A slew of short-term deals and player opt-outs makes for some deep waters in this winter’s free-agent pool. From the MVP-caliber bats to the starting pitchers likely bound for Cooperstown to the second smorgasbord of stud shortstops in as many years to an intriguing Japanese pitcher and plenty of other impact players around the diamond, there’s a lot to work with on the free-agent front.
Here’s a look at the top 20 players who could be available (pending opt-out decisions that must be made shortly after the conclusion of the World Series). The ages listed are the players’ season ages for 2023 (i.e., the age they will be as of June 30, or roughly midseason).
1. Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees, age 31
Have yourself a walk year, sir. When Judge turned down the Yankees’ seven-year, $213.5 million extension offer at the start of the season, it was an enormous bet on himself, given his age and injury history. But Judge went on to have an enormous, history-making year. What he did at the plate was astounding. But the 6-foot-7, 282-pound Judge was also serviceable in center field and adept on the basepaths, which only adds to his allure. It will be fascinating to see how much the Yankees are willing to go above and beyond their initial offer if a bidding war breaks out with another club, such as Judge’s hometown(ish) San Francisco Giants.
2. Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets, age 35
Can opt out of $32.5 million guarantee for 2023
Even after missing more than a calendar year because of elbow inflammation and a stress reaction in his shoulder, deGrom has made it clear he will opt out of his remaining deal and test the market. In proving, upon his early August return to the Mets’ rotation, that he remains an elite starting arm on a Hall of Fame trajectory, deGrom could challenge teammate Max Scherzer for the highest average annual value ever for a starter. What will be interesting to see is how far teams will go in terms of length of deal, given the aforementioned injury history.
3. Trea Turner, SS, Dodgers, age 30
The 2021-22 free-agent shortstop class was a doozy, and Turner fronts another very strong one this winter. Turner brings a beautiful blend of power, average, defensive capability at a premium position and game-changing wheels (100th percentile in sprint speed). His value could actually accelerate in the pitch-clock environment, with the addition of pickoff limits.
4. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals, age 32
Can opt out of five-year, $144 million guarantee
Arenado said earlier this year that he does not intend to opt out, and he could stick to that. But he’s posted the best season of his stellar career. One of the greatest defensive third basemen in history, Arenado also delivers a power bat that has squashed any questions about how Coors Field once aided his offense. The question is whether he will opt out, renegotiate with the Cards or test the open market.
5. Carlos Correa, SS, Twins, age 28
Can opt out of $35.1 million guarantee for 2023
Correa’s three-year pact with the Twins last winter (including $35.1 million player options for both 2023 and ’24) was a legit shock. Now, he has the option of seeking a longer deal in the open market this offseason or remaining with a Minnesota team for whom he quickly settled in as a valued leader. Correa had a solid year for the Twins, but his iffy injury history (and the wealth of available shortstop talent) clouded his market last year, and his defensive metrics regressed in 2022.
6. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox, age 30
Can opt out of three-year, $60 million guarantee
Bogaerts’ offensive ability is unquestioned. He has had at least a 128 OPS+ (or 28% better than league average) in each of the last five seasons, and he’s done it in a pressure-packed market. And with an 89th-percentile showing in Outs Above Average, there ought to be no question about his current capability at short, even if he might ultimately move elsewhere in the diamond by the end of a long-term deal.
7. Justin Verlander, RHP, Astros, age 40
Can opt out of $25 million guarantee for 2023
Apparently age ain’t nothing but a number for Verlander, who became the oldest starting pitcher to not only make a viable return from Tommy John but to do so at a Cy Young-caliber level. It was a stunning season even for somebody with a Cooperstown-worthy pedigree, and now we’ll see where it leads in terms of market value.
8. Dansby Swanson, SS, Braves, age 29
At a bare minimum, Swanson gives a team league-average offense and a dependable glove at a premium spot. But he is also capable of elite stretches at the plate, and, while other sabermetric sources did not think as highly of him, Outs Above Average rated him in the 100th percentile defensively this season. It will be interesting to see if his hometown Braves let his market linger, as it did for Freddie Freeman last winter.
9. Edwin Díaz, RHP, Mets, age 29
His Timmy Trumpet-aided entrance is reason enough to get excited about Díaz, but the stats are pretty good, too. After some initial awkwardness in his first season in Queens in 2019, Díaz settled into a strong tenure with the Mets in which he re-established himself as one of the best closers in the game, racking up K’s, limiting walks and long balls and closing out games in a big market.
10. Carlos Rodón, LHP, Giants, age 30
Can opt out of $22.5 million guarantee for 2023
Though he had a breakthrough 2021 season with the White Sox, Rodón’s earning power was limited by concerns about left shoulder soreness and fatigue that had limited him in the second half. But a terrific season with San Francisco could set him up for a bigger deal this time around. He has a wipeout fastball-slider combo.
