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آوریل 13, 2022

Explained: Ruins of Mariupol port could become Russia’s first big prize in Ukraine

The Sea of Azov port of Mariupol, reduced to a wasteland by seven weeks of siege and bombardment that Ukraine says killed tens of thousands of civilians, could become the first big city captured by Russia since its invasion.
Russia said on Wednesday more than 1,000 Ukrainian marines, among the last defenders holed up in the Azovstal industrial district, had surrendered, though Ukraine did not confirm that.
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Here is why the city’s capture would be important.
STRATEGIC LOCATION
Mariupol, home to more than 400,000 people before the war, is the biggest Ukrainian city on the Sea of Azov and the main port serving the industries and agriculture of eastern Ukraine. It is also the site of some of Ukraine’s biggest metals plants.
On the eve of the war, it was the biggest city still held by Ukrainian authorities in the two eastern provinces known as the Donbas, which Moscow has demanded Ukraine cede to pro-Russian separatists.

Its capture would give Russia full control of the Sea of Azov coast, and a secure overland bridge linking mainland Russia and pro-Russian separatist territory in the east with the Crimea peninsula that Moscow seized and annexed in 2014.
It would unite Russian forces on two of the main axes of the invasion, and free them up to join an expected new offensive against the main Ukrainian force in the east.
Prominent among the Ukrainian forces that have defended Mariupol is the Azov Regiment, a militia with far right origins incorporated into Ukraine’s national guard. Russia has portrayed destroying that group as one of its main war aims.
HUMANITARIAN IMPACT
The siege of Mariupol has been the worst humanitarian catastrophe of the conflict, described by Kyiv as a war crime. Ukrainian officials say at least 20,000 civilians were killed there by Russian forces employing tactics of mass destruction used in earlier campaigns in Syria and Chechnya.
International organisations such as the Red Cross and the United Nations say they believe thousands died but the extent of suffering cannot be assessed yet because the city has been cut off.
Ukrainian officials have said around a third of the population escaped before the siege, a similar number got out during it, while around 160,000 were trapped inside. They sheltered for weeks in cellars with no power or heat, or access to outside shipments of food, water or medicine.

Daily attempts to send convoys to bring in aid and evacuate civilians failed throughout the siege, with Ukraine blaming Russia for looting shipments and refusing to let buses pass through the blockade. Moscow said Ukraine was to blame for failing to observe ceasefires.
Bodies have been buried in mass graves or makeshift graves in gardens. Ukraine says Russia has brought in mobile crematorium trucks to burn bodies and destroy evidence of killings.
Among the major incidents that drew international outcry was the bombing of a maternity hospital on March 9, when wounded pregnant women were photographed being carried out of rubble. A week later, the city’s main drama theatre was destroyed. Ukraine says hundreds of people were sheltering in its basement, and it has not been able to determine how many were killed. The word “children” had been spelled out on the street in front of the building, visible from space.
Russia denies targeting civilians in Mariupol and has said, without presenting evidence, that incidents including the theatre bombing and maternity hospital attack were staged. Kyiv and its Western allies dismiss this as a smear to deflect blame.
Ukraine says Russia forcibly deported thousands of Mariupol residents to Russia, including some unaccompanied children it views as having been kidnapped. Moscow denies this and says it has taken in refugees.
WHAT NEXT?
Western countries believe Russia’s initial war aim was to quickly topple the government in Kyiv, but Moscow has had to abandon that goal after armoured columns bearing down on the capital were repelled. Russia withdrew from northern Ukraine at the start of April and has said its focus is now on the areas claimed by the separatists in the east.

In recent days, a new Russian column has been moving into eastern Ukraine near the town of Izyum to the north of the Donbas. The fall of Mariupol could free up Russian troops in the south of the Donbas to mount an assault on Ukrainian forces from two directions.
Claiming its first big prize in eastern Ukraine could also give Russia a stronger position to negotiate at any peace talks.

