برچسب: News And Analysis

Responsible free-agent spending is a pipeline to the Super Bowl, which is something that sounds obvious but may not always have been. The difference between teams’ merely splurging in free agency versus actually being good at it is the link between the pro scouting department and the coaching staff. I spoke with Bengals folks before the Super Bowl who were wondering why everyone (ahem, myself included) predicted they’d win so few games in 2021. They were thrilled with the idea of pairing Eli Apple and Chidobe Awuzie together. They did not believe Trey Hendrickson was a product of Dennis Allen’s defense.Why? Because their scouting staff and coaching staff were asked to do a hybrid job of bringing their evaluations together and voicing opinions. We’ll see what this year holds as we gather to instantaneously grade the individual transactions worth noting, but keep in mind that J.C. Jackson might be the cornerback who alters the market, but that does not mean he’ll significantly alter the 2022 season. The same can be said about any of the top players broken down on our best available list.We should also note the familiar refrain by this point that the contract terms we see bandied about when free agency opens are often not all they appear to be. Years vanish and nonguaranteed dollar figures drop before teams actually have to pay them. So we’ll analyze each move based on talent and fit, and take a look generally at the terms but won’t get hung up on exact dollar amounts before we know more.Jamie Germano/USA TODAY NetworkQB Mitch Trubisky to the SteelersTrubisky should be thanking his agents and any/all guiding spiritual deities for the way the past two years have worked out. After the way his Bears tenure ended, Trubisky sidled up next to Brian Daboll in Buffalo and sparked interest in his revival. Now, he lands in Pittsburgh, which will give him a chance to win the post–Ben Roethlisberger job outright with a great running game and solid receiver core. Trubisky goes from Daboll to Matt Canada, another talented coordinator who can divert backfield traffic with his inspired presnap game. Trubisky also falls into line behind a head coach who, unlike Matt Nagy in Chicago, is tenured enough not to have to worry about legitimizing Trubisky just to keep his job. The politics of the quarterback position in Chicago were a mess. In Pittsburgh, where the Steelers simply don’t post losing seasons, Trubisky can springboard himself into a future that looks far brighter than it might have a few seasons ago. Also, replacing Roethlisberger, as daunting as it seems, is not the same after the future Hall of Famer’s middling career finale. Had Roethlisberger been forced out, or left any lingering animus between himself and the organization, there’s a chance Trubisky could’ve gotten caught in the crossfire. This is less like Cam Newton succeeding Tom Brady on the Patriots, which should decrease any needless pressure.This is about the best Pittsburgh was going to do in free agency. Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins are spoken for. Jimmy Garoppolo will likely drive the market out of the sensible range.GRADE: C+Edge Haason Reddick to the EaglesThe Eagles landed some pass-rushing talent to supplant the (chosen) loss of Derek Barnett in free agency. The former situational inside linebacker turned deadly outside rusher, who played on more than 80% of the Panthers’ snaps last year, adds a different dimension for the Eagles than they’ve had previously. In the era of simulated pressure, Reddick is athletic enough to approach the line and drift back into coverage to cloud throwing lanes. He’ll immediately improve Philadelphia’s prospects against a lineup of quarterbacks in the NFC East that are positively feastworthy outside of Dak Prescott (who is strangely one of the most-blitzed quarterbacks in the NFL). He could easily be in for his third straight double-digit sack season. Philadelphia was 21st in pressure percentage last season, and if the Eagles intend to continue blitzing at the paltry 16% rate they did a year ago, they’ll need a spark such as Reddick. GRADE: BDe’Vondre Campbell re-signs with the PackersWith the Davante Adams situation simmering, Brian Gutekunst avoided one contractual landmine by re-signing Campbell, a linebacker who changed Green Bay’s makeup defensively a year ago and had arguably the best season at the position outside of Micah Parsons. Campbell was fantastic and wouldn’t come cheap like he did a year ago as a flier prospect leaving the Cardinals (what’s going on with the talent sieve out of Arizona, by the way?). The off-ball linebacker market exploded over the last two years, with Darius Leonard and Fred Warner both getting paid significantly. Somehow, Campbell comes in under their $19-plus million price tag. GRADE: AG Laken Tomlinson to the JetsAn under-the-radar signing here, but the Jets have now locked down both of their guard spots heading into the 2022 season, which is a monstrously important task given the importance of the position to outside-zone principles. Tomlinson is essentially a plug-and-play option, having