How one day in free agency reshaped the Rams, Bills’ Super Bowl pursuits

How one day in free agency reshaped the Rams, Bills’ Super Bowl pursuits

On a Wednesday morning in mid-March, the Rams realized they couldn’t be the same as before.
That day, a group that included general manager Les Snead, head coach Sean McVay, defensive coordinator Raheem Morris and the pro personnel tandem of John McKay and Matt Waugh, clustered together in one of the small offices at the team’s Thousand Oaks, Calif., facilities.
They were just a few weeks removed from winning Super Bowl LVI, and the glow of their 2021 season hadn’t quite left the building. One wall in the team meeting room still featured a glossy, enlarged photo of defensive tackle Aaron Donald’s hit on 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo that helped seal the NFC Championship Game, pinned up in accordance with a weekly tradition to commemorate the season’s big plays.
The cries of “run it back!” from the men in that office, echoed by dozens of players and coaches during their boozy, confetti-freckled championship parade, were still ringing in their ears that Wednesday when Von Miller told them he wasn’t coming back.
A future Hall of Fame pass rusher whose historic postseason helped the Rams win their first title in Los Angeles, Miller had wanted to test free agency that spring for the first time in his 11-year career. But he told the team shortly after the parade that he’d be back, so long as the Rams got the money right on a previously-discussed contract extension.
Miller’s return would mean keeping the Super Bowl band together, “running it back” with the same group. Executives already knew McVay would be around for the attempt at a repeat despite rumors he was considering stepping away for a massive broadcast deal. They laid out frameworks for extensions for quarterback Matthew Stafford and top receiver Cooper Kupp, as well as a restructure and raise for Donald.
But then, the call came in. The Buffalo Bills, who had come excruciatingly close to playing the Rams in the Super Bowl that season, had offered Miller something L.A. would not. Miller was heading to another contender.
Snead quietly pushed back his chair and left the room. He needed to take a walk.
When he returned, everything would change.

In November 2021, receiver Robert Woods tore his ACL in practice the day after the Rams signed Odell Beckham Jr., a prolific receiver still reeling from his controversial exit from Cleveland. Instead of gradually working Beckham Jr. into the offense, he had to contribute immediately. But the Rams couldn’t simply put him in Woods’ own unique role — running jet sweeps, blocking and executing the catch-and-run shorter passes and midfield crossers off of play-action that were once a signature of the McVay offense.
The Rams weren’t playing that way so much anymore anyway. With Stafford, McVay moved away from play-action and toward more dropback passing concepts, shotgun and empty formations with every eligible pass-catcher aligned along the line of scrimmage pre-snap.
It was a slow, at times frustrating process to overhaul their offense minus Woods amid the unforgiving sprint of a season that started to feel like quicksand. The Rams had started 7-1 but went winless in November. It was only when the coaching staff decided to swap out their traditional run game with a power-run plan, utilizing extra offensive linemen as “tight ends” in jumbo-blocking formations for steady downhill back Sony Michel, that the team began to re-discover its heartbeat.
“Heck, OBJ didn’t even know the playbook,” Snead told The Athletic. “As Big Whit (left tackle Andrew Whitworth) would say, ‘When in doubt, when taking on water, let’s just run at ’em. Let’s play bully ball.’”
The Rams also learned something important about themselves and their agility.
“I remember the energy,” Snead said. “It can be frustrating — you can have this theory, this vision, that no matter the adversity we’re dealt, somehow we’ve got to figure out how to be stronger out of it. But there are times when you’re in the valley, when that (theory) can be a sign on the wall … can you actually pull it off?”
Stability via the run game helped the Rams put together a five-game winning streak in December and January. As they steadied, they regained the ability to test out new possibilities with Beckham in their passing game
“I mean, what Odell did last year was unbelievable,” said Kupp, who went on to win the ultra-rare receiving triple crown in 2021. “I just can’t imagine learning the offense the way he did in the middle of having to play the game. It was an incredible thing. … You get to the place where it’s like, ‘Hey, we need to figure out what that’s gonna look like,’ he provided something that was pretty special.”


Von Miller’s contributions to the Rams’ Super Bowl run illustrated the Bills’ biggest offseason need. (Joshua Bessex / Getty Images)
The Rams had traded for Miller days before signing Beckham, believing the pass rusher to be the final piece needed for a roster that seemed to have a deep postseason run in its destiny — and elite quarterbacks in its path.
Miller arrived in Los Angeles with a minor ankle injury but got healthy through the Rams’ bleak November. In December and January, he started to come alive as the Rams regained their own footing. He began sitting beside Donald on the team plane after road games and plotting new rush patterns with defensive line coach Eric Henderson.
Meanwhile, the Bills were gathering momentum of their own. They won their last four regular-season games and throttled the rival Patriots in the AFC Wild Card round, scoring a touchdown on each of their first seven drives.
But in the divisional round against the Chiefs, Buffalo found only heartbreak. All too comfortably, Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes led a now-infamous 13-second game-winning drive in overtime as the Bills’ pass-rush failed to rattle him. Their season over, Buffalo GM Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott watched as the Rams’ own pass-rush found a higher gear as they advanced. Miller topped the NFL in pressure rate through the playoffs, recording 12 tackles (six for loss) and four sacks, two of which came in the Super Bowl win.
If the Bills weren’t already painfully aware of their missing piece, Miller and the Rams made it all too clear.
“We obviously know how close we were the last two years. AFC Championship, and then this year 13 seconds away from going back to the AFC Championship,” Beane said this spring. “That’s not our goal. Originally, our goal was to win the division, get to the playoffs and get a chance. We’ve done that. Now we gotta find how we get to that next step. …
“The quarterback is the premium position. We have that. The next thing is to get someone who can get the other quarterback down.”

