A screen displays trading informations for stocks on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., June 27, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Lewis Krauskopf, additional reporting by David Randall and Ira Iosebashvili; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Richard ChangOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. .
NEW YORK, July 15 (Reuters) – Fears of a potential economic slowdown are clouding the outlook for value stocks, which have outperformed broader indexes this year in the face of surging inflation and rising interest rates.Value stocks – commonly defined as those trading at a discount on metrics such as book value or price-to-earnings – have typically underperformed their growth counterparts over the past decade, when the S&P 500’s (.SPX) gains were driven by tech-focused giants such as Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) and Apple Inc (AAPL.O).That dynamic shifted this year, as the Federal Reserve kicked off its first interest rate-hike cycle since 2018, disproportionately hurting growth stocks, which are more sensitive to higher interest rates. The Russell 1000 value index (.RLV) is down around 13% year-to-date, while the Russell 1000 growth index (.RLG) has fallen about 26%.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com This month, however, fears that the Fed’s monetary policy tightening could bring on a U.S. recession have shifted the momentum away from value stocks, which tend to be more sensitive to the economy. The Russell value index is up 0.7% in July, compared with a 3.4% gain for its growth-stock counterpart.”If you think we are in a recession or are going into a recession, that does not necessarily … work to the advantage of value stocks,” said Chuck Carlson, chief executive at Horizon Investment Services.The nascent shift to growth stocks is one example of how investors are adjusting portfolios in the face of a potential U.S. economic downturn. BofA Global Research on Thursday cut its year-end target price for the S&P 500 to 3,600 from 4,500 previously and became the latest Wall Street bank to forecast a coming recession. read more The index closed at 3,863.16 on Friday and is down 18.95% this year.Corporate earnings arriving in force next week will give investors a better idea of how soaring inflation has affected companies’ bottom lines, with results from Goldman Sachs , Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Tesla among those on deck.For much of the year, value stocks benefited from broader market trends. Energy shares, which comprise around 7% of the Russell 1000 value index, soared over the first half of 2022, jumping along with oil prices as supply constraints for crude were exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.But energy shares along with crude prices and other commodities have tumbled in recent weeks on concerns that a recession would sap demand.A recession also stands to weigh on bank stocks, with a slowing economy hurting loan growth and increasing credit losses. Financial shares represent nearly 19% of the value index. read more An earnings beat from Citigroup, however, buoyed bank shares on Friday, with the S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK)gaining 5.76%.At the same time, tech and other growth companies also tend to have businesses that are less cyclical and more likely able to weather a broad economic slowdown.”People pay a premium for growth stocks when growth is scarce,” said Burns McKinney, portfolio manager at NFJ Investment Group.JPMorgan analysts earlier this week wrote they believe growth stocks have a “tactical opportunity” to make up lost ground, citing cheaper valuations after this year’s sharp sell-off as one of the reasons.Value stock proponents cite many reasons for the investing style to continue its run.Growth stocks are still more expensive than value shares on a historical basis, with the Russell 1000 growth index trading at a 65% premium to its value counterpart, compared to a 35% premium over the past 20 years, according to Refinitiv Datastream.Meanwhile, earnings per share for value companies are expected to rise 15.6% this year, more than twice the rate of growth companies, Credit Suisse estimates.Data from UBS Global Wealth Management on Thursday showed value stocks tend to outperform growth stocks when inflation is running above 3% – around a third of the 9.1% annual growth U.S. consumer prices registered in June. read more Josh Kutin, head of asset allocation, North America at Columbia Threadneedle, believes a possible U.S. recession in the next year would be a mild one, leaving economically sensitive value stocks primed to outperform if growth picks up.”If I had to pick one, I’d still pick value over growth,” he said. “But that conviction has come down since the start of the year,” Kutin said.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comAnalysis: Private equity’s swoop on listed European firms runs into rising execution risks
- Boards, shareholders start to rail against lowball bids
- Push for higher premiums compound debt funding dilemma
- Buyer vs seller valuation gaps may take a year to close
LONDON, June 28 (Reuters) – European listed companies have not been this cheap for more than a decade, yet for private equity firms looking to put their cash piles to work, costlier financing and stronger resistance from businesses are complicating dealmaking.Sharp falls in the value of the euro and sterling coupled with the deepest trading discounts of European stocks versus global peers seen since March 2009, have fuelled a surge in take-private interest from cash-rich buyout firms.Private equity-led bids for listed companies in Europe hit a record $73 billion in the first six months of this year to date, more than double volumes of $35 billion in the same period last year and representing 37% of overall private equity buyouts in the region, according to Dealogic data.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Joice Alves, Emma-Victoria Farr, Sinead Cruise, additional reporting by Yoruk Bahceli, editing by Pamela Barbaglia and Susan FentonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. .