played under Jets run-game coordinator John Benton before Benton’s arrival with the Jets. Tomlinson is quick off the snap, possessing the necessary speed to get out ahead of defensive linemen chasing the running back play side. The former first-round pick found his comfort zone in Kyle Shanahan’s system and now heads to New York on a rapidly improving offensive line. GRADE: B+G Alex Cappa to the BengalsBengals general manager Duke Tobin boldly defended his maligned offensive line at the combine, reciting Joe Burrow’s statistics and mentioning that Burrow would not have had the season he did without their pieces up front. It was an admirable move but also foretold the team’s plunge into free agency. Burrow cannot sustain another season like the one he did in 2021, taking a league-high 51 regular-season sacks and then 19 more in the playoffs. Cincinnati’s offense will sometimes ask Burrow to hold on to the ball for a bit longer (even though he had one of the quickest snap-to-throw times in the NFL last year, about 0.02 seconds faster than Mac Jones), as it’s more reminiscent of a pre-2019 pro style system. That means offensive linemen need to hold their blocks for longer, at times. While Cappa made a name for himself in the Tom Brady Bucs era, and Brady is a notoriously quick-release player, the Bengals’ staff rarely misses in free agency and has built its team’s foundation in the veteran market over the past three years.The fact that they got Cappa for a reported four years and $40 million, about $6 million below the league high for the position, is a bit stunning and shows that Cincinnati has crawled from the team players avoid to the one for which they might take a little less to play.GRADE: AC Ryan Jensen re-signs with the BuccaneersJensen slots just under Frank Ragnow as the NFL’s second-highest-paid center, which is the kind of transaction the Buccaneers can make now that they are certain they’ve lured Brady out of his brief retirement. One could argue that the center position, which has a handle on in-game protection shifts and calls, is more valuable than ever given the increased propensity for teams to simulate pressure and force linemen to block ghosts. Former Tampa Bay guard Ali Marpet told me before Super Bowl LV that life was good blocking for Brady, but Jensen has earned the top coin and is not just a lineman riding the coattails of a quick-release quarterback. Jensen has incredible flexibility and speed, rarely leaving another blocker in the weeds if he’s uncovered at the snap. Yes, he’s 30 years old, but that position tends to age a little better than outside spots that deal with more consistent speed rushing.GRADE: BEdge Emmanuel Ogbah to the DolphinsOgbah is an agile defender who will fit well in the Dolphins’ Bill Belichick–inspired system, which is placing more of an emphasis on rushing as few defenders as possible and dropping more defenders into coverage. Ogbah, who is 28, cashes in on a deal reportedly worth $16.5 million per season, which is worth breaking out and discussing independently. There were general managers who planned to stay at an arm’s length from this year’s edge market, especially after last year when teams such as the Bengals and Patriots cleaned up on premium young talent for cheaper rates. The market was expected to overheat in 2022. But landing Ogbah is a win for stunt-happy DC Josh Boyer, and Miami doesn’t end up paying too much of a tax for the privilege.GRADE: B+RB Chase Edmonds to the DolphinsIf the Dolphins are indeed planning to build around Tua Tagovailoa, signing Edmunds to a reportedly two-year deal that isn’t breaking the bank is a good start. What Miami probably loves about Edmonds is his ability to complement the quarterback in the passing game, especially when the play breaks down. Kyler Murray struggled generally with checkdown throws a year ago and often found himself struggling to hit outlet passes quickly when the lanes were swarmed with bigger defenders. Edmonds could often be seen juking and weaving his way into vacant space for Murray to make life easier. He could be a similar, heady security blanket for Tagovailoa.GRADE: B-
Geoff Burke/USA TODAY SportsG Brandon Scherff to the JaguarsThe 30-year-old Scherff, a former top-five pick, is finally out of Washington and will replace the departing Andrew Norwell in Jacksonville. The move would seem to be a slight upgrade in terms of skill set, though Norwell was no slouch and played 17 solid games for the Jaguars last year. He was a former All-Pro and was one of the bigger free agents signed by the Jaguars during the pre–Urban Meyer era. Scherff is the first major move of the Doug Pederson–Trent Baalke partnership and signals an obvious desire to give Trevor Lawrence some time and space in the backfield. With the franchising of Cam Robinson, it’s clear the Jaguars have pivoted a bit in their evaluation of talent up front and aren’t exactly following the prevailing school of thought upstream. Scherff, when healthy, can anchor a side of the line and stabilize both the tackle and guard positions within his reach, but he has not played a full 16-game season since 2016.