Multiple league sources believe the Bills were initially targeting veteran pass-rusher Chandler Jones as free agency began in March — not necessarily out of a preference (the Bills had inquired about trading for Miller ahead of the 2021 season), but because everybody, including the Rams, believed Miller was returning to Los Angeles. But as the “legal tampering” period opened and the March 16 official start to free agency loomed, Jones emerged as a match for the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Bills became aware of a key contractual detail missing from the Rams’ still-unsigned offer to Miller: A third year of guaranteed money. The Rams wouldn’t — and couldn’t — do that. They had never offered a third guaranteed year to a player, and they couldn’t set a precedent for Miller instead of homegrown stars Donald and/or Kupp, both of whom had deals looming later that spring.
Miller called McVay and told him he was accepting the Bills’ six-year, $120 million offer with a little over $51 million guaranteed over three years. Some in the room sat for a moment, stunned by Miller’s change of heart. Snead wasn’t the only one who needed to take a walk.
The Rams were forced to pivot, but they weren’t going to target another pass rusher if they couldn’t get one they felt was worth a high-capital investment. A key element of their team-building model is only investing on that level at certain positions — quarterback, pass rusher, cornerback and receiver — and only in players they believe have “elite” traits as quantified by their in-house analysis.
“What we can’t do is mope that we don’t have Von,” said Snead, adding, “We’re not replacing Von.”
The group immediately turned on some film of free-agent cornerbacks but weren’t inspired. Then, McVay flipped through a few texts on his phone. On and off that spring, he, Stafford and Kupp had talked about free-agent receiver Allen Robinson, marveling at what they felt others couldn’t see: that Robinson, for all of his reputation as a high-point, contested catch receiver, was incredibly versatile. That he could separate in between the hashes, not just up in the air. That, along with all of that, Stafford always loved having a big-bodied receiver with a huge catch radius to reel in what McVay admiringly calls, “f— it throws”.
“You can line (Robinson) up anywhere,” said Kupp. “He can do all of the other stuff, just like Odell was doing. Play some stuff underneath, be able to be singled up on the back side and win one-on-ones — I mean, A-Rob is a guy who can do all of it.”
McVay was nervous about his receiving corps. Beckham, playing on a one-year deal, tore his ACL in the Super Bowl en route to what may have been an MVP performance. The Rams wanted (and still want) to bring Beckham back but knew he couldn’t contribute until November or December. No. 3 receiver Van Jefferson had just undergone the first of two knee procedures. Woods was still recovering from his torn ACL and so was considered by staff as an “unknown” for 2022.
The energy in the room started buzzing as the group turned on film cut-ups of Robinson. Still, the Rams were cautious. They knew they couldn’t offer him more than the framework they had set aside for Kupp. They also figured he had a couple of suitors already. Would he consider them?
Late that Wednesday night, the Rams called Robinson. He was deep in talks with the Eagles, two sources told The Athletic, but the Rams asked him to postpone his final decision long enough to get on a video call with McVay and Stafford. The coach and quarterback showed Robinson clips of Beckham that they had hustled to put together for the occasion showing how the passing offense eventually evolved around him and Kupp.
“Didn’t know if he was going to be here or not,” Stafford said. “But tried to put some stuff out there to show a role that could come to fruition.”
A 2014 second-round pick who spent the first eight years of his career split between the Jaguars and Bears — two teams with woefully inadequate quarterback play — Robinson had taken a cautious and researched approach to free agency. Along with his agent, Brandon Parker, he even attended the 2022 scouting combine in late February to talk to interested teams in person.
When the Rams called, Robinson didn’t need to be sold — a Detroit native, he had long admired Stafford from afar. But he let McVay and Stafford say their piece. After watching the clips with them, Robinson decided that throwing himself into something he hadn’t expected gave him a feeling he’d been waiting for, for almost a decade.
“I think for (some) guys, that ‘unknown’ causes sleepless nights,” he said. “At the end of the day, you just believe in yourself, you bet on yourself, you trust in yourself and you believe that what happens next is best. You never know what’s on the other side.”
Only a couple of hours after their initial call, Robinson told the Rams he was in. The sides agreed to a three-year, $46 million deal with $30 million guaranteed mere hours after Miller’s fateful call to McVay. The sudden change in strategy — not from pass rusher to pass rusher, but from elite defensive player to elite offensive player, was striking.
“We love Von, but it didn’t work out,” said McVay. “And so now, you say, ‘How do we pivot in the right direction?’ And it doesn’t exclusively have to be from that position. I think that’s where the flexible approach from our personnel staff, our coaches (is) to say, ‘OK, what does that look like?’”
Shortly after Robinson signed, Woods was traded to Tennessee. The Rams, by then emotionally removed from the idea of “running it back”, leaned further into their new direction. They signed another future Hall of Famer, inside linebacker Bobby Wagner, in late March, rolling some of their savings from not signing Miller into Wagner’s multiyear deal.
“Then, it was like, ‘OK, this is going to be a different team,’” COO Kevin Demoff told The Athletic.
“I think if you’re a realist about repeating, defending, the fact that nobody has done this in 17 years — if there was a way to do it, people would have figured it out,” he added. “So clearly, the way to do it is to not pay attention to repeating, and to pay attention to building the best team that you can.”
McVay says it’s an ethos of agility. Snead likes to call it “being anti-fragile.”
It’s the same phrase Snead repeated back in November, when the Rams almost broke, but instead — behind Beckham and an unexpected pivot in their offense during an adverse time — found something new.


Signing free agent Allen Robinson was consistent with the Rams’ team-building model of investing in stars at premium positions. (Jevone Moore / Getty Images)

The lore inside the Rams locker room is that Robinson and Wagner respectfully declined open invitations to attend the team’s ring ceremony in July.
The two attended every single day of voluntary spring workouts. Wagner sat with different players in stretching lines before the start of practices. Robinson dove into the playbook with restless, obsessive energy. Personnel staff marveled at the intensity with which he studied.
But they told teammates they wanted to build something new together. The past was not theirs to live in.
“People want to come here and win and do something special,” said Snead. “I think that’s a little bit of an unsung ingredient. Now, time will tell, but I do think it’s neat having players like that.”
The Bills know that, too. It’s part of why they went after Miller. In a way, they and the Rams are linked not just by Miller, or by the NFL’s schedule, but also by a similar ethos: They are in Super Bowl contention, and willing to sprint without abandon toward whoever they believe gets them that much closer to eternity.
“As soon as you take that step (in one direction), I think it’s your duty to ask, ‘Is this still the right way to go?’” said Kupp. “You still keep asking yourself that, (even as) you keep going as fast as you can, as hard as you can down that way.”
The cries of “run it back” that reverberated through the hallways and spilled onto the fields in Thousand Oaks are gone, replaced by a new feeling.
It stems from the moves the Rams made to win a championship in 2021, from the attitude by which they built their team, from a mantra Whitworth imparted throughout a bleak November before the Rams went on their run, from an offseason in which nothing stayed the same because it couldn’t, perhaps because it shouldn’t:
“Grow or die.”
(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; Photos: Grant Halverson, Aaron Ontiveroz, Harry How, Scott Tatsch / Getty Images)
!function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s)
{if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function(){n.callMethod?
n.callMethod.apply(n,arguments):n.queue.push(arguments)};
if(!f._fbq)f._fbq=n;n.push=n;n.loaded=!0;n.version=’2.0′;
n.queue=[];t=b.createElement(e);t.async=!0;
t.src=v;s=b.getElementsByTagName(e)[0];
s.parentNode.insertBefore(t,s)}(window, document,’script’,
‘https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/fbevents.js’);
fbq(‘dataProcessingOptions’, []);
fbq(‘init’, ‘207679059578897’);
fbq(‘track’, ‘PageView’); .

The Draft Files: 22 thoughts on the Bills entering the NFL Draft

The Draft Files: 22 thoughts on the Bills entering the NFL Draft

In just two days, the Bills will use what could be their most substantial team-building resource before the 2022 season. The 25th selection in the NFL Draft can give them one last boost for their critical upcoming campaign.
Many consider this one of the most unpredictable first rounds in recent memory. So how does that affect the Bills, and what might they be targeting starting Thursday? We’ve got a lot to get to, so let’s dive right in with a draft week tradition.
Here are 22 thoughts about the Bills’ potential draft strategy, combining what the Bills have said, historical clues, positional values, recent trends, roster structuring and an absurd amount of time by yours truly considering every possible scenario.
1. Why the Bills make this unpredictable draft even trickier
Projections for the Bills’ pick at No. 25 are all over the board, and there’s a good explanation for it. For one, the Bills have a great roster, and one that many believe can contend for a Super Bowl. For many, that narrows the focus to an immediate need like cornerback because of Tre’Davious White’s injury and the Dane Jackson factors. However, as we wrote about at length last week, the Bills have long treated the second boundary cornerback position as a non-premium position. That historical viewpoint lessens the case for it to be the top pick, and we’ll get into it more later. But cornerback isn’t the only position with that distinction, and it’s why figuring out what they’ll do has been so difficult.
Since Bills general manager Brandon Beane has been in charge, the Bills have used their first-round selection on what the organization believes to be a premium position. A quarterback and a middle linebacker in 2018, a disruptive three-technique defensive tackle in 2019, trading the pick in 2020 for a top-flight receiver and then an edge rusher with plenty of potential in 2021. They used five first-round choices on five premium positions. However, here’s where it gets complicated. The Bills believe they are in a pretty good spot in almost all of those premium positions for 2022 and beyond.
The Bills’ most commonly projected positions have one of two aspects to them. First, some are non-premium, like a second cornerback, running back or guard. Or it’s overkill at a position loaded with talent, like receiver, linebacker or safety. Every other premium spot is taken care of with a multiyear deal. It’s a pretty great position to be in organizationally. But it also means we have to dig deeper, so let’s sift through some past quotes to try to figure out what Bills are thinking.
2. What lessons can we learn from previous draft years?
Much like this year, a second cornerback was viewed as a humongous Bills need externally in 2021. But they didn’t take one in the first round. This was a clue.
“We’ll think long term more than short term,” Beane said in April 2021. “I think there’s some other guys we have on the board, where we’re going: ‘This guy’s one heck of a player, but he’s not going to start Day 1, but we will count on him and maybe in a year he’s going to be the starter.’ We’ll have a player that’s on the last year of their deal, and he’ll kind of back up that player, learn from him, compete with him, but we don’t necessarily expect him to start.”
That exact scenario played out with the Bills’ last two first-round picks. In 2019, the Bills drafted defensive tackle Ed Oliver with then-presumed starter Jordan Phillips on a one-year contract. The team rotated Phillips and Oliver, sometimes playing them together, but each ended the year with only 53 percent of snaps. In 2021, the team drafted defensive end Greg Rousseau as incumbent starters Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison were both in the final year of their contract. Rousseau received only 49 percent of all defensive snaps in his rookie season, sandwiched between Hughes (51) and Addison (44).
The Bills typically don’t overplay their rookies or hand them a starting job immediately, a philosophy we outlined last week. Coach Sean McDermott actively manages first-year players’ time to limit the impact of the rookie wall. Five seasons into the Beane-McDermott era, it’s logical to believe they’d continue to operate the same way. The odds that the player they draft with their top pick becomes a Day 1 starter by choice in 2022 are not good from a historical perspective.
That first-year development is why Beane’s quote about having the long-term in mind matters as much as it does. And it’s why it’s essential to look at the positions where the Bills have only a one-year solution at the moment.
3. OK, so what positions fit those criteria for 2022?
There is a handful. We’ll go down the list in the order of standard position listings.