That contrasts with a sharp slowdown in overall M&A activity around the world. But as take-private target companies and their shareholders are increasingly bristling against cheap punts which they say fail to reflect fair value of their underlying businesses in 2022, prospects for deals in the second half of the year look less promising.Leading the first half bonanza was a 58 billion euro ($61.38 billion) take-private bid by the Benetton family and U.S. buyout fund Blackstone (BX.N) for Italian infrastructure group Atlantia (ATL.MI).Dealmakers, however, say the vast majority of take-private initiatives are not reflected in official data as many private equity attempts to buy listed companies have gone undetected with boardrooms shooting down takeover approaches before any firm bid has even been launched.”In theory it’s the right time to look at take-privates as valuations are dropping. But the execution risk is high, particularly in cases where the largest shareholder holds less than 10%,” said Chris Mogge, a partner at European buyout fund BC Partners.Other recent private equity swoops include a 1.6 billion pound ($1.97 billion) bid by a consortium of Astorg Asset Management and Epiris for Euromoney (ERM.L) which valued the FTSE 250-listed financial publisher at a 34% premium after four previous offers were rebuffed by its board. read more Also capturing the attention of private equity in recent weeks were power generating firm ContourGlobal (GLO.L), British waste-management specialist Biffa (BIFF.L) and bus and rail operator FirstGroup (FGP.L), with the latter rejecting the takeover approach. read more Trevor Green, head of UK equities at Aviva Investors (AV.L), said his team was stepping up engagement with company executives to thwart lowball bids, with unwelcome approaches from private equity made more likely in view of currency volatility.War in Europe, soaring energy prices and stagflation concerns have hit the euro and the British pound hard, with the former falling around 7% and the latter by 10% against the U.S. dollar this year.”We know this kind of currency movement encourages activity, and where there’s scope for a deal, shareholders will be rightly pushing for higher premiums to reflect that,” Green said.SUBDUED SPENDINGGlobally, private equity activity has eased after a record year in 2021, hit by raging inflation, recession fears and the rising cost of capital. Overall volumes fell 19% to $674 billion in the first half of the year, according to Dealogic data.Dealmaking across the board, including private equity deals, dropped 25.5% in the second quarter of this year from a year earlier to $1 trillion, according to Dealogic data. read more Buyout funds have played a major role in sustaining global M&A activity this year, generating transactions worth $405 billion in the second quarter.But as valuation disputes intensify, concerns sparked by rising costs of debt have prevented firms from pulling off deals for their preferred listed targets in recent months.Private equity firms including KKR, EQT and CVC Capital Partners ditched attempts to take control of German-listed laboratory supplier Stratec (SBSG.DE) in May due to price differences, three sources said. Stratec, which has a market value of 1.1 billion euros, has the Leistner family as its top shareholder with a 40.5% stake.EQT, KKR and CVC declined to comment. Stratec did not immediately return a request for comment.The risks of highly leveraged corporate takeovers have increased with financing becoming more expensive, leaving some buyers struggling to make the numbers on deals stack up, sources said.Meanwhile, piles of cash that private equity firms have raised to invest continue to grow, heaping pressure on partners to consider higher-risk deals structured with more expensive debt.”There is a risk premium for debt, which leads to higher deal costs,” said Marcus Brennecke, global co-head of private equity at EQT (EQT.N).The average yield on euro high yield bonds – typically used to finance leverage buyouts – has surged to 6.77% from 2.815% at the start of the year, according to ICE BofA’s index, and the rising cost of capital has slowed debt issuance sharply. (.MERHE00)As a result, private equity firms have increasingly relied on more expensive private lending funds to finance their deals, four sources said.But as share prices continue to slide, the gap between the premium buyers are willing to offer and sellers’ price expectations remains too wide for many and could take up to a year to narrow, two bankers told Reuters.In the UK, where Dealogic data shows a quarter of all European take-private deals have been struck this year, the average premium paid was 40%, in line with last year, according to data from Peel Hunt.”Getting these deals over the line is harder than it looks. The question really is going to be how much leverage (buyers can secure),” one senior European banker with several top private equity clients told Reuters.($1 = 0.8141 pounds)($1 = 0.9450 euros)Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comBenetton team working on premium of around 30% to buy out Atlantia – sources