GRADE: CChristian Kirk to the JaguarsIt’s possible to think the move is fine and absolutely hate the initially reported cost. We heard at least one general manager talking about the depth of this year’s wide receiver class, but the Jaguars continued their free-agent headhunting spree by signing Kirk to one of the more lucrative receiver deals in the league. If the reported, agent-veiled figures hold up, Kirk is going to slide in right behind DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones as the third-highest-paid receiver in football (I am sure Davante Adams’s agency is doing backflips right now). One reason for optimism? Kirk was one of the best wide receivers in the league on deep contested catches. The trend of contested-catch wideouts seeing their APY elevated slightly, especially when they come to teams with developing young quarterbacks (see: Kenny Golladay and Daniel Jones) is shaking up the market. Still, it’s hard not to wonder if this cash could have been spent better elsewhere. The Jaguars’ approach continues to be one of aggression, but it lacks a sensible narrative tying it all together.
GRADE: D+WR Mike Williams re-signs with the ChargersWilliams was the most vertically oriented wide receiver in football last year and saw his target share increase by nearly 50% with the arrival of a new coaching staff. Clearly, despite a 58% catch rate, he dutifully filled the schematic role laid out for him. While it may be difficult to get excited about Williams, given that he could disappear for longer stretches of the season after hammering an opponent and getting coverage rolled in his direction, the fact that he possesses the ability and the size to completely dismantle an opposition’s game plan four or five times a season is well worth the investment. Minus any true, durable vertical threats on the market, the Chargers had no choice but to allocate $40 million annually to their top two wideouts (both Williams and Keenan Allen are making about $20 million per season).
GRADE: C+RB James Conner re-signs with the CardinalsConner is a phenomenal player, and a tough runner who brings the offense a punch at the goal line. But if I was a member of the Cardinals’ front office I would wonder what else is out there and who might be able to get me a little more, given that my running backs are facing eight-man boxes almost 10% less frequently than Jonathan Taylor and Dalvin Cook, and 20% less frequently than Derrick Henry. Arizona’s continued veteran grab is a curious strategy for general manager Steve Keim, whose contract was recently extended nearly through the next presidential term despite not reaching the divisional round since the Bruce Arians era. It’s moves like this that confound. The running game can be a gutting weapon for four-wide teams at the right moment. Conner, according to Next Gen Stats, was net negative in rushing yards over expectation. GRADE: D+ TE Zach Ertz re-signs with the CardinalsThere’s a premium placed on comfort blanket receivers for Kyler Murray, who is going to struggle to replicate his downfield success in 2022 with the departure of Kirk and needs to become a more traditional Air Raid quarterback if the Cardinals are going to succeed. That means getting rid of the ball faster than Jared Goff and Daniel Jones (Murray is upper-middle of the pack in terms of snap-to-throw times). Ertz was fifth among tight ends in targeted air yards last season, finishing closely behind Travis Kelce, meaning the midseason investment was worth the rental for Arizona. Still, Ertz doesn’t offer as much as he used to as a run blocker and at 31, isn’t helping the top-heavy Cardinals reduce their status as one of the oldest teams in the NFL. GRADE: CMore NFL Coverage:!function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s){if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function()
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A brochure from a sham get-rich-quick seminar on real estate purchasing might tell you to stay calm when the market panics, and panic when the market stays calm. It’s the kind of advice we hear often and rarely follow, and the same can be said for NFL teams as they approach free agency in 2022. Indeed, most of the good damage, most of the economical savviness has already taken place. A handful of teams went head hunting last year during the pandemic at a time when most owners were locking their checkbooks in a fireproof safe due to the shrinking salary cap. The Patriots got Matthew Judon for a little more than $13.5 million per season. The Bengals got Trey Hendrickson for $15 million per season. In this market right now, Hendrickson is making more than $20 million a year. Judon is probably getting close to $18 million. And so the parameters for success have shifted from economical opportunities to avoiding desperation now that the coffers are full again and the league’s council of billionaire playboys has a full pocket of television and gambling revenue money to spend. The Commanders doled out semi-serious capital on Carson Wentz. The Titans are paying Harold Landry as much as the Saints are paying Cam Jordan. For those living in the coastal northeast, free agency now feels a lot like trying to find and purchase a home. A two bedroom, one bath for $800,000? Why not? So when composing this list of teams who will define the next few weeks, we’re being careful. It’s not just who will spend the most money, but who will make the most of opportunities in a market