  • Running back
  • Slot receiver
  • Tight end
  • Guard
    • Starter Rodger Saffold signed a contract that voids after the 2022 season.
  • Linebacker
  • Second cornerback
  • Strong safety
    • Jordan Poyer is in the final year of his contract, and it’s clear that he wants a raise and an extension.

The Bills are more likely to extend Knox than to draft his replacement, so we’ll rule that one out. You can make a sound argument for any remaining positions using the one-year ramp-up criteria. And on defense, one spot stands out.
4. Logic points to a DB at No. 25, but not the one you think
Ever since the Bills stormed through free agency, the chorus of “draft a cornerback at No. 25” has been a common refrain from the fan base. Mock drafts over the past month have followed suit. But in the grand scheme, the Bills would benefit far more in their defensive system from investing a premium pick into a safety than a cornerback. Follow their investments in the defensive backfield as a paper trail. They have given two substantial contracts to their starting safeties while banking on late-round prospect development and one-year prove-it deals at second cornerback. The strategy has worked. They can hide a second boundary cornerback to a certain degree. You can’t hide someone who lacks the versatility to play both the deep middle and inside the box for dependable run defense. If they whiff on a play, there are significant ramifications.
Their safeties have been a big reason the Bills have been so consistent and successful over the past five years. Poyer and Micah Hyde have set the tone and continuously bailed out the defense with high-level play, being in the right places and forcing turnovers throughout their Bills careers. All good things must come to an end, and eventually, there will be a decline in play due to age. Poyer and Hyde are entering their age-31 seasons, and contract expirations are coming.
This is dependent on one factor: Poyer. If the Bills don’t extend him past this season, they will have a huge hole at safety beginning in 2023. Last week, the Bills kept everything in the past and present tense, giving no hint that they intend to get a long-term deal done with Poyer. That brings us back to what Beane said in 2021, and looking long term with a first-round pick to help a position that may have a vacancy past the current season. Of all the positions listed above, safety means the most to their success and is a premium spot with their philosophy. And don’t forget that Hyde is a free agent after the 2023 season. In 2024, Hyde would be entering his age-33 season. There is a distinct possibility that the Bills will have two new starting safeties in 2024. This year’s draft is the time to act to keep a vitally important position strong.
5. So why does a cornerback make less sense than safety?
I get it. Everyone is nervous about White’s return from a torn ACL last year because it’s an unknown in what could be a Super Bowl push. But it would be slightly shortsighted to invest in what the Bills have viewed as a non-premium position for what could be only a handful of games in 2022. Especially when signing a veteran is still a clear possibility. They also remain bullish on Jackson, a third-year player, just as they did with Levi Wallace early in his career, amid similar external questions. And then, when you factor in McDermott’s hesitance to play rookies, it makes it a bit of a tougher sell. There are other factors at play here, too.
For one, the cornerback class outside of the top two has not drawn a lot of praise. The sweet spot for cornerbacks seems to be on Day 2 and early into Day 3. Take the word of Senior Bowl executive director and 18-year NFL scout Jim Nagy.
http://theathletic.com/
The term “fool’s gold” isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement. It would not be a shock to see players commonly linked to the Bills, such as Clemson’s Andrew Booth Jr., Washington’s Kyler Gordon and Florida’s Kaiir Elam, be available in the second round.
If that’s not enough, it’s wise to look at Beane and McDermott’s history of working together. The duo has spent 10 drafts together — six with the Panthers and four with the Bills. In those 10 drafts, they have invested in a boundary cornerback pick in the first five rounds only three times. They have never selected a boundary cornerback in the first round. Only McDermott did that with White in 2017 in Buffalo while working as the de facto GM before the Bills hired Beane after that draft. And the corners Beane and McDermott have picked in the first five rounds — Josh Norman (fifth round, 2012), James Bradberry (second round, 2016) and Daryl Worley (third round, 2016) — have all been hits. The developmental aspect matters to drive down draft-day cost, and even in Buffalo with White, Wallace and Jackson, McDermott has shown he can get the most out of cornerback prospects.
Regardless, it does seem this is a year to invest in a boundary cornerback, but they’d be better off doing that on Day 2 or early on Day 3. We’ll come back to the cornerbacks later. As for the safeties, one stands out in a big way.
6. Why Kyle Hamilton is everything Beane usually covets
If Beane, McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier could build a safety prospect from scratch, Kyle Hamilton would be the result. Hamilton (6-foot-4, 220 pounds) is at least two inches taller than every other prospect and 20 to 30 pounds bigger than the other top safeties. If there’s one thing that Beane loves to add with a first-round pick, it’s a player with elite size and traits who is unlike anyone else at his position. And there is no one else like Hamilton.
Hamilton’s versatility has both 2022 and long-term appeal, even with Poyer and Hyde as the top two safeties. He can give them reps as a base-defense linebacker and as a subpackage big nickel to cover tight ends or bigger slot receivers this year. He can also free up the Bills to use Poyer and Hyde in different ways, giving the Bills that much more of a dynamic feel to their scheme. Long term, he can fill almost any role they want while projecting best to Poyer’s strong safety spot. He can play the deep middle as a free safety, down in the box for run support and underneath coverage, and nickel corner in addition to his two possible roles in 2022. Hamilton has the fluidity to turn and run with receivers, and on top of it all, he has a playmaking instinct with a knack for big turnovers.
The Bills value versatility, instincts, recognition skills, range and playmaking heavily at safety. Hamilton has all of those, in addition to elite size and length. The cherry on top is that he just turned 21, which matches the Bills’ historical preference with their top pick (more on that in a bit). They’ll immediately find a way to take advantage of such a rare player, just as McDermott did with Shaq Thompson in Carolina when they didn’t have a starting role for him as a rookie.
It would be unwise to rule out any scenario with the Bills and a player like Hamilton. We have seen them get quite aggressive in moving up the draft board, usually for players with elite size and traits for their position, and Hamilton has both. Beane aims to hit a home run with his first-round pick every year, and when he finds a player he’s excited about, he will do what it takes to make it happen. If the Bills believe the player has the potential to become an All-Pro-caliber asset and has fallen below the level they value him in the draft, all bets are off. Because Hamilton plays a position that is less valued across the league, the Bills might be able to get the player some describe as “rare” and a “unicorn” at a massive discount. So then, let’s talk options for the Bills to go get Hamilton.
7. What is possible for the Bills to move up for Hamilton?
Beane didn’t do it in the last two drafts, but when he sees a player high up on his board falling, he’ll pounce. He traded up four times in his first two drafts with the Bills for quarterback Josh Allen, Edmunds, guard Cody Ford and Knox. He also admitted he tried to trade up for running back Zack Moss in 2020 but couldn’t find the right deal. As Hamilton represents a lot of what the Bills and Beane value out of a prospect, it’s time to analyze the cost of doing business.
Hamilton’s draft stock is all over the place. Some have him in the bottom half of the first round, while others have him potentially available in the teens. Tony Pauline of Pro Football Network reported that many in the league “think Hamilton ends up somewhere between picks 15 and 20.” We started it with the Giants at 7 and ended the pick before the Bills to account for all the possible Hamilton outcomes. Using the Rich Hill trade value chart as adapted by DraftTek.com, here are potential costs to move up in most years.
http://theathletic.com/
From that viewpoint, the sweet spot looks to be in that 13-15 range, where the Bills would be able to recoup a pick on the back end, give up only their second-round pick, or both. The cost is far less prohibitive past that 15th spot, but there is another thing to consider. Everyone is trying to move down this year, which could lower the cost to move up for a non-quarterback.

