BRASILIA, July 22 (Reuters) – Brazilian fixed-income markets are pricing in the highest risk levels in years, raising red flags among investors and government officials who see little relief in sight.While global interest rate hikes and recession risks have put all emerging markets under pressure, Brazil faces special scrutiny after Congress cracked open a constitutional spending cap to allow a burst of election-year expenditures. read more “The problem is the change in the spending cap,” said an Economy Ministry official, who requested anonymity to discuss the situation openly. “It weakens the reading that the fiscal situation will be under control in the coming years.”Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Marcela Ayres and Jose de Castro
Editing by Brad HaynesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. .
Analysis: Private equity’s swoop on listed European firms runs into rising execution risks
- Boards, shareholders start to rail against lowball bids
- Push for higher premiums compound debt funding dilemma
- Buyer vs seller valuation gaps may take a year to close
LONDON, June 28 (Reuters) – European listed companies have not been this cheap for more than a decade, yet for private equity firms looking to put their cash piles to work, costlier financing and stronger resistance from businesses are complicating dealmaking.Sharp falls in the value of the euro and sterling coupled with the deepest trading discounts of European stocks versus global peers seen since March 2009, have fuelled a surge in take-private interest from cash-rich buyout firms.Private equity-led bids for listed companies in Europe hit a record $73 billion in the first six months of this year to date, more than double volumes of $35 billion in the same period last year and representing 37% of overall private equity buyouts in the region, according to Dealogic data.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Joice Alves, Emma-Victoria Farr, Sinead Cruise, additional reporting by Yoruk Bahceli, editing by Pamela Barbaglia and Susan FentonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. .
That contrasts with a sharp slowdown in overall M&A activity around the world. But as take-private target companies and their shareholders are increasingly bristling against cheap punts which they say fail to reflect fair value of their underlying businesses in 2022, prospects for deals in the second half of the year look less promising.Leading the first half bonanza was a 58 billion euro ($61.38 billion) take-private bid by the Benetton family and U.S. buyout fund Blackstone (BX.N) for Italian infrastructure group Atlantia (ATL.MI).Dealmakers, however, say the vast majority of take-private initiatives are not reflected in official data as many private equity attempts to buy listed companies have gone undetected with boardrooms shooting down takeover approaches before any firm bid has even been launched.”In theory it’s the right time to look at take-privates as valuations are dropping. But the execution risk is high, particularly in cases where the largest shareholder holds less than 10%,” said Chris Mogge, a partner at European buyout fund BC Partners.Other recent private equity swoops include a 1.6 billion pound ($1.97 billion) bid by a consortium of Astorg Asset Management and Epiris for Euromoney (ERM.L) which valued the FTSE 250-listed financial publisher at a 34% premium after four previous offers were rebuffed by its board. read more Also capturing the attention of private equity in recent weeks were power generating firm ContourGlobal (GLO.L), British waste-management specialist Biffa (BIFF.L) and bus and rail operator FirstGroup (FGP.L), with the latter rejecting the takeover approach. read more Trevor Green, head of UK equities at Aviva Investors (AV.L), said his team was stepping up engagement with company executives to thwart lowball bids, with unwelcome approaches from private equity made more likely in view of currency volatility.War in Europe, soaring energy prices and stagflation concerns have hit the euro and the British pound hard, with the former falling around 7% and the latter by 10% against the U.S. dollar this year.”We know this kind of currency movement encourages activity, and where there’s scope for a deal, shareholders will be rightly pushing for higher premiums to reflect that,” Green said.SUBDUED SPENDINGGlobally, private equity activity has eased after a record year in 2021, hit