INDIA RUPEE Rupee seen higher on current account deficit surprise, dollar retreat

INDIA RUPEE Rupee seen higher on current account deficit surprise, dollar retreat

MUMBAI, Sept 30 (Reuters) – The Indian rupee is expected to open higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday, after the country reported a lower-than-expected current account deficit for the June quarter.The dollar index pulling back further from multi-year highs will likely be an additional boost for the rupee, traders said.The rupee is likely to open around 81.65-81.70 per dollar, up from 81.86 in the previous session.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRegisterIndia posted a CAD of $23.9 billion in the April-June period, wider than $13.4 billion in the preceding quarter but lower than $30.5 billion that economists were expecting.In terms of percentage of the GDP, the CAD widened to 2.8%, the highest in four years. A Reuters poll of 18 economists were expecting CAD of 3.6% of the GDP.”A slightly larger services surplus, and remittances, ensured the deficit did not widen dramatically,” said Rahul Bajoria, chief India economist at Barclays Bank.Bajoria expects the CAD to remain elevated in the coming quarters, thanks to the revival in domestic demand and the ongoing impact of elevated commodity prices.Traders await the Reserve Bank of India’s policy decision at 1000 IST (0430 GMT). The surging Treasury yields and the resultant pressure on the rupee is likely to prompt the RBI reason to deliver a 50-basis-point rate hike. read more “In the context how quickly the rupee has fallen over the last few days, we think it is almost certain the RBI will deliver a 50 basis point hike and a hawkish commentary,” a trader at a Mumbai-based bank said.FTSE Russel said India will be retained on its watch list for a potential upgrade to Market Accessibility Level ‘1’ and for consideration for inclusion in the FTSE Emerging Markets Government Bond Index (EMGBI).”FTSE Russell outcome reduces the likelihood that India would be added to GBI-EM, as it suggests that there have not been sufficient progress on overcoming operational hurdles,” DBS said in a note.The dollar index dropped about 1% on Thursday to near 112, pulling back away from the two-decade high of 114.78. A rally in the British pound to above 1.10 to the dollar pulled down the gauge.KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 81.82; onshore one-month forward premium at 26 paise** USD/INR NSE October futures closed at 82.0175 on Thursday** USD/INR forward premium for end October is 24 paise** Dollar index at 112.12** Brent crude futures down 0.3% at $88.2 per barrel** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 3.79%** SGX Nifty nearest-month futures down 0.6% at 16,715** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $255.9 million worth of Indian shares on Sept. 28** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $45.8 million worth of Indian bonds on Sept. 28Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRegisterReporting by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Rashmi AichOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. .