Within the past week, as the draft has drawn closer, multiple teams in the top half of the draft have inquired with others to try to trade back in the first round, per sources. So far, the interest in moving back in Thursday’s draft has greatly exceeded the interest in moving up.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 25, 2022

Perhaps it would only take the team’s third-round pick rather than a second to move into the 13-15 range. Or maybe it only takes the second-round pick to move up to 11 or 12. Many believe Hamilton could be one of the best players available in this draft, and his stock is mostly harmed by perceived positional value. The Bills should explore every avenue because Hamilton could be exceptional in their scheme.
8. At No. 25, two safeties stand out
If they stay put at No. 25 and are looking at safety, it comes down to Michigan’s Dax Hill and Georgia’s Lewis Cine.
Hill is an intriguing player because of his range, fluidity and ball skills. He worked at nickel corner in college but can play both safety spots if needed. My only concern is where they’d try to fit him in over the next two years. He has excellent versatility, but he’s more Hyde than Poyer. Hill’s best fit is either at nickel corner or free safety, and both of those positions are spoken for over the next two seasons. They could also use Hill at boundary cornerback in his rookie year, then move him to strong safety. However, it seems like an adventurous projection for a franchise that often stays away from overloading first-year players.
The more I’ve thought about Cine to Buffalo, the more I like it. He has the versatility to play both spots but is best suited to strong safety, usually played by Poyer. Cine is an excellent striker, offers outstanding run support and stands out on film despite playing for a super-talented Georgia defense. He has great movement skills and impressive fluidity, does a great job of disguising his coverages and recovering post-snap and plays with the instincts the Bills value at safety. Like Poyer, Cine is a bit understated in his impact on a game, but his positioning and physicality meant a lot to Georgia’s defense. The Poyer role would be perfect for Cine, and he could become a top-flight safety in the Bills’ scheme. In 2022, he can play base linebacker, special teams and cover tight ends in subpackages. Cine is on my short list of players I believe are in serious consideration at No. 25.
9. If they go offense, running back remains a first-round option
The Bills taking a running back is polarizing among the fan base, but they’ve hinted they’d like to get better at the position. First is the Singletary factor as he has only one year remaining on his contract. You could say the same for interior offensive line, but given their past draft investments, they value running back more than guard. With rising cap costs, Singletary is likely lower on the possible extension list than teammates like Oliver, Knox and Edmunds.
The Bills will want to have a succession plan in place without relying on a first-year player at running back. There is also a huge drop-off on the depth chart from Singletary to Zack Moss or Duke Johnson. Should anything happen to Singletary, the Bills will become an entirely predictable pass-first offense. On multiple occasions last season, McDermott stressed having the “threat to run” to challenge a defense. The Bills offense didn’t explode until they worked in more two-tight-end formations, and Singletary began to play well near the end of the season. The last thing the Bills want is to lose that by having poor depth behind Singletary.
There also has been a lot of offseason talk about protecting Allen, and one way to do that is by not calling so many quarterback runs. Some scrambles are inevitable, but the Bills know the only way they will win a Super Bowl is if Allen is healthy. A high-level investment in a running back who can challenge a defense in dynamic ways is an excellent way to give their quarterback plays off. It wouldn’t necessarily encourage the Bills to run the ball more, but it would allow them to run more effectively and avoid unnecessary hits on Allen.
And the most important point, the Bills are perfectly fine taking a running back in the first round if that player is atop their board. Beane acknowledged the team had running backs, plural, with first-round grades over the past four drafts. That means more than just Saquon Barkley in 2018. There was reported interest in Travis Etienne last year, which seemed legitimate. If there is an explosive back with home-run potential who can add to their passing game, the Bills could easily take one in the first round. And there might be one that possesses all of those qualities.
10. Why Breece Hall is a great fit
Generally speaking, the Bills have tried to swing for the fences with their first-round pick every time under Beane. Allen, Edmunds, Oliver and Rousseau are all high potential prospects that had the ceiling to ascend to one of the best at their position. Just as it rings true in a trade-up for Hamilton, the same goes for Iowa State running back Breece Hall. The Bills have plenty of things they’re looking for in a new running back, and Hall has the potential to check every box to become a genuine three-down threat.
The Bills do not have anything like Hall on their roster. It’s why he’s in the discussion for the No. 25 pick or a trade-back scenario. He has excellent size, speed and explosiveness, all while playing with tremendous patience. That home-run element of turning something into nothing in the open field and then the build-up speed to pull away from defenders is something neither Singletary nor Moss possesses. That helps put him above the other running back prospects.
http://theathletic.com/

Iowa State’s Breece Hall would give the Bills traits their running game is lacking. (John E. Moore III / Getty Images)
His patient running style is ideally suited to the zone blocking principles the Bills are likely to use more, where Hall can read his keys and get upfield after he reads the line and chooses the optimal lane. He’s also a third-down threat with a good baseline of skills and the potential to improve as a pass catcher and blocker. In his annual draft guide, The Beast, The Athletic’s draft expert Dane Brugler pointed out that possibility. “Smooth body control as a pass catcher to adjust and pull in erratic throws,” Brugler said. “Gutsy in pass protection with the poise and power to get better.” Hall had 82 catches over three seasons and averaged 9 yards per reception.
Hall turns 21 at the end of May, which matches the Bills’ usual lean with their first-round pick. According to Player Profiler, his best comparable NFL player, based on advanced metrics and workout scores, is Colts star running back Jonathan Taylor. Hall would be a fascinating fit in Buffalo’s offense.
11. What about receiver or guard in Round 1?
A receiver is a good option in theory, but a few things stand in the way. The first goes back to what Beane said in 2021. They have an excellent top four, and three of those are signed through the 2023 season (Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis and McKenzie). They are not hurting for depth at receiver and still have a pair of developmental assets in Marquez Stevenson and Isaiah Hodgins. So a roster spot could become an issue, especially if the Bills select a running back.
Second, if the Bills wind up using more two-tight-end formations, as their offseason activity indicates, that takes the third receiver off the field. Because of that approach, the need to add another prime resource to the receiver corps could be reduced. And last, both McDermott and Beane don’t seem concerned about finding receiver talent in future drafts.
“I think you’re going to see receivers every year from now on being one of the deeper classes because of all the seven-on-seven, all the passing that’s started on the youth level,” Beane said last week. “You go watch Pop Warner football, they’re chucking the ball. That’s going to be a position that will generally be one of the deep ones in every draft.”
With a star receiver in Diggs and a budding star in Davis, a third receiver might be a bit of overkill in the first round.
Interior offensive line became less of a pressing need once center Mitch Morse signed a two-year extension through 2024. The Bills need a guard to develop for depth in 2022 and potentially to start in 2023, but they have never assigned big-money resources or primary draft capital on one. They might better use the first-round pick on another position so the Bills can take advantage of the interior line depth of this year’s class. But if their board falls completely flat, Boston College’s Zion Johnson could be a fallback option with long-term potential to play center. Still, it’s unlikely the Bills will invest a premium resource in a guard.
12. Trading down might be difficult, but …
Beane revealed that the Bills do not have 32 first-round grades in 2022, which is more common than you’d think. It could be problematic if they go on the clock and no players left with a first-round grade are available. In that case, Beane said he’d look to trade down. The difficulty is that the Bills are likely not alone in thinking this class lacks top-end appeal. For as much that the Bills could benefit from a move up at a slightly reduced cost, they might not receive a trade package worth moving down from No. 25. That is, except for one scenario.
If the quarterbacks fall outside the top 15, an opportunity might arrive. As of now, if those quarterbacks are still available, the Saints (Nos. 16 and 19) and the Steelers (No. 20) would be the most plausible spots for a quarterback run to begin. There isn’t another quarterback threat after the Steelers until the Titans pick at No. 26, as many regard Tennessee as a sneaky team to use its first pick on that position. That’s where the Bills can benefit because they have the pick directly ahead of the Titans.
The Lions could be the team to move up because they own both Nos. 32 and 34. The Bills could trade down to one of those spots and swap their fourth-round pick (No. 130) for the Lions’ early third-round pick (No. 76). The other team I’m keeping my eye on in a potential Bills trade-down scenario is Seattle. The Seahawks own the 40th and 41st picks and could easily move up without sacrificing their only second-round pick. A trade could yield the Bills pick Nos. 40, 72 and 152.
13. The age factor
Before we dive into Day 2, let’s take a quick aside. The Bills are now four drafts into Beane’s tenure as the team’s GM, which is enough of a sample size to spot some trends. In the early rounds, one of them is the prospect’s age at the time of selection. And Beane typically veers young with his premium picks. Since the 2018 NFL Draft, the Bills have selected four players in the first round and 12 players in the first three rounds.