by raging inflation, recession fears and the rising cost of capital. Overall volumes fell 19% to $674 billion in the first half of the year, according to Dealogic data.Dealmaking across the board, including private equity deals, dropped 25.5% in the second quarter of this year from a year earlier to $1 trillion, according to Dealogic data. read more Buyout funds have played a major role in sustaining global M&A activity this year, generating transactions worth $405 billion in the second quarter.But as valuation disputes intensify, concerns sparked by rising costs of debt have prevented firms from pulling off deals for their preferred listed targets in recent months.Private equity firms including KKR, EQT and CVC Capital Partners ditched attempts to take control of German-listed laboratory supplier Stratec (SBSG.DE) in May due to price differences, three sources said. Stratec, which has a market value of 1.1 billion euros, has the Leistner family as its top shareholder with a 40.5% stake.EQT, KKR and CVC declined to comment. Stratec did not immediately return a request for comment.The risks of highly leveraged corporate takeovers have increased with financing becoming more expensive, leaving some buyers struggling to make the numbers on deals stack up, sources said.Meanwhile, piles of cash that private equity firms have raised to invest continue to grow, heaping pressure on partners to consider higher-risk deals structured with more expensive debt.”There is a risk premium for debt, which leads to higher deal costs,” said Marcus Brennecke, global co-head of private equity at EQT (EQT.N).The average yield on euro high yield bonds – typically used to finance leverage buyouts – has surged to 6.77% from 2.815% at the start of the year, according to ICE BofA’s index, and the rising cost of capital has slowed debt issuance sharply. (.MERHE00)As a result, private equity firms have increasingly relied on more expensive private lending funds to finance their deals, four sources said.But as share prices continue to slide, the gap between the premium buyers are willing to offer and sellers’ price expectations remains too wide for many and could take up to a year to narrow, two bankers told Reuters.In the UK, where Dealogic data shows a quarter of all European take-private deals have been struck this year, the average premium paid was 40%, in line with last year, according to data from Peel Hunt.”Getting these deals over the line is harder than it looks. The question really is going to be how much leverage (buyers can secure),” one senior European banker with several top private equity clients told Reuters.($1 = 0.8141 pounds)($1 = 0.9450 euros)Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comNigeria offers premium to raise $1.25 billion Eurobond
Nigerian Finance Minister Zainab Ahmed attends the IMF and World Bank’s 2019 Annual Spring Meetings, in Washington, File. REUTERS/James Lawler DugganRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comAdditional reporting by Rachel Savage in London;
Writing by Chijioke Ohuocha;
Editing by Chris Reese, Lisa Shumaker and Aurora EllisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. .
Ping An Insurance profit falls 29% amid premium income pressure
File Photo: A man walks past a branch of Ping An Bank, a subsidiary of Ping An Insurance, in Beijing, China. REUTERS/Thomas PeterRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com
- Ping An annual net profit tanks 29% on year
- Life, property and casualty insurance premiums down
- Agent numbers slashed, bodes ill for future sales
SHANGHAI, March 17 (Reuters) – China’s Ping An (601318.SS), , the country’s largest insurer by market value, reported its biggest annual profit fall since 2008 on Thursday amid pressure on its premium income.Ping An posted a 29% fall in annual net profit to 101.6 billion yuan ($16 billion)in 2021 from 143.1 billion yuan, as premium income from life insurance fell 4.1% year-on-year to 490.3 billion yuan, while property and casualty insurance premium income fell 5.5% to 270 billion yuan.”Complex, severe economic situations across the world and resurgences of COVID-19 increased uncertainty in resident income expectations in 2021,” Ping An said in a filing, and this “tempered consumer spending on long-term protection products”.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Engen Tham, Zhang Yan; Editing by Alexander SmithOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. .