Wall St Week Ahead Recession fears loom over U.S. value stocks

Wall St Week Ahead Recession fears loom over U.S. value stocks

A screen displays trading informations for stocks on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., June 27, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRegisterNEW YORK, July 15 (Reuters) – Fears of a potential economic slowdown are clouding the outlook for value stocks, which have outperformed broader indexes this year in the face of surging inflation and rising interest rates.Value stocks – commonly defined as those trading at a discount on metrics such as book value or price-to-earnings – have typically underperformed their growth counterparts over the past decade, when the S&P 500’s (.SPX) gains were driven by tech-focused giants such as Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) and Apple Inc (AAPL.O).That dynamic shifted this year, as the Federal Reserve kicked off its first interest rate-hike cycle since 2018, disproportionately hurting growth stocks, which are more sensitive to higher interest rates. The Russell 1000 value index (.RLV) is down around 13% year-to-date, while the Russell 1000 growth index (.RLG) has fallen about 26%.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRegisterThis month, however, fears that the Fed’s monetary policy tightening could bring on a U.S. recession have shifted the momentum away from value stocks, which tend to be more sensitive to the economy. The Russell value index is up 0.7% in July, compared with a 3.4% gain for its growth-stock counterpart.”If you think we are in a recession or are going into a recession, that does not necessarily … work to the advantage of value stocks,” said Chuck Carlson, chief executive at Horizon Investment Services.The nascent shift to growth stocks is one example of how investors are adjusting portfolios in the face of a potential U.S. economic downturn. BofA Global Research on Thursday cut its year-end target price for the S&P 500 to 3,600 from 4,500 previously and became the latest Wall Street bank to forecast a coming recession. read more The index closed at 3,863.16 on Friday and is down 18.95% this year.Corporate earnings arriving in force next week will give investors a better idea of how soaring inflation has affected companies’ bottom lines, with results from Goldman Sachs , Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Tesla among those on deck.For much of the year, value stocks benefited from broader market trends. Energy shares, which comprise around 7% of the Russell 1000 value index, soared over the first half of 2022, jumping along with oil prices as supply constraints for crude were exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.But energy shares along with crude prices and other commodities have tumbled in recent weeks on concerns that a recession would sap demand.A recession also stands to weigh on bank stocks, with a slowing economy hurting loan growth and increasing credit losses. Financial shares represent nearly 19% of the value index. read more An earnings beat from Citigroup, however, buoyed bank shares on Friday, with the S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK)gaining 5.76%.At the same time, tech and other growth companies also tend to have businesses that are less cyclical and more likely able to weather a broad economic slowdown.”People pay a premium for growth stocks when growth is scarce,” said Burns McKinney, portfolio manager at NFJ Investment Group.JPMorgan analysts earlier this week wrote they believe growth stocks have a “tactical opportunity” to make up lost ground, citing cheaper valuations after this year’s sharp sell-off as one of the reasons.Value stock proponents cite many reasons for the investing style to continue its run.Growth stocks are still more expensive than value shares on a historical basis, with the Russell 1000 growth index trading at a 65% premium to its value counterpart, compared to a 35% premium over the past 20 years, according to Refinitiv Datastream.Meanwhile, earnings per share for value companies are expected to rise 15.6% this year, more than twice the rate of growth companies, Credit Suisse estimates.Data from UBS Global Wealth Management on Thursday showed value stocks tend to outperform growth stocks when inflation is running above 3% – around a third of the 9.1% annual growth U.S. consumer prices registered in June. read more Josh Kutin, head of asset allocation, North America at Columbia Threadneedle, believes a possible U.S. recession in the next year would be a mild one, leaving economically sensitive value stocks primed to outperform if growth picks up.”If I had to pick one, I’d still pick value over growth,” he said. “But that conviction has come down since the start of the year,” Kutin said.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRegisterReporting by Lewis Krauskopf, additional reporting by David Randall and Ira Iosebashvili; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Richard ChangOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. .

Asia Gold High prices drag India discounts to 7-week low; China demand sluggish

Asia Gold High prices drag India discounts to 7-week low; China demand sluggish

A saleswoman displays a gold necklace inside a jewellery showroom on the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya, a major gold buying festival, in Kolkata, India, May 7, 2019. REUTERS/Rupak De ChowdhuriRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRegister

  • India sees discount of up to $10/oz vs $9 last week
  • Indian buyers will wait for a hefty correction- dealer
  • Buyers in China cautious, conserving their expenditure – analyst

June 10 (Reuters) – Gold discounts in India this week were stretched to their highest level in seven weeks as higher prices repelled demand, while fresh concerns over the spread of COVID in top-consumer China left buyers reluctant to make purchases.This week, dealers in India were offering a discount of up to $10 an ounce over official domestic prices — inclusive of the 10.75% import and 3% sales levies, up from the last week’s discount of $9.Retail buying in India will remain weak, especially from rural areas as farmers focus on planting of summer-sown crops, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a private bullion importing bank.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRegister“In May, prices were attractive. Retail consumers were buying for weddings. Now buyers will wait for a hefty correction,” the dealer said.Weddings are one of the biggest drivers of gold purchases in India.In China, gold was being sold at a discount of $1.5 to a premium of $0.5 an ounce versus global benchmark spot rates .Physical gold demand in China is pretty sluggish, StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell said, adding that people haven’t been coming back into the market yet after lockdowns were eased, as they are cautious about the outlook and are conserving their expenditure for now.China’s commercial hub of Shanghai faces an unexpected round of mass COVID-19 testing for most residents this weekend – just 10 days after a city-wide lockdown was lifted. read more COVID-related restrictions weighed on demand in China in May and “the average trading volumes of Au9999 – a proxy of Chinese wholesale gold demand – witnessed the weakest May since 2013,” the World Gold Council said in a monthly note.In Hong Kong, gold continued to be sold at a discount of about $1.8 an ounce to a $1 premium, while in Japan, gold was sold between a premium of 50 cents and at par with the benchmark.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRegisterReporting by Eileen Soreng, Bharat Govind Gautam in Bengaluru, Rajendra Jhadav in Mumbai; Editing by Shailesh KuberOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. .