Early round Bills draft ages, 2018-2021

We’ll start with the first round. On the day they were selected, Allen, Edmunds, Oliver and Rousseau had an average age of 21.09 years old. Allen was the oldest of the four prospects at 21.93. Edmunds’ age on draft day (19.98) is an anomaly that could skew the data. However, even if Edmunds were a year older, the average age would still only be 21.34. It’s only four picks and could be nothing more than a tiebreaker between similarly graded prospects, but it’s worth noting that Beane has leaned young. Regardless, here are the ages of the top prospects within first-round consideration at the six possible positions.

Potential Bills first-round target ages PlayerPositionAge on draft dayBills 1st Round +/-Bills Top 3 Round +/-Breece HallRB20.910.181.05Kaiir ElamCB20.980.110.98Kyle HamiltonS21.12-0.030.84Kenyon GreenIOL21.12-0.030.84Nakobe DeanLB21.38-0.290.59Kenneth Walker IIIRB21.52-0.430.44Daxton HillS21.58-0.490.38Andrew Booth Jr.CB21.58-0.490.38Trent McDuffieCB21.63-0.540.34Skyy MooreWR21.63-0.540.33Chris OlaveWR21.84-0.750.12Quay WalkerLB21.97-0.88-0.01Tyler LinderbaumC22.06-0.97-0.10Treylon BurksWR22.10-1.01-0.14Jahan DotsonWR22.10-1.01-0.14Kyler GordonCB22.36-1.27-0.40Zion JohnsonIOL22.44-1.35-0.48Lewis CineS22.56-1.47-0.60Chad MumaLB22.69-1.60-0.73Devin LloydLB23.58-2.49-1.62

The average age increases when you include the second and third rounds but remains relatively low because of the first round. Their early-round average age is 21.96, but when you take out the four first-round choices, that goes up to 22.40. Prospects aged 22 and up at the time of selection made up six of their eight picks in the second and third rounds. However, they didn’t go too far over until last year. Before selecting Boogie Basham (23.37) last year, the Bills had not taken a player older than 22.45 out of the 10 early-round prospects. One round later, they chose Spencer Brown (23.17). It is fair to wonder if selecting older players last year may have been a product of a condensed draft pool because of the pandemic. Either way, age has mattered less to the Bills on Day 2.
14. OK, back to cornerback. Who fits the profile?
There are two characteristics the Bills typically like to invest in with boundary cornerbacks. First, the player needs to be a good tackler because of how they position the edge rushers, and they prefer longer arms to help disrupt passes in the standard zone defense. Over the last five years, the nine boundary cornerbacks the Bills have used in the starting lineup have had an average arm length of 31.5 inches. But dating to Beane and McDermott’s Carolina days, that average goes up dramatically with player selected in the first five rounds. The average arm length of Tre’Davious White, Josh Norman, James Bradberry and Daryl Worley is 32.906 inches, and no player’s arm length was 32.125 inches. Using both the premium draft and Bills starter thresholds, here is how the top 25 available cornerbacks relate to the Bills’ past preferences.

CB arm length vs. Bills thresholds Player  Brugler Rank  Arm Length  Premium Draft +/-  Bills Starter +/-  Ahmad Gardner533.5000.5942.000Trent McDuffie1229.750-3.156-1.750Derek Stingley Jr.1430.625-2.281-0.875Andrew Booth Jr.2631.500-1.4060.000Kaiir Elam4530.875-2.031-0.625Kyler Gordon5131.000-1.906-0.500Roger McCreary5528.875-4.031-2.625Cam Taylor-Britt5731.500-1.4060.000Marcus Jones7028.875-4.031-2.625Tariq Woolen8133.6250.7192.125Coby Bryant8730.625-2.281-0.875Joshua Williams9332.875-0.0311.375Damarri Mathis9631.875-1.0310.375Zyon McCollum10230.750-2.156-0.750Jalyn Armour-Davis11730.875-2.031-0.625Akayleb Evans12132.000-0.9060.500Tariq Castro-Fields13030.750-2.156-0.750Josh Jobe14432.625-0.2811.125Jaylen Watson15032.250-0.6560.750Kalon Barnes15931.750-1.1560.250Martin Emerson16733.5000.5942.000Cordale Flott16930.125-2.781-1.375Cobie Durant18630.750-2.156-0.750Damarion Williams18829.625-3.281-1.875Chase Lucas19631.875-1.0310.375Dallis Flowers24232.000-0.9060.500

Ahmad Gardner is the only early-round prospect whose arm length is slam dunk for a draft pick, but he’ll be long gone by the time the Bills pick. Of the other first-round candidates, Booth is the only one who hits the Bills starter threshold, but he falls more than an inch shy of the premium draft resource threshold. The other three standouts with arm length are Tariq Woolen of UTSA, Martin Emerson of Mississippi State and Joshua Williams of Fayetteville State.
According to Brugler, Woolen is “currently untrustworthy in run support” with “too many fly-by tackle attempts because of below-average technique and finishing skills.” That gives me pause about Woolen as a fit in Buffalo. Emerson seems like a potential fit for the Bills as a cornerback and on special teams, but Brugler pointed out he needs to clean up his run support. Emerson has visited the Bills in the pre-draft process.
http://theathletic.com/

Joshua Williams is the type of cornerback prospect Bills GM Brandon Beane loves. (Justin Casterline / Getty Images)
Of the three, Williams is my top fit for the Bills for more than just his arm length and willingness as a run defender. He’s a former wide receiver who only transitioned to cornerback as a senior in high school, which means there is a lot of growth potential. The Bills love having defensive backs who have something to prove, and Williams’ journey has put him in that position. He didn’t receive a single offer out of high school, much like Levi Wallace, then had to go to a prep school. He received offers after one year there but only from Division II programs. Williams has had to fight to become a legitimate draft prospect. With his size, untapped potential, drive and what Brugler calls a “coachable attitude,” I could see McDermott and Beane identifying him as a perfect prospect to develop into a long-term starting cornerback.
15. If not Hall at RB, then who?
The one player I keep coming back to is Isaiah Spiller. There have been multiple signs this offseason that the Bills may be looking to run more zone principles, and Spiller was outstanding running those concepts at Texas A&M. With 74 receptions in three seasons, Spiller is also an accomplished pass catcher out of the backfield who didn’t drop a single pass last year. His pass protection is far more consistent than others in the class and can help him stay on the field.
His slow 40 time is a primary issue, but with how he maximizes chances in the open field and his play speed, the Bills will likely be willing to look past that. Beane trusts his eyes on film when scouting running backs, so he’s not likely to be swayed by one subpar workout. Spiller would be an extremely enticing option at No. 57.
In the third round, Georgia’s James Cook is an intriguing possibility for his pass-catching prowess alone. If they were to move back from No. 25 and secure an early pick in the fourth round, they might even be able to get him there. Hall, Spiller and Cook appear to be the three who would give the Bills something they don’t have on their roster.
Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker III, he becomes more of a projectional fit for what they don’t have than Hall, Spiller or Cook. The Spartans used Walker as a pass catcher sporadically, which isn’t as big an issue as his pass blocking. Brugler detailed the weaknesses in The Beast.
“Low batting average as a pass blocker, and his technique needs to be rebuilt from the ground up … guilty of half-hearted cuts or shoulder chips … only 19 career catches and untested as a route runner … inconsistent finishing skills when targeted away from his body.”
Despite Walker’s exciting one-cut style, his weakness may make him a nonstarter for the Bills. He’s a pure rusher prospect, but it’s a slightly tougher sell with the unknown third-down ability. They also have not had any reported contact with Walker in the pre-draft process.
16. Day 2 WRs of interest
If the Bills don’t take a running back in the early rounds, that certainly puts receiver back into the conversation — but with a specific type in mind. The Bills should first look for a receiver who can do a little bit of everything, including home-run ability and yards after catch potential. Taking handoffs out of the backfield and on jet sweeps wouldn’t hurt, either. Players such as Wan’Dale Robinson of Kentucky and Calvin Austin III of Memphis stand out with that vision in mind.
If that’s unavailable, a technician of a slot receiver wouldn’t be a bad consolation prize. Alabama’s John Metchie III and Boise State’s Khalil Shakir stand out as Day 2 prospects who would fit those parameters. Penn State’s Jahan Dotson and Western Michigan’s Skyy Moore will likely be long gone when No. 57 rolls around. They would enter the equation if the Bills traded down from No. 25 and into the early second round. However, if the Bills take a running back early, I would not be surprised if they punt on wide receiver or only use a late-round flier on someone.
17. Interior offensive lineman shaping up as a Round 2-5 must have
Once the Bills signed Saffold and matched Ryan Bates’ four-year offer sheet from Chicago, the starting lineup seemed set on the offensive line. But the one thing that remains unsettled is the depth at guard and center behind Saffold, Bates and Morse. The top reserve is Ford, who has struggled and isn’t as strong as a fit with the offensive linemen they’ve been adding. Past him, all the Bills have is David Quessenberry, Greg Mancz and Ike Boettger, and Boettger likely still has a long road to recovery from a late-season torn Achilles.
At best, the depth is unsettling, which means the Bills need an infusion of youth and talent. Regardless if it’s a guard only, a guard who can play tackle in a pinch, or a guard who can also play center, interior depth is one of their most prominent mid-round needs.
18. The Bills’ recent OL building trend and names to monitor
I mentioned that Ford isn’t as strong of a fit anymore, and that’s because the Bills have recently made it a point to invest in offensive linemen with great athletic profiles. An excellent tool to measure a prospect’s composite workout score is the Relative Athletic Score. It factors in size, speed, strength, agility and explosiveness drills in a player’s draft year relative to the historical date of players at their position. The closer the score is to 10, the better the athlete. The Bills’ presumed top six linemen that they’ve spent premium offseason resources on lean a certain way.

