Analysis: Positive real yields may spell more trouble for U.S. stocks

Analysis: Positive real yields may spell more trouble for U.S. stocks

A street sign for Wall Street is seen in the financial district in New York, U.S., November 8, 2021. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo/File PhotoRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRegisterNEW YORK, April 20 (Reuters) – A hawkish turn by the Federal Reserve is eroding a key support for U.S. stocks, as real yields climb into positive territory for the first time in two years.Yields on the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) – also known as real yields because they subtract projected inflation from the nominal yield on Treasury securities – had been in negative territory since March 2020, when the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to near zero. That changed on Tuesday, when real yields ticked above zero. Negative real yields have meant that an investor would have lost money on an annualized basis when buying a 10-year Treasury note, adjusted for inflation. That dynamic has helped divert money from U.S. government bonds and into a broad spectrum of comparatively riskier assets, including stocks, helping the S&P 500 (.SPX) more than double from its post-pandemic low.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRegisterAnticipation of tighter monetary policy, however, is pushing yields higher and may dent the luster of stocks in comparison to Treasuries, which are viewed as much less risky since they are backed by the U.S. government.Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsOn Tuesday, stocks shrugged off the rise in yields, with the S&P 500 ending up 1.6% on the day. Still, the S&P 500 is down 6.4% this year, while the yield on the 10-year TIPS has climbed more than 100 basis points.”Real 10-year yields are the risk-free alternative to owning stocks,” said Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel. “As real yield rises, at the margin it makes stocks less attractive.”One key factor influenced by yields is the equity risk premium, which measures how much investors expect to be compensated for owning stocks over government bonds.Rising yields have helped result in the measure standing at its lowest level since 2010, Truist Advisory Services said in a note last week.Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsHEADWIND TO GROWTH SHARESHigher yields in particular dull the allure of companies in technology and other high-growth sectors, with those companies’ cash flows often more weighted in the future and diminished when discounted at higher rates.That may be bad news for the broader market. The heavy presence of tech and other growth stocks in the S&P 500 means the index’s overall expected dividends are weighted in the future at close to their highest level ever, according to BofA Global Research. Five massive, high-growth stocks, for example, now make up 22% of the weight of the S&P 500.At the same time, growth shares in recent years have been highly linked to the movement of real yields.Since 2018, a ratio comparing the performance of the Russell 1000 growth index (.RLG) to its counterpart for value stocks (.RLV) – whose cash flows are more near-term – has had a negative 96% correlation with 10-year real rates, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions from growth stocks, according to Ohsung Kwon, a U.S. equity strategist at BofA Global Research.Rising yields are “a bigger headwind to equities than (they have) been in history,” he said.Top five stocks market cap as percentage of S&P 500Top five stocks market cap as percentage of S&P 500Bannister estimates the S&P 500 could retest its lows of the year, which included a drop in March of 13% from the index’s record high, should the yield on the 10-year TIPS rise to 0.75% and the earnings outlook – a key component of the risk premium – remain unchanged.Lofty valuations also make stocks vulnerable if yields continue rising. Though the tumble in stocks has moderated valuations this year, the S&P 500 still trades at about 19 times forward earnings estimates, compared with a long-term average of 15.5, according to Refinitiv Datastream.“Valuations aren’t great on stocks right now. That means that capital may look at other alternatives to stocks as they become more competitive,” said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management.Still, some investors believe stocks can survive just fine with rising real yields, for now. Real yields were mostly in positive territory over the past decade and ranged as high as 1.17% while the S&P 500 has climbed over 200%.JPMorgan strategists earlier this month estimated that equities could cope with 200 basis points of real yield increases. They advised clients maintain a large equity versus bond overweight.”If bond yield rises continue, they could eventually become a problem for equities,” the bank’s strategists said. “But we believe current real bond yields at around zero are not high enough to materially challenge equities.”Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRegisterReporting by Lewis Krauskopf in New York
Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Matthew Lewis
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. .