Another factor was a fall in the number of Ping An sales agents fell, which meant that its new business value of life and health insurance sank 23.6% to 37.9 billion yuan.Its army of insurance agents, once the jewel in Ping An’s crown, is set to shrink further, putting more pressure on sales.”In 2022, the number of agents may still fall quite a lot compared to the year before,” Huatai Securities said in a note published this month, adding that this “can only have an impact on the growth of new insurance policies”.PROPERTY EXPOSUREPing An has been shaken by growing concerns about its investments in a highly indebted property sector which faces a liquidity crunch amid a crackdown by Beijing on borrowing.While there are suggestions of an easing — from exempting M&A financing from the tighter restrictions to loosening mortgage lending — many developers are still feeling liquidity pressure, two people with knowledge said.Ping An said it had a total exposure of 54 billion yuan ($8.4 billion) to China Fortune Land Development Co last year as the developer faced mounting default pressure.Some analysts cautioned that the total property exposure of Ping An is much higher and still underestimated by the market, which will poses further credit risks.However, its Ping An Bank Co Ltd reported a 25.6% increase in annual profit for last year, compared to 2020, with the bank’s non-performing loan ratio down to 1.02% at end of December, from 1.05% three months ago.Ping An’s Shanghai-listed shares are down 9.72% in the year to date, compared with a 11.62% drop in the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index and a 8.11% fall in Hang Seng index.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comAnalysis: Where now after 2% yield? Bond investors take stock
The Federal Reserve building is seen in Washington, U.S., January 26, 2022. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts/File PhotoRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRegisterNEW YORK, Feb 10 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury yields have shot higher this year, rising faster than many forecast. Investors are now assessing if anticipation of a more hawkish Fed will continue to push levels up, with the potential to upset riskier assets.Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may increase rates more aggressively than anticipated to counter rising inflation have pushed up yields while flattening the U.S. Treasury yield curve. That matters as bond yields impact global asset prices as well as consumer loans and mortgages. The shape of the U.S. Treasury yield curve can also help predict how the economy will fare.On Thursday, yields on 10-year notes hit 2% after higher-than-anticipated inflation data. Federal funds rate futures showed an increased chance of a half percentage-point tightening at next month’s meeting after the data, while strategists said the data increased the chances of swifter moves to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet. The central bank’s nearly $9 trillion portfolio doubled in size during the pandemic. read more Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRegister“The market is starting to price in a much more aggressive path of rate hikes … clearly there is a sense of urgency again”, said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale.Yields, which move inversely to prices, are up from 1.79% at the beginning of February. The last time they breached 2% was August 2019.”I would say the chances of yields continuing to go higher are pretty high,” said Gargi Chaudhuri, Head of iShares Investment Strategy, Americas, at BlackRock, speaking ahead of the data.FOREIGN COMPETITIONCompetition in other markets for yield may be sapping demand for Treasuries and helping push yields higher, Chaudhuri said.A second rate hike by the Bank of England last week, and expectations of faster policy tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB), added to U.S. bonds’ weakness, with borrowing costs in Europe – as well as Japanese government bond yields – having jumped to multi-year highs in recent days. read more “Investors have these other markets to gravitate towards that they didn’t in the past, and that will require investors that are focusing on U.S. markets to seek a higher term premium and therefore will impact yields higher,” Chaudhuri said.Japan’s benchmark 10-year government bond yield is around its highest level since January 2016 at 0.220% while Germany’s 10-year government bond yield , at 0.255%, is at its highest since January 2019. read more FEDFor Kelsey Berro, fixed income portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, the level of yields in overseas markets such as Japan or Germany have made U.S. rates comparably more attractive, preventing a sustainable sell off, but that is expected to change.”Already you should start to see that some of these foreign investors take a second look at their home countries rather than reaching for yields in the U.S.,” she said.Still, there was strong demand seen for a recent 10-year Treasury auction, although it was unclear how much overseas bidders participated. SPEEDY ASCENTThe rise in US yields has come faster than many anticipated: In December, a Reuters poll forecast that 10-year note yields would rise to around 2% towards the end of 2022 – a level it has reached in the first couple of months. read more Some banks have been updating that view. Goldman Sachs analysts on Wednesday raised their forecast for the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to 2.25% by end-2022, from a previous year-end target of 2%.The pace of gains has caused volatility in other assets. U.S. equities have been rocky this year, with shares of tech companies particularly volatile, as expectations of higher yields threaten to erode the value of their future earnings.Gene Podkaminer, Head of Research for Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, called 2% on the benchmark 10-year a “psychological” level that could make U.S. government bonds more attractive versus other assets, such as volatile stocks.”When you start getting close to 2% … all of a sudden Treasuries are looking more appealing,” Podkaminer said earlier this week.One commonly cited metric still favors stocks, however.The equity risk premium – or the extra return investors receive for holding stocks over risk-free government bonds – favors equities over the next year, Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, said on Wednesday.The S&P 500 has historically beaten the one-year return for the 10-year Treasury note by an average of 11.8% when the premium stood at Wednesday’s level of 260 points, Lerner said.“I don’t think the U.S. 10-year yield hitting 2% would have a big impact on the stock markets per se,” said Manish Kabra, head of U.S. equity strategy at Societe Generale, citing the equity risk premium.However, “we could see some pressure if yields go to 2.5%,” she said.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRegisterReporting by Davide Barbuscia; additional reporting by Saikat Chatterjee in London and Lewis Krauskopf in New York; editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Megan DaviesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. .