2022 Bills OL Relative Athletic Scores

The average of those six players is 9.40. If you remove Dawkins, whom they invested a long-term deal into before this new wave of athletic signings began, the Relative Athletic Score average bumps up to 9.70. They also jettisoned Daryl Williams (3.31) and Jon Feliciano (3.17) this offseason. Plus, recent signee David Quessenberry had a 9.44. They seem to have a type. So which interior prospects reflect well with a Relative Athletic Score?

IOL Prospect Relative Athletic Scores PlayerBrugler RankRelative Athletic ScorePremium Resource +/-Without Dawkins +/-Bernhard Raimann369.970.570.27Cole Strange739.950.550.25Cam Jurgens499.940.540.24Zach Tom1319.930.530.23Zion Johnson229.750.350.05Dawson Deaton2419.700.300.00Logan Bruss1429.620.22-0.08Chris Paul1979.450.05-0.25Sean Rhyan949.33-0.07-0.37Zachary Thomas2349.00-0.40-0.70Tyler Linderbaum198.84-0.56-0.86Dylan Parham728.80-0.60-0.90Alec Lindstrom2278.35-1.05-1.35Joshua Ezeudu1018.32-1.08-1.38Spencer Burford1338.24-1.16-1.46Nicholas Petit-Frere997.78-1.62-1.92Cade Mays1987.56-1.84-2.14Justin Shaffer1417.53-1.87-2.17Ed Ingram1147.41-1.99-2.29Luke Fortner757.29-2.11-2.41Dohnovan West1727.01-2.39-2.69

If the Bills hold to their trend, keep an eye on these names as the draft gets deeper. The Bills have had pre-draft visits with Sean Rhyan (9.33), Dylan Parham (8.80), Joshua Ezuedu (8.32), Spencer Burford (8.24) and Nicholas Petit-Frere (7.78).
19. Linebacker is in the same boat as interior offensive line
With Edmunds’ contract situation and a lack of dependable depth behind him and Matt Milano, it seems essential for the Bills to take a linebacker in the first five rounds. Although a polarizing player, Edmunds has the profile that the Bills usually invest in with cap space. It’s unclear if that’s their plan, but if so, there won’t be as much of push for an early-round linebacker. Even with Edmunds on a long-term deal, they need someone who can capably fill in for base formations and be the replacement if one of the starters suffers an injury. If the Bills trade up for Hamilton, that could be a way to satisfy the need for only 2022. If not, anywhere from the second to the sixth round should be in play.
20. Day 2 safeties to monitor
If the Bills don’t move up for Kyle Hamilton and decide on a different position in the first round, or if they move out of the first round, they’ll have some options. We mentioned Lewis Cine earlier as an option at 25 if they have to stay put, but he should also be someone to watch in a trade-down scenario. Cine appears to be on the first- and second-round line. Depending on how far down the Bills might trade down, Cine could be an option. Past Cine, Maryland’s Nick Cross is well-suited to the Bills’ scheme as a hybrid safety. As a free safety on his best reps, he exhibits excellent patience when he needs to play the deep middle, and then at strong safety, he brings the physicality to get downhill in a hurry, which the Bills love. Cross could be a steal on Day 2 if he pairs some of his risk-taking with developing instincts and recognition skills over time. Cincinnati’s Bryan Cook is another strong fit for the Bills in the third round.
21. Don’t ignore all the pre-draft work on tight ends
If you go through the pre-draft visitors list, which Ryan Talbot of Syracuse.com did an excellent job compiling, you’ll notice a lot of names on the tight end list. They’ve had Isaiah Likely (Coastal Carolina), Jalen Wydermyer (Texas A&M) and James Mitchell (Virginia Tech) in for a top-30 visit. They also held a private workout with Trey McBride (Colorado State). The logic for adding a tight end makes sense, too. The Bills don’t have any tight ends signed beyond 2022, and with how successful they were running two-tight-end formations at the end of last season, they’ll likely want a plan in place. Drafting one this year would give that player a redshirt year before taking over as Knox’s backup. Round 3 or later seems like the appropriate range given their need.
22. Get ready: It’s almost #Puntapalooza time
The Bills don’t have many roster spots open, and Beane wants to take advantage of the four-year rookie contracts by selecting players who can make the team this year. That should put a punter on the draft radar, and I wouldn’t rule out a punter on Day 3 — even in the fourth round. The top two this year, San Diego State’s Matt Araiza and Penn State’s Jordan Stout, are compelling because they compare well with the last two Bills punters. Araiza is a big-legged punter like Corey Bojorquez, who may have less precision than other punters but can completely flip the field. Stout is more like what the Bills wanted Matt Haack to be, not having as big of a leg but offering more consistency and accuracy to pin teams deep. Both punting approaches have compelled the Bills, so it’s wide open between them. It may come down to draft cost. Regardless of who it is, I’ve got my stopwatch ready.
(Top photo of Kyle Hamilton: Darren Lee / Cal Sport Media via ZUMA Wire / Associated Press)
!function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s)
{if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function(){n.callMethod?
n.callMethod.apply(n,arguments):n.queue.push(arguments)};
if(!f._fbq)f._fbq=n;n.push=n;n.loaded=!0;n.version=’2.0′;
n.queue=[];t=b.createElement(e);t.async=!0;
t.src=v;s=b.getElementsByTagName(e)[0];
s.parentNode.insertBefore(t,s)}(window, document,’script’,
‘https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/fbevents.js’);
fbq(‘dataProcessingOptions’, []);
fbq(‘init’, ‘207679059578897’);
fbq(‘track’, ‘PageView’); .

NFL draft 2022 – Reporters answer 32 biggest questions, including positions to target, potential trades, teams to watch

NFL draft 2022 – Reporters answer 32 biggest questions, including positions to target, potential trades, teams to watch