11. Chris Bassitt, RHP, Mets, age 34
Though he was not the most heralded of the Mets’ starting pitching acquisitions prior to 2022, Bassitt proved to be every bit as reliable as he had been in Oakland, delivering a career high in innings and at times fronting a rotation temporarily robbed of Scherzer and deGrom. He would be an attractive option for teams that don’t want to break the bank for deGrom or Verlander.
12. Brandon Nimmo, CF, Mets, age 30
Speed, good defense, a bit of power and solid strikeout and walk rates will make Nimmo an attractive option for teams that aren’t in the Judge bidding. The only major knock on Nimmo has been health. But new training methods kept him on the field for more games than in any season since 2018. That will help his stock.
13. Koudai Senga, RHP, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks, age 30
Though it is not a guarantee that Senga will sign with an MLB team, he is expected to weigh offers from them this winter. And with a career 2.59 ERA and 1.11 WHIP (along with a fastball that has been clocked at 101.9 mph) in 11 seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball, he will be targeted by a wide number of teams in need of a starting boost.
14. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Dodgers, age 35
We don’t know for sure that Kershaw will pitch in 2023. He’s had a Hall of Fame-worthy career, he’s dealt with chronic back issues and — much like the legendary Sandy Koufax, with whom he is often compared — he might not try to squeeze every last inning out of his arm. But even with his innings again limited in 2022, Kershaw showed he is still a master at his craft. And whether it’s re-signing (again) with the Dodgers or following the longtime industry speculation and pitching for the Rangers near his Dallas home, he would obviously draw interest.
15. Tyler Anderson, LHP, Dodgers, age 33
Anderson’s one-year deal with the Dodgers — coming off a 2021 season in which he posted a 4.53 ERA for the Mariners and Pirates — didn’t garner much attention. But as tends to be the case, the Dodgers got the best out of him. Coming off his highest innings total since 2018 and finding consistent success as a strike-thrower with an excellent changeup, Anderson looks to be a nice stabilizing rotation presence.
16. José Abreu, 1B, White Sox, age 36
A model of consistency since coming over from Cuba in 2014, Abreu has had only one full season in which his OPS was below .800 and he played fewer than 145 games (2018, when he won the AL Silver Slugger honor anyway). As was the case three years ago, the White Sox might value his leadership too much to let him get away.
17. Willson Contreras, C, Cubs, age 31
Concerns about Contreras’ defense limited his trade value, ultimately resulting in no deal at a Trade Deadline in which he had seemed an obvious candidate to move. Those same concerns could affect his free-agent market. But Contreras’ abnormal offensive production from the catching spot is difficult to ignore, and, if the Cubs don’t re-sign him, other teams could be interested in using him in a hybrid catching-DH role, as the Cubs did.
18. Josh Bell, 1B, Padres, age 30
Bell is an imposing, switch-hitting presence in a lineup but also an inconsistent one. His 2022 season, in which he slashed .311/.390/.504 in the first half before falling off in the second (amid a trade from Washington to San Diego) makes it difficult to read his market.
19. Nathan Eovaldi, RHP, Red Sox, age 33
Though Eovaldi was particularly homer-prone in 2022 and has had Tommy John twice, his raw stuff (including a fastball that averages 96 mph), the depth of his repertoire and his postseason pedigree make him worth including here.
20. Adam Wainwright, RHP, Cardinals, age 41
Teammates Albert Pujols and Yadi Molina announced their retirement plans, but Wainwright has been non-committal. His curveball has aged like a fine wine, and Waino remains a highly effective rotation weapon capable of durability and dependability. It would seem fair to guess that he’ll either return to the Cards or hang ‘em up.
Honorable mentions
The above list only scratches the surface. Here’s a depth chart of some of the intriguing guys at various positions.*
*This list could expand depending on various option decisions.
Catcher: Omar Narváez, Gary Sánchez, Christian Vázquez
Infielder: Jesus Aguilar, Elvis Andrus, Brandon Belt, Evan Longoria ($13 million club option), Trey Mancini, Jean Segura ($17 million club option), Justin Turner ($16 million club option), Kolten Wong ($10 million club option)
Outfielder: Andrew Benintendi, Michael Brantley, Michael Conforto, Joey Gallo, Mitch Haniger, Joc Pederson, Tommy Pham ($12 million mutual option)
DH: Matt Carpenter, Nelson Cruz ($16 million mutual option), J.D. Martinez
Utility: Brandon Drury, Adam Frazier, Jurickson Profar ($7.5 million player option)
Starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco ($14 million club option), Mike Clevinger, Johnny Cueto, Zach Davies, Zach Eflin, Kyle Gibson, Zack Greinke, Andrew Heaney, Corey Kluber, Jordan Lyles ($11 million club option), Sean Manaea, Martín Pérez, José Quintana, Ross Stripling, Noah Syndergaard, Jameson Taillon, Michael Wacha, Taijuan Walker ($6 million player option)
Relief pitcher: Zack Britton, Michael Fulmer, Chad Green, Brad Hand, Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Seth Lugo, Rafael Montero, Matt Moore, Adam Ottavino, David Robertson, Taylor Rogers, Will Smith ($13 million club option)
.