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آوریل 11, 2022

Explained: The slide of democracy in Hungary, and what the EU is doing about it

Viktor Orban, Hungary’s pro-Putin nationalist leader, won his fourth consecutive term, in the recently-held elections, which independent observers deemed free but not fair. Since then, the European Commission has launched a powerful mechanism that could potentially cut Hungary’s funding for breaching the rule of law.
The move comes in the backdrop of charges of corruption, and declining democracy in the landlocked central European country. Orban, a staunch far-right popular leader who has been at the helm since 2010, apart from his previous stints as the Prime Minister, came under intense scrutiny following his post-election speech. Orban not only called out the “bureaucrats” at Brussels, the administrative centre of the European Union, but also termed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as his “opponent”, laying bare his closeness to Russia.
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Why is Orban a controversial leader, and what is the EU doing about it? We explain.
A history of ‘illiberal’ governance
In a speech in 2018, Orban declared that ‘Christian democracy’ in Hungary “is by definition, not liberal”. “…it is, if you like, illiberal,” Orban said, adding that it differed from liberal democracy in three issues: “Liberal democracy is in favour of multiculturalism, while Christian democracy gives priority to Christian culture. Liberal democracy is pro-immigration, while Christian democracy is anti-immigration. And liberal democracy sides with adaptable family models, while Christian democracy rests on the foundations of the Christian family model.”
Orban’s anti-immigration stance, especially against Muslims from Middle-Eastern countries seeking asylum, has long troubled the European Union. In 2015, Reuters quoted him as saying, “We do not want to see a significant minority among ourselves that has different cultural characteristics and background. We would like to keep Hungary as Hungary”. In 2021, he went against European Law, criminalising lawyers and activists who help asylum seekers.
The US Freedom House has termed Hungary as “partly free”, the only EU member state to be ranked as such.
File photo of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, left, with Jaroslaw Kaczynski, center, the leader of Poland’s ruling party, Law and Justice, and Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, during the inauguration of a memorial for the Smolensk plane crash, in Budapest. (AP)
In a February 2022 report, the Human Rights Watch flagged renewed pressure over the LGBTQ+ community in Hungary, following an overturning of a ruling that held comparing LGBTQ+ members to paedophiles in the media as unfounded and offensive.
This followed a series of laws that sought to curb the freedom of the queer community. In 2020, the Hungarian Parliament passed a law making it impossible for trans and intersex people to legally identify as their preferred gender. It has also amended the definition of ‘family’ in its Constitution, effectively banning same-sex couples from adopting children. Further, a Hungarian law forbids exposing children to content around homosexuality.
Orban’s nationalist party, Fidesz, has also been called out for its hegemony over the media. The 2021 World Press Freedom Index ranks Hungary at 92, down from its 23rd position in 2010 when Orban came to power.

In a 2021 speech, Orban claimed that the government had increased its ownership to 55 per cent of local media. In fact, according to Atlatszo, a media watchdog and a member of the Global Investigative Journalism Network, in 2018, over 500 media outlets were owned by persons linked to the government and served as mouthpieces of Fidesz. Of these, only 31 outlets were pro-government in 2015.
Over the years, concerns have also been raised over the independence of the judiciary as well as corruption in the Orban government. The European Commission, in 2021, sent a letter to Budapest describing irregularities in its withdrawals from the EU Budget and questioning the excessive powers given to the President of the National Office for the Judiciary, Politico has reported.
Adding to the infringement cases raised against Hungary, the Commission in April 2022 pointed out the lack of transparency in its public procurement.
How has Hungary responded to the war in Ukraine?
Budapest’s stance on the Russian invasion of Ukraine is driving another wedge between the EU and Hungary, which is also a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). Orban, during his election campaign, maintained that Hungary should remain neutral and not cut off its economic ties with Russia.

“This isn’t our war, we have to stay out of it,” Orban said, adding that supplying weapons to Ukraine could make it a target for Russia. “We condemn the Russian attack, but we cannot help the Ukrainians without simultaneously destroying ourselves,” he said on April 1, according to a statement provided by the Prime Minister’s Office.
The nationalist leader after coming to power has also said that Budapest would be willing to pay for Russian gas in Roubles – contradicting the EU’s call for a united front against Moscow’s threat to cut off gas supplies if not paid in its currency. While Orban has supported sanctions against Moscow, he has reportedly refused to back any sanctions on energy as Hungary depends heavily on Russian imports.
According to data provided by The Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), in 2020, Russia was the largest importer of crude petroleum and petroleum gas in Hungary. It accounted for 57.2 per cent of Hungary’s imported crude petroleum ($1.05 billion) and 37.3 per cent of imported petroleum gas ($536 million). Overall, Hungary’s trade with Russia included $2.15 billion of imports.
Ukraine, however, has criticised Budapest’s stance saying that paying for Russian gas would “create additional sources of funding for Russia’s military machine.” The Ukrainian Foreign Minister called upon Orban to stop undermining the unity of the EU, Reuters reported. Hungary, however, has called Kyiv’s statements “insulting” to its people.
How is the EU looking to penalise Hungary?
The European Commission has already withheld Covid recovery funds earmarked for Hungary citing corruption, and for Poland, expressing concerns over the independence of the judiciary. Proceedings under ‘Article 7’ of the Treaty on EU were initiated against the two countries in 2018, which can revoke the voting rights of a member state for not complying with EU laws. However, as the unanimity of all member states is needed to suspend these rights, Poland and Hungary’s ties can potentially lead to them using their veto powers in favour of each other.
On April 5, the Commission’s President Ursula von der Leyen told the European Parliament, that the new Rule of Law Conditionality Mechanism has been launched against Hungary. The mechanism came into force in January 2021, and Hungary is the first country against which procedures have been initiated. Budapest, consequently, stands to lose its funding from the EU after the Council makes a decision over its breaches of the rule of law.
The conditionality mechanism, however, has not yet been deployed against Poland. With Warsaw playing a pivotal role in the Russia-Ukraine war, and its criticism of Hungary’s neutral stance, the Commission’s move could further separate the two countries. von der Leyen also indicated that they were “close” to releasing the pandemic-recovery funds to Poland, as soon as it fulfils the criteria laid out by the EU Court of Justice for ensuring an independent judiciary.