Analysis: Where now after 2% yield? Bond investors take stock

Analysis: Where now after 2% yield? Bond investors take stock

The Federal Reserve building is seen in Washington, U.S., January 26, 2022. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts/File PhotoRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRegisterNEW YORK, Feb 10 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury yields have shot higher this year, rising faster than many forecast. Investors are now assessing if anticipation of a more hawkish Fed will continue to push levels up, with the potential to upset riskier assets.Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may increase rates more aggressively than anticipated to counter rising inflation have pushed up yields while flattening the U.S. Treasury yield curve. That matters as bond yields impact global asset prices as well as consumer loans and mortgages. The shape of the U.S. Treasury yield curve can also help predict how the economy will fare.On Thursday, yields on 10-year notes hit 2% after higher-than-anticipated inflation data. Federal funds rate futures showed an increased chance of a half percentage-point tightening at next month’s meeting after the data, while strategists said the data increased the chances of swifter moves to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet. The central bank’s nearly $9 trillion portfolio doubled in size during the pandemic. read more Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRegister“The market is starting to price in a much more aggressive path of rate hikes … clearly there is a sense of urgency again”, said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale.Yields, which move inversely to prices, are up from 1.79% at the beginning of February. The last time they breached 2% was August 2019.”I would say the chances of yields continuing to go higher are pretty high,” said Gargi Chaudhuri, Head of iShares Investment Strategy, Americas, at BlackRock, speaking ahead of the data.FOREIGN COMPETITIONCompetition in other markets for yield may be sapping demand for Treasuries and helping push yields higher, Chaudhuri said.A second rate hike by the Bank of England last week, and expectations of faster policy tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB), added to U.S. bonds’ weakness, with borrowing costs in Europe – as well as Japanese government bond yields – having jumped to multi-year highs in recent days. read more “Investors have these other markets to gravitate towards that they didn’t in the past, and that will require investors that are focusing on U.S. markets to seek a higher term premium and therefore will impact yields higher,” Chaudhuri said.Japan’s benchmark 10-year government bond yield is around its highest level since January 2016 at 0.220% while Germany’s 10-year government bond yield , at 0.255%, is at its highest since January 2019. read more FEDFEDFor Kelsey Berro, fixed income portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, the level of yields in overseas markets such as Japan or Germany have made U.S. rates comparably more attractive, preventing a sustainable sell off, but that is expected to change.”Already you should start to see that some of these foreign investors take a second look at their home countries rather than reaching for yields in the U.S.,” she said.Still, there was strong demand seen for a recent 10-year Treasury auction, although it was unclear how much overseas bidders participated. SPEEDY ASCENTThe rise in US yields has come faster than many anticipated: In December, a Reuters poll forecast that 10-year note yields would rise to around 2% towards the end of 2022 – a level it has reached in the first couple of months. read more Some banks have been updating that view. Goldman Sachs analysts on Wednesday raised their forecast for the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to 2.25% by end-2022, from a previous year-end target of 2%.The pace of gains has caused volatility in other assets. U.S. equities have been rocky this year, with shares of tech companies particularly volatile, as expectations of higher yields threaten to erode the value of their future earnings.Gene Podkaminer, Head of Research for Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, called 2% on the benchmark 10-year a “psychological” level that could make U.S. government bonds more attractive versus other assets, such as volatile stocks.”When you start getting close to 2% … all of a sudden Treasuries are looking more appealing,” Podkaminer said earlier this week.One commonly cited metric still favors stocks, however.The equity risk premium – or the extra return investors receive for holding stocks over risk-free government bonds – favors equities over the next year, Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, said on Wednesday.The S&P 500 has historically beaten the one-year return for the 10-year Treasury note by an average of 11.8% when the premium stood at Wednesday’s level of 260 points, Lerner said.“I don’t think the U.S. 10-year yield hitting 2% would have a big impact on the stock markets per se,” said Manish Kabra, head of U.S. equity strategy at Societe Generale, citing the equity risk premium.However, “we could see some pressure if yields go to 2.5%,” she said.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRegisterReporting by Davide Barbuscia; additional reporting by Saikat Chatterjee in London and Lewis Krauskopf in New York; editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Megan DaviesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. .