7:00 AM ET

  • NFL NationESPN

The 2022 NFL draft is just two weeks away (Round 1 begins April 28 at 8 p.m. on ESPN and ABC) and there are still many questions about how all 32 teams will approach the draft.And no wonder why. This year’s wild free agency filled holes for some teams and created major needs for others. Plus, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offseason strategy altered entirely when Tom Brady decided to not retire after all.So will the Green Bay Packers, with two first-round picks after the Davante Adams trade, forgo their strategy of not drafting receivers in the first round? Will the Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Detroit Lions or Pittsburgh Steelers try to draft a quarterback early … or wait until 2023?What will the New York Jets and New York Giants do with two top-10 selections apiece? And how will the teams with no first-round picks try to upgrade?No one knows for certain what any of the 32 teams will do, but our NFL Nation reporters have a pretty good idea. Below, NFL draft analysts Matt Miller and Jordan Reid — who outlined every team’s needs last week — asked 32 questions of our reporters, one per team.Consider this an early look at what each team is thinking two weeks away from Round 1, sorted by division:Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSHAFC EASTReid: Will the Bills entertain the possibility of taking a running back in the first round because of their need in the backfield?It certainly is not out of the question. The Bills clearly feel like running back is a need — they attempted to sign J.D. McKissic — and adding Duke Johnson in free agency isn’t enough to fill the missing piece. Buffalo has the flexibility in the draft to go after the player who best adds to the roster. A dynamic back would be a valuable addition, although history hasn’t been kind to drafting the position in the first round. General manager Brandon Beane was in the Panthers’ front office that drafted Christian McCaffrey eighth overall in 2017. — Alaina Getzenberg2 RelatedReid: The Dolphins don’t pick until the last selection of the third round (No. 102 overall). What position(s) could they target there?Dolphins general manager Chris Grier went to work this offseason, shoring up the team’s dismal offensive line from a season ago, adding one of the best receivers in the league in Tyreek Hill and infusing their running backs room with talent — all while retaining every defensive starter from last season. Miami is truly in a position to take the best player available, but should prioritize inside linebacker and interior offensive line. — Marcel Louis-JacquesReid: Now that the team has acquired DeVante Parker, could wide receiver still be in play or will another position be targeted at No. 21 overall?Wide receiver is still in play if that is the way the board falls, with the key consideration that Nelson Agholor and Jakobi Meyers — two of the top returning pass-catchers — are scheduled for unrestricted free agency after the 2022 season. One thing to consider, however, is that in his prior 22 drafts with the Patriots, Bill Belichick has selected a first-round receiver just once (2019, N’Keal Harry). — Mike ReissReid: After an aggressive attempt to trade for Tyreek Hill, do you foresee a wide receiver being selected at No. 10 overall?Assuming the Jets don’t trade for a veteran by the draft, yes, it is a possibility. The top candidates are Drake London, Garrett Wilson and perhaps even Jameson Williams. But it is not a sure thing, especially not with two picks near the top of Round 2. With a deep receiver class, they could find a comparable talent in the second round. General manager Joe Douglas won’t reach for a need at No. 10 if better players are available. — Rich CiminiAFC NORTHReid: Which position will the Ravens fill at No. 14 overall knowing they still need help in the trenches and at cornerback?The Ravens have to select the best available pass-rusher or cornerback. Baltimore’s biggest need is at outside linebacker because Tyus Bowser tore his Achilles in the season finale and Za’Darius Smith backed out of an agreement in free agency. There’s also a void at cornerback where there is no depth outside of Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters, both of whom suffered season-ending injuries last season. — Jamison Hensley• Ranks: Kiper » | McShay » | Positions »
• Mocks: Kiper » | McShay » | Reid »
• Stacking the QBs » | Intriguing teams »
• Full draft order » | First Draft podcast »
• More coverage » | Full rankings »
Reid: Since the Bengals upgraded their offensive line in free agency, what other position could they target at No. 31 overall?It makes sense for the Bengals to look at cornerbacks in the first round. Cincinnati has two veterans in Eli Apple and Chidobe Awuzie, but could use a young player who can be a long-term starter in 2022 and beyond. Cincinnati has never been shy about taking corners toward the end of the first round. — Ben BabyReid: With Deshaun Watson now at quarterback, is drafting a receiver early a possibility or will general manager Andrew Berry look to add elsewhere?Wide receiver is the position to watch for the Browns in the draft. Cleveland did trade for Amari Cooper this offseason, but this group still needs work to unlock potential chunk plays in the passing game. The Browns don’t have a first-round pick after the Deshaun Watson trade, but they could select a potential starter in the second round, or look to trade up in what is shaping up to be a strong receiving draft class. — Jake TrotterReid: Could the Steelers trade up for a quarterback or will they look to address another position in the first round?The Steelers have been adamant that free-agency moves won’t preclude them from adding to a position in the draft — and that includes quarterback. But, it seems unlikely that the Steelers would move up to grab one. They have traded their first-round pick only six times in the common draft era. The Steelers could still draft a quarterback in the first, but the board would have to fall the right way to make it happen. Otherwise, look for the team to draft best player available, with an emphasis on defensive back, wide receiver, inside linebacker and defensive line. — Brooke PryorAFC SOUTHMiller: With the No. 3 overall pick, are the Texans in “best player available” mode or will it be a pick to fill a need?The answer has to be best player available. The Texans have so many holes in their roster that general manager Nick Caserio shouldn’t be picky about which positions of need he is filling. After trading Watson, Caserio said he didn’t want to eliminate any position in the draft, including quarterback. While it seems unlikely the general manager would use one of Houston’s top picks on a quarterback, just about every other position is fair game. — Sarah BarshopAnswer questions on the 2022 NFL draft for a chance to win $100,000! Make Your Picks
Miller: Without a first-round pick, how do the Colts solve their need at left tackle?Expect the Colts to look in-house first to try to address the departure of veteran Eric Fisher at left tackle. Matt Pryor will get the first crack at protecting Matt Ryan’s blindside. “He’s a young player we think has a lot of talent,” general manager Chris Ballard said on the “Pat McAfee Show” last season. Pryor, 28, is a versatile offensive lineman who can play tackle and guard. — Mike WellsMiller: Aidan Hutchinson is a favorite for the No. 1 overall pick, but what should Jacksonville look for at pick No. 33?If the team is serious about taking the “build around Trevor Lawrence” approach, then a receiver or an interior offensive lineman should be the focus here. The Jaguars did add Christian Kirk and Zay Jones in free agency, but adding another pass-catcher — especially an outside receiver — is another investment in Lawrence. However, the Jaguars need to beef up the interior line, so using No. 33 to fill a need there would also make sense. — Michael DiRoccoMiller: Wide receiver has been a hot mock draft pick for the Titans, but is the offensive line more of a first-round target?Yes, the offensive line is more of a target because the Titans have two starting spots up for grabs. Tennessee would like 2021 second-round pick Dillon Radunz to take one of the vacant starting spots. This year’s receiver group is pretty deep so the Titans could take a wideout later in the draft. Whoever they select isn’t likely to get an abundance of targets behind A.J. Brown, Robert Woods and Austin Hooper. — Turron DavenportAFC WESTMiller: What does an ideal early draft look like for the Broncos, who don’t have many on-paper needs?Even after trading for Russell Wilson, the Broncos have eight picks in the draft — five of those over the first 116 picks. They need some help with cornerback, edge rusher, linebacker, a right tackle prospect and possibly an impact returner. But cornerback should be the priority since the quickest way to watch your defensive plan crumble in today’s NFL is to be unable to handle the inevitable injuries at cornerback, or be unable to show variety in your nickel and dime packages because you don’t have the players to do it. — Jeff LegwoldMiller: Will general manager Brett Veach and coach Andy Reid use picks Nos. 29 and 30 or is a trade possible?A trade does seem more likely than not. The Chiefs also have two picks in each of the second, third and fourth rounds. They can easily move for a player or players they like and Veach likes to deal. He traded the Chiefs’ first-round pick in two of the past three years and has traded up in the second round a couple of times since his first draft as GM in 2018. — Adam Teicherplay2:40Stephen A. Smith and Dan Orlovsky have differing levels of interest in the Chiefs’ upcoming slew of draft picks.Miller: Should the Raiders go all-in on the defensive side of the ball in this draft?And here we are at the need vs. best player available argument again, right? There’s no doubt the Raiders, who don’t have picks in the first or second rounds (Las Vegas gave them to Green Bay for Davante Adams), need to go all-in on the defensive side of the ball in the draft. But how many difference-makers can be found there at the end of Day 2 and Day 3? And as new coach Josh McDaniels said at the NFL owners meetings, the Raiders would go with the best player, even if it means drafting three straight players at the same position. That works … if all three are defensive players, right? — Paul GutierrezMiller: It feels like it is offensive tackle or bust for the Chargers in Round 1, but what other positions are a need for L.A.?Yes, the Chargers have added to their pass rush (Khalil Mack) and pass defense (J.C. Jackson), but after