Hungarian ministers have criticised the Commission’s decision, with Orban’s chief of staff saying that the EU was punishing Hungarian voters for exercising their franchise.
If blocked from EU cash, the Hungarian economy will take a severe hit. A Bloomberg report states that EU funds made up more than 10 per cent of Hungary’s budget revenue in 2020. Now, it stands to lose a part or all of the nearly 36 billion Euros (based on current prices) that the EU has allocated for Hungary for the period 2021-27 apart from the already withheld Covid-recovery fund of 7.2 billion Euros.

مارس 23, 2022

Explained: Why Russia and Japan never officially declared peace after WWII

On September 2, 1945, the allied forces accepted Japan’s formal surrender, marking the end of the most destructive global conflict of all time — World War II. But nearly eight decades later, Japan and Russia technically remain at war.
The two countries are yet to formally sign a peace treaty to end World War II hostilities. At the heart of the conflict is a group of tiny islands located just off Japan’s northernmost island of Hokkaido.
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Now peace talks between the two countries have hit yet another stumbling block — Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. After Japan joined the West in imposing hefty sanctions on Moscow, the Russian foreign ministry announced that it was withdrawing from treaty discussions, accusing Japan of “consciously choosing an anti-Russian course”.
Moscow further announced that it was halting all joint-economic programs between the two countries.

Why has Moscow halted peace talks?
After Russia invaded Ukraine, Japan announced that it was revoking ‘most-favoured nation’ (MFN) trade status as part of its economic sanctions against the country. MFN status is a key principle of the World Trade Organisation (WTO). It ensures non-discriminatory trade between all partner countries of the WTO.
Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s decision came soon after similar announcements were made by the US, the EU, and the United Kingdom. But since Tokyo and Moscow aren’t major trading partners, the move is unlikely to have too much of an adverse impact on Russia, according to a report by Japan Times.

Kishida further announced that Japan was expanding the scope of asset freezes against Russia and banning the imports of certain products, Reuters reported. Apart from a wide range of luxury products, Japan has banned the export of about 300 semiconductors, computers and communications devices to Russia and Belarus, according to Japan Times.
Soon after Japan’s announcement, Russia asserted that it would not be continuing talks with Japan. “The Russian side, in the current conditions, does not intend to continue talks with Japan on the peace treaty,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement. It said this was “due to the impossibility of discussing the core document on bilateral relations with a country that has taken an openly hostile position and is striving to cause harm to the interests of our country”.
Russia called off several joint-economic programs and ended a visa-free regime that allowed Japanese people to visit the disputed Kuril islands that were claimed by the Soviet Union towards the fag end of World War II, AFP reported.
Why haven’t Japan and Russia declared peace yet?
Japan and Russia have had a complicated relationship for over a century. But one of the lowest points in Russia-Japan relations played out during the final days of the Second World War, right before Japan’s Emperor Hirohito announced his country’s surrender.

The Soviet Union declared war on Japan and seized a group of islands located near the coast of Hokkaido. All 17,000 Japanese residents were expelled at the time. The islands — known as the southern Kurils in Russia and the Northern Territories in Japan — are at the centre of an ongoing standoff between the two countries.
Since then, while Russia insists that the islands fall under its jurisdiction, Japan maintains that they are an inherent part of its territory and are presently under illegal occupation. The territorial dispute has caused deep rifts between the countries and has kept them from finalising a peace agreement.

After WWII, the Soviet Union refused to sign the formal Treaty of Peace with Japan. Instead, in 1956, the two countries signed a joint declaration “that would technically “end the state of war”. The declaration included an agreement to sign a peace treaty in the future. But this is yet to be achieved.
Why do these islands matter?
Apart from being home to rich fishing grounds, the islands are significant from a strategic perspective. It is here that a large chunk of Russia’s pacific fleet is docked. In fact, over the last few years, Russia has been increasing its military presence on the islands.
In 2016, Russian anti-ship and missile defence systems were stationed here, according to a report by ABC. It has also deployed fighter jets to the islands, much to the ire of Japan’s Foreign Affairs ministry.

Have Japan and Russia tried to negotiate?
Yes, several times. Between 2012 and 2020, leaders of the two countries have held 25 meetings, according to a report by Bloomberg.
Things were starting to look up for Japan in 2018 when Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japan’s former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe agreed that their negotiations should be based on the joint declaration of 1956, which called for the transfer of two of the four islands to Japan. But Russia said Tokyo would first have to acknowledge its sovereignty over the islands.
Then in 2020, Russia amended its constitution, making it illegal to hand over any of its territories.