rife with pitfalls. We wish we could retroactively celebrate the Bengals, who may be relatively quiet this year despite being one of the six highest-spending teams in the NFL over Zac Taylor’s first two seasons. We wish there was enough space on the internet to finger wag the Jaguars, who were set up beautifully by their previous regime to take advantage of the depressed market and instead ended up … you know. Without much time to go before the illegal tampering really gets interesting, let’s get into it. Eric Hartline/USA TODAY SportsLos Angeles ChargersIf the Khalil Mack trade and Mike Williams signing are any indication, the Chargers are not going to take what happened this offseason in their division lightly. Brandon Staley was gutted by a frantic loss to the Raiders in the season finale and is trying to combat the talent surge with a rebuilt pass rush and, likely, some improvements at the cornerback spot. This is where the Chargers could move from improved to highly competitive. It’s been trendy for years to cite them as an outside Super Bowl contender, but a relatively healthy season, coupled with a handful of coverage players added in free agency and some thickness on the defensive interior could make this more of a reality. Staley knows this roster core could trend significantly in one direction or another based on how the next few months go. He’s also a hell of a recruiter. We’ll see if that translates to targeted urgency. Miami Dolphins/Denver BroncosWe talked about this a little bit on the latest MMQB podcast, but we’ll expand on it here. We’re coupling these teams together due to the root similarities of their offensive identities. If Nathaniel Hackett decides to keep his ties to the Matt LaFleur/Kyle Shanahan system (he started as a pure West Coast offense coach and ended up helping the Packers blend that system into the Shanahan system to aid in Aaron Rodgers’s transition) and Mike McDaniel decides to stay in his roots, we could have some interesting cross-bidding. An example? Rodger Saffold was released by the Titans this week in a cash-saving maneuver. When Saffold came over from the Rams, I was told that he was an ideal outside zone guard, the kind of interior player who can make a lot of the requisite blocks. He could be a finishing piece for either of those franchises. Laken Tomlinson is also available. When Kyle Shanahan went to San Francisco, he began his career with a free agency mini-binge that helped him set up the offense. Players like Kyle Juszczyk. Weston Richburg. A Shanahan offense needs top-removing speed at the No. 1 receiver position. An extremely mobile center. Could Hackett and McDaniel find themselves eyeing similar players exhibiting these traits? Could other teams who are trying to copy the scheme be eyeing similar players? In that way, could we have a miniature post-Moneyball OBP spending surge on our hands? Indianapolis ColtsThe exciting part of the Carson Wentz trade is that we know they have to make a move now. Credit goes to Chris Ballard and Frank Reich, who have been anything but complacent after the stunning retirement of Andrew Luck. Jimmy Garoppolo feels like a front-runner, though Kirk Cousins and Matt Ryan are in tenuous situations at best. It feels like a much larger section of the league would be open to Indianapolis in a way they weren’t to Washington. This is an offense quarterbacks want to play in. This is a team that is one non-destructive quarterback away from reaching the realm of Super Bowl contention. If I were a rival executive, I wouldn’t love the idea of Chris Ballard having more than $70 million in cap space in a winnable division with some of those core pieces. Losing former defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus hurts, but one or two premium upgrades plus some comfortable adequacy at the quarterback position makes this team a favorite to win the AFC South. Minnesota VikingsNew general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah comes from Cleveland, one of the youngest rosters in football (strategically), and inherits another one of the youngest rosters in football. I think the Vikings will be notable this year not for who they bring in but who they cast out into the market (if they decide to gut). I can’t imagine a Harvard and Stanford educated economist overspending to try and make a flailing attempt at finishing second to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Sorry to Vikings fans who envisioned something of a splash. Andrew Berry’s Browns went in notable, methodical waves trimming out the contractual fat before they felt they had a contending roster in place. The Vikings could put the best available quarterback on the market, roll with Kellen Mond for a season and evaluate later. Or, they could maximize value for some of their aging stars who would make for contending pieces on other rosters. The point here is to keep an eye on Minnesota but not in the traditional sense. One of the most interesting conversations I had at the combine was about Mensah and his long-term vision; how he could be the first general manger to truly bridge the gap between analytics people and football people. His first moves will be telling in terms of how they want to accomplish this, and how collaborative the effort will be between the front office and a new, young coaching staff. Mark Konezny/USA TODAY SportsAtlanta FalconsThe Falcons have already lost Calvin Ridley for the season, and could have been planning to trade him