having the 30th-ranked rush defense, they also need help down low and in the trenches. A run-stuffing and gap-eating defensive tackle would foot the bill here. But would Georgia’s Jordan Davis still be there at No. 17 overall? — Paul GutierrezNFC EASTReid: Which positions could the Cowboys target early to replenish the talent lost on the roster?Regardless of the players they lost, it is obvious where the Cowboys will be looking: offensive line, wide receiver and defensive line. They lost Connor Williams, Amari Cooper, Cedrick Wilson and Randy Gregory at those spots in either a trade or during free agency, and the offensive line remains the one spot they have yet to replenish in free agency. They added wideout James Washington and pass-rusher Dante Fowler Jr. as outside free agents, but their additions will not prevent the Cowboys from adding a player at their position even early in the draft. — Todd ArcherReid: With three picks in the top 36, what could general manager Joe Schoen identify to build this roster the way he wants to construct it?The Giants absolutely have to address the offensive line, specifically offensive tackle. But, really, almost anything applies. “We have enough needs on the roster to take the best player available,” Schoen said recently. And he is not kidding. Edge rusher and cornerback also should be at the top of his list. — Jordan RaananReid: With two first-round picks, will the Eagles entertain the idea of selecting a receiver for the third consecutive year?They tried to trade for Calvin Ridley before his suspension and went after free-agent receivers, signalling their desire to upgrade the position. The big-money contracts handed out to veteran receivers of late should further incentivize teams to look for lower-cost options in the draft. So sure, I think the Eagles will entertain drafting a receiver in the first round if the stars align, but I’d put defensive line and defensive back as the more likely positions they’ll address early, with receiver in play on Day 2. — Tim McManusReid: Where are the Commanders’ biggest holes, and what could they look for in Round 1?Receiver is definitely on the list. Carson Wentz needs another target. But they also love their Buffalo nickel package and want someone to replace Landon Collins in the safety/linebacker hybrid role — but that makes sense only at No. 11 if Kyle Hamilton is available. Cornerback would make sense, as would linebacker, though with them using fewer three-linebacker sets it is hard to envision. Finally, coach Ron Rivera has often said how important it is to not only give a quarterback players to throw to, but you then have to protect him. — John KeimNFC NORTHReid: Could the Bears double-dip at wideout in the second round to give Justin Fields more options?The Bears have picks at Nos. 39 and 48 and could be in play for receivers Skyy Moore, George Pickens or John Metchie III at either of those spots. General manager Ryan Poles likes how deep the middle rounds of the draft appear to be, so it’s possible Chicago ends up walking away from Day 2 with two receivers by selecting one in the second round and another in the third. Because the Bears have only six picks, the team could look to create more if the opportunity presents itself. Therefore, it’s possible Chicago takes a receiver in the second and trades back with its additional second-round pick to create more draft capital to use in later rounds. — Courtney CroninReid: Jared Goff is under contract for two more years, but will Brad Holmes entertain the idea of selecting a QB with either the No. 2 or No. 32 overall picks?I’m sure the Lions will likely entertain the possibility of picking a quarterback, just like with any other positions. But I seriously don’t think they’ll take that risk — at least not right now. Detroit sees Goff as their guy, but that could change next year depending on how this season goes. The Lions need their first-round picks to come in and contribute immediately and won’t have the time to develop a young quarterback — particularly in a class that isn’t considered to be great by draft experts. — Eric Woodyardplay0:42Jordan Reid predicts the Lions will rebuild with Malik Willis.Reid: With two selections on Day 1, will general manager Brian Gutekunst abandon the organization’s philosophy of not drafting wide receivers in the first round in order to replace Davante Adams?Doesn’t the streak have to end this year? In fact, it wouldn’t be a total surprise if the Packers used first- and second-round picks on receivers. They haven’t added a receiver since Adams was traded. — Rob DemovskyReid: Cornerback is an obvious need for the Vikings, but what are other positions general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah could try to take in the first round?Another area of need for the Vikings is offensive guard. Ezra Cleveland is an established starter on one side, but the Vikings’ attention during free agency at the position suggests they are concerned about the other. They signed three veteran guards — Jesse Davis, Chris Reed and Austin Schlottmann — but none can be considered slam-dunk starters. — Kevin SeifertNFC SOUTHMiller: If the Falcons don’t draft a quarterback in Round 1, where will they go?The Falcons can really go anywhere — and I wouldn’t necessarily lock them into a quarterback at the moment. They are in a rebuild in which the franchise needs help at literally every position. So if they believe a quarterback is the best value at No. 8, they would go that direction. But wide receiver, edge rusher, interior defensive line and offensive line are possibilities, without question. The only way Atlanta goes quarterback is if management is completely convinced the player could be the Falcons’ guy for the next decade. Otherwise they need too much help elsewhere. — Michael RothsteinMiller: Are the Panthers desperate enough at quarterback to draft one at No. 6 overall?Desperate might be a little strong, but yes. They made it obvious that Sam Darnold isn’t the answer by their pursuit of Deshaun Watson and interest in other quarterbacks. General manager Scott Fitterer has said there are a couple of quarterbacks in this year’s class worthy of a top-10 pick. The Panthers were at the pro days of Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh), Malik Willis (Liberty) and Matt Corral (Mississippi), and are having each in for official visits. Carolina hasn’t used a first-round pick on a quarterback since Cam Newton in 2011 — and since then the Panthers have used only one draft pick total on a quarterback.. — David Newtonplay0:51Todd McShay and Mel Kiper Jr. makes the argument for Kenny Pickett over Malik Willis for the Panthers with the sixth pick.Miller: After trading to add another first-round pick, what two positions are ideal for the Saints to land in Round 1?The Saints should target wide receiver and left tackle. Obviously the quarterback position will be in play, too, until the Saints lock into their next long-term solution. But they plan on making a playoff run this year and need to give Jameis Winston reinforcements to help revive last year’s 32nd-ranked passing offense. They need another premium pass-catcher alongside the returning Michael Thomas and a long-term replacement at left tackle. — Mike TriplettMiller: The Bucs drafted for future needs in the early rounds last year. Will we see a similar strategy with Tom Brady coming back?Because the Bucs re-signed all 22 starters on offense and defense last year, they were able to look toward the future and focus on bolstering special teams. But this year, they have a glaring need along their interior defensive line without Ndamukong Suh and are looking thin at edge rusher without Jason Pierre-Paul, so I would start there. Then the Bucs should address guard with Shaq Mason being the only sure starter and tight end, because Rob Gronkowski hasn’t yet committed to playing in 2022 and O.J. Howard departed for the Bills. — Jenna LaineNFC WESTMiller: It seems like offensive line is a guaranteed first-round pick, but is there another direction the Cardinals could go?Picking an offensive lineman is far from guaranteed for the Cardinals considering how many offensive options they lost in free agency. If the lineman is the best option by far there, then it could be a good choice. But Arizona needs playmakers, so a wide receiver would be the other move at No. 23. The Cardinals need to give quarterback Kyler Murray all of the targets if they want to get back to the playoffs and beat the Rams. Chase Edmonds and Christian Kirk have moved on, and A.J. Green is still a free agent. Those three account for a significant chunk of the Cardinals’ offensive production last year. They will be getting DeAndre Hopkins back this season, but he needs others to complement him. — Josh WeinfussMiller: The Rams don’t have a selection until late in Round 3; what’s the one position they have to hit on in this draft?The Rams have as good of a roster as there is in the NFL at the moment and without a selection until the third round, they’ll have a bit more pressure to hit on a pick. Their primary needs in the draft are offensive line — with Andrew Whitworth retiring and Austin Corbett leaving in free agency — and cornerback, with Darious Williams leaving. If the Rams can hit on either of those two — or both — they could find themselves with more depth, which could come in handy in December, January and February. — Josh Weinfuss

Miller: Should the 49ers use early picks (they have two in Round 3) to build around Trey Lance or plug holes in the secondary?Even after signing cornerback Charvarius Ward, the Niners could still use some help in the secondary (namely strong safety and nickel corner). But their resources are better spent helping Lance. Specifically, the 49ers would be wise to use some meaningful draft capital on the offensive line for help at guard, a future option at center and possibly even another tackle with Mike McGlinchey entering the final year of his rookie deal. One more spot to watch? Edge rusher, where this regime has never been shy about continuing to add and the draft boasts plenty of potential. — Nick WagonerMiller: With three picks in the top 50 selections, what positions need the most attention in Seattle?Offensive tackle is the most glaring need, though the Seahawks could potentially bring back Duane Brown and/or Brandon Shell, as both former starters remain unsigned. The Seahawks did enough in free agency to not have to force a pick at edge rusher or cornerback, but they could still use a difference maker at either spot. They don’t view quarterback as being as big of a need as observers might because they’re high on Drew Lock’s potential. — Brady Henderson
.