The logo of infrastructure group Atlantia in Rome, Italy October 5, 2020. REUTERS/Guglielmo MangiapaneRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comAtlantia’s share performanceEdizione and Blackstone want to delist Atlantia to shield it from the appetite of rival suitors, who approached the Benettons last month with a proposal to buy the group and hand over Atlantia’s motorway concessions to Perez.GIP, Brookfield and the Spanish tycoon are in a ‘wait and see’ mode after the Benetton family and Atlantia’s long-time investors CRT and GIC rebuffed their offer, sources have said.The takeover offer comes as Atlantia prepares to pocket 8 billion euros from the sale of the group’s Italian motorway unit, a deal aimed at ending a political dispute triggered by the 2018 collapse of a motorway bridge.It also puts the spotlight on Alessandro Benetton, 58, who was appointed chairman of Edizione earlier this year, tightening the family’s grip on its investments.After parting ways with its Autostrade per l’Italia, Atlantia will continue to run airports in Italy and France, motorways in Europe and Latin America and digital toll payment company Telepass.The Italian government so far has been silent on the latest developments, but it has special vetting ‘golden’ powers over strategic assets, such as the country’s airports and their ownership.($1 = 0.9184 euro)Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Francesca Landini and Stephen Jewkes
Editing by Mark Potter and Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. .
Ping An Insurance profit falls 29% amid premium income pressure
File Photo: A man walks past a branch of Ping An Bank, a subsidiary of Ping An Insurance, in Beijing, China. REUTERS/Thomas PeterRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com
- Ping An annual net profit tanks 29% on year
- Life, property and casualty insurance premiums down
- Agent numbers slashed, bodes ill for future sales
SHANGHAI, March 17 (Reuters) – China’s Ping An (601318.SS), , the country’s largest insurer by market value, reported its biggest annual profit fall since 2008 on Thursday amid pressure on its premium income.Ping An posted a 29% fall in annual net profit to 101.6 billion yuan ($16 billion)in 2021 from 143.1 billion yuan, as premium income from life insurance fell 4.1% year-on-year to 490.3 billion yuan, while property and casualty insurance premium income fell 5.5% to 270 billion yuan.”Complex, severe economic situations across the world and resurgences of COVID-19 increased uncertainty in resident income expectations in 2021,” Ping An said in a filing, and this “tempered consumer spending on long-term protection products”.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comReporting by Engen Tham, Zhang Yan; Editing by Alexander SmithOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. .
Another factor was a fall in the number of Ping An sales agents fell, which meant that its new business value of life and health insurance sank 23.6% to 37.9 billion yuan.Its army of insurance agents, once the jewel in Ping An’s crown, is set to shrink further, putting more pressure on sales.”In 2022, the number of agents may still fall quite a lot compared to the year before,” Huatai Securities said in a note published this month, adding that this “can only have an impact on the growth of new insurance policies”.PROPERTY EXPOSUREPing An has been shaken by growing concerns about its investments in a highly indebted property sector which faces a liquidity crunch amid a crackdown by Beijing on borrowing.While there are suggestions of an easing — from exempting M&A financing from the tighter restrictions to loosening mortgage lending — many developers are still feeling liquidity pressure, two people with knowledge said.Ping An said it had a total exposure of 54 billion yuan ($8.4 billion) to China Fortune Land Development Co last year as the developer faced mounting default pressure.Some analysts cautioned that the total property exposure of Ping An is much higher and still underestimated by the market, which will poses further credit risks.However, its Ping An Bank Co Ltd reported a 25.6% increase in annual profit for last year, compared to 2020, with the bank’s non-performing loan ratio down to 1.02% at end of December, from 1.05% three months ago.Ping An’s Shanghai-listed shares are down 9.72% in the year to date, compared with a 11.62% drop in the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index and a 8.11% fall in Hang Seng index.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com