anyway. They are barely under the salary cap. They are a .500 presence in the NFL next year at best. It may finally be time to hit the eject button on this version of the roster. Second-year general manager Terry Fontenot shouldn’t have to wait any longer. The Falcons have some big pieces sitting around. Deion Jones. Grady Jarrett. Matt Ryan. Off-ball linebackers, interior pass rush and elite(ish) quarterback play may be some of the most premium desires on the market right now. Atlanta needs to break itself out of this aggressive pursuit of the middle. The defensive scheme doesn’t seem to fit the talent. The offense is uninspired and jumbled. Arthur Smith is a good, adaptive play caller but feels hemmed in by what is available to him at the moment. While no coach is going to agree to be part of a teardown, the long-term health of the Falcons may dictate those decisions. In the process, they could seriously shake up the landscape. Carolina PanthersWith the Commanders now out of the quarterback market, there may not be a more desperate team in football than the Panthers. Matt Rhule would have likely jumped if the right college job came his way in the middle of last season. He may very well see the writing on the wall. The only way to save this thing is to take a massive swing at the quarterback position to band-aid the disastrous Sam Darnold trade. Carolina has a workable amount of cap space and seem to have sent out the anonymously-sourced feelers on a Christian McCaffrey trade (which would be a painfully bad decision if they actually went through with it). They need draft equity. They need cap clearance. They need a secondary, an offensive line and complementary receivers. They need a quarterback to tie it all together and they need some wins on the board to keep the understandably impatient David Tepper from pivoting in a different direction. I have long advocated for someone in an organization to manage the coaches and general managers in times like this. So often, historically bad damage is done when power players try to spend and trade their way out of a black hole. What will Carolina be allowed to do here? What direction are they headed? Cincinnati Bengals/Pittsburgh Steelers/Las Vegas Raiders/Philadelphia EaglesWhile these teams are not all equal, they are all contending franchises that have to decide what is next. It’s safe to say that runs in Cincinnati and Philadelphia surprised, while the Steelers knew they were reaching the end of an era. The Raiders could not have known what the 2021 season had in store for them, unless they were some kind of grossly disturbed fan fiction writer. But they all have choices. The Bengals are somewhat of a destination now. They could enter the market like many contenders do, plucking off veteran talent at friendlier salaries to bolster another crack at the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh has cap space but could acknowledge some of their realities and submit to a rebuild … or they could come out swinging as they always have, even at the times we might least expect. The Raiders made the playoffs last year and have an ascending Derek Carr paired with Josh McDaniels, while the Eagles also snuck into the seventh-seed thanks to some inspired play-calling and a reconfigured offensive identity. They have a notable amount of draft capital going into 2022. While football is less like baseball and sometimes we’re harder pressed to figure out who is “going for it”, even the slightest lean in one direction might give us a hint. And the way that some of these teams end up leaning, especially given some of their reputations, their high-profile coaching staffs or other advantages, could divert some good players from going elsewhere. Arizona CardinalsThe Cardinals entered last year as the oldest roster in football, which is something considering the Buccaneers had a quarterback eligible for medicare. They had the most players over 30 on their opening day roster. The pending contract decision on Kyler Murray is part of a laundry list of issues general manager Steve Keim and head coach Kliff Kingsbury have to fix. Kingsbury admitted at the combine that his offense went punchless without DeAndre Hopkins. That is an issue that needs to be addressed, which is made more interesting by the fact that almost the entire Cardinal offense is hitting free agency. Most of their pass rush is on the market (and, as we noted, edge rushers are cashing in this year). Most of their skill position players are on the market (and, as NFL Network noted this week, Christian Kirk is going to get more money on the open market than we’d expect). Arizona has about enough cap space to afford a nice four bedroom colonial in a good school district and its past two first-round picks have yet to establish themselves as prominent, every down players. If the newly-extended Keim decides to slash and burn the roster, it could change some teams’ attack plans. If he decides to (somehow) spend his way out of this wildfire, it could also alter the way we look at the free agent and draft boards, respectively. More NFL Coverage:• Aaron Donald’s Life at the Top
• Are the Packers Done With Jordan Love?
• NFL Free Agency 2022: Ranking the Top 221 Players
• Winners and Losers of the Rodgers Contract, Wilson Trade and the NFL’s Wild Day!function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s){if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function()
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