second lesson. Such conduct is no longer protected by silos, and has wider repercussions. Prime Minister Modi once claimed that the Congress was upset that he had good relations with the Islamic world. All it took was 30 seconds of unadulterated hate spewed by the party’s face on television to send that goodwill evaporating. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, whose erudition in Bratislava is being hailed as India’s coming-of-age speech, will have to provide a better explanation for the conduct of his colleagues than reasoning that they mark the rise of the “non-elites” and “India’s way” of “correcting historical wrongs”.
India has the second largest Muslim population in the world, and irrespective of the fact that the BJP does not need their votes, as a party in office, it needs to show by word and deed that it is a government of all communities. On social media, the “trads” — hardline Hindutva trolls — are tearing up the BJP for caving in to international pressure. They are invoking the liberal posters of Salman Rushdie and Charlie Hebdo and the principles of free speech. The Government will be mistaken if it thinks two sound-bites are the problem and two suspensions the solution. Hate speech is unacceptable in itself, from the mouths of ruling party members targeting a minority it mainstreams bigotry, causes dangerous divisions, and is against the national interest. It is time this message went out from the very top. This doesn’t — and shouldn’t — need a prod from an ally in the Gulf.
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