Oil jumps after Saudi Arabia hikes crude prices

Oil jumps after Saudi Arabia hikes crude prices

A drilling rig operates in the Permian Basin oil and natural gas production area in Lea County, New Mexico, U.S., February 10, 2019. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File PhotoRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRegisterMELBOURNE, June 6 (Reuters) – Oil prices rose more than $2 in early trade on Monday after Saudi Arabia raised prices sharply for its crude sales in July, an indicator of how tight supply is even after OPEC+ agreed to accelerate its output increases over the next two months.Brent crude futures were up $1.80, or 1.5%, at $121.52 a barrel at 2319 GMT after touching an intraday high of $121.95, extending a 1.8% gain from Friday.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up $1.63, or 1.4%, at $120.50 a barrel after hitting a three-month high of $120.99. The contract gained 1.7% on Friday.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRegisterSaudi Arabia raised the official selling price (OSP) for its flagship Arab light crude to Asia to a $6.50 premium versus the average of the Oman and Dubai benchmarks, up from a premium of $4.40 in June, state oil produce Aramco (2222.SE) said on Sunday.The move came despite a decision last week by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together called OPEC+, to increase output in July and August by 648,000 barrels per day, or 50% more than previously planned.”Mere days after opening the spigots a bit wider, Saudi Arabia wasted little time hiking its official selling price for Asia, its primary market…seeing knock-on effects at the futures open across the oil market spectrum,” SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes said in a note.Saudi Arabia also increased the Arab Light OSP to northwest Europe to $4.30 above ICE Brent for July, up from a premium of $2.10 in June. However, it held the premium steady for barrels going to the United States at $5.65 above the Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI).The OPEC+ move to bring forward output hikes is widely seen as unlikely to meet demand as several member countries, including Russia, are unable to boost output, while demand is soaring in the United States amid peak driving season and China is easing COVID lockdowns.”While that increase is sorely needed, it falls short of demand growth expectations, especially with the EU’s partial ban on Russian oil imports also factored in,” Commonwealth Bank analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRegisterReporting by Sonali Paul in Melbourne; Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. .

Middle East Crude Benchmarks slip; Al-Shaheen premium hikes

Middle East Crude Benchmarks slip; Al-Shaheen premium hikes

BEIJING, March 11 (Reuters) – Middle East crude benchmarks Oman, Dubai and Murban shaded weaker on Friday as major oil producers strive to bring more supply to the market to offset the embargos on Russian cargos, while policymakers around the globe mull tapering inflation.Qatar Energy has sold four May-loading crude cargoes via tenders at record premiums after buyers avoided Russian oil amid fears of Western sanctions following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Spot premiums for al-Shaheen crude nearly tripled from the previous month after the producer sold two al-Shaheen crude cargoes to Unipec and PetroChina at about $12 a barrel above Dubai quotes, they said. The cargoes will load on May 2-3 and 29-30.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRegisterExports of Malaysia’s flagship Kimanis crude oil are set to fall to six cargoes in May, down two from April, due to maintenance at oilfields offshore Sabah, a preliminary loading schedule showed on Friday. read more Sinopec’s (600028.SS) 250,000 barrels-per-day Yangzi refinery will shut down its whole plant for a 61-day planned maintenance, starting from March 15, according to a company statement. OSPKuwait raised the official selling prices (OSPs) for two crude grades it sells to Asia in April from the previous month, a price document reviewed by Reuters showed on Friday. read more The producer has set April Kuwait Export Crude (KEC) price at $4.80 a barrel above the average of Oman/Dubai quotes, up $2.25 from the previous month.It also raised the April Kuwait Super Light Crude (KSLC) OSP to $5.95 a barrel above Oman/Dubai quotes, up $2.60.The price hike for KEC was 10 cents more than that for Saudi’s Arab Medium crude in the same month.WINDOWCash Dubai’s premium to swaps fell 61 cents to $11.48 a barrel.PRICES ($/BBL)India’s ONGC Videsh failed to get bids in its tender to sell 700,000 barrels of Russian Sokol crude in a growing backlash against Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine, sources familiar with the matter said. read more This was the first tender by ONGC Videsh, since the war in Ukraine began on Feb. 24.NEWSNorwegian state oil company Equinor (EQNR.OL) has stopped trading Russian oil as it winds down operations there in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. read more Canada is studying ways to increase pipeline utilization to boost crude exports as Europe seeks to reduce its dependence on Russian oil. read more European Union leaders are set to agree on Thursday to cut their reliance on Russian fossil fuels, although they are divided over whether to cap gas prices and to sanction oil imports as Moscow wages war in Ukraine. read more The European Central Bank will stop pumping money into financial markets this summer, it said on Thursday, paving the way for an increase in interest rates as soaring inflation outweighs concerns about the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. read more For crude prices, oil product cracks and refining margins, please click on the RICs below.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRegisterReporting by Muyu Xu and Florence Tan; Editing by Krishna Chandra EluriOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. .