IC4U Under 8.5 Colorado vs. San Diego (Wednesday @ 9:40pm est)
__________________Scott SpreitzerWNBA
3-Unit Play: Take 655 Lynx +6.5 over Storm (10 p.m., Wednesday, August 3)
__________________PropStarz12:20 ETSportsLine Claim: Selesnick (aka PropStarz) is 33-19 on MLB prop plays this season.Shane Bieber (CLE) Over 6.5 Ks (-136 FD)Bieber is having his worst season since his rookie year back in 2018. That being said, his strikeout numbers are still solid and it would not surprise me if he returned to form over the remainder of the season. Even in a down year, he is still averaging 8.95 strikeouts per nine innings, and his advanced metrics suggest he is running cold on Ks. The Diamondbacks are a nice matchup on paper and currently possess the 11th-highest K rate versus right handed pitchers. Arizona is also 25th in OBP, which gives Bieber a great shot at going deep into the game. My model has him projected at 7.62 strikeouts, which is a healthy edge. I’d play this prop all the way down to -155.Zack Wheeler (PHI) Over 6.5 Ks (-106 FD)Wheeler has eclipsed this line in 11 of his previous 16 starts. The Phillies ace is averaging 6.42 strikeouts per game while facing an average of 23.84 batters per start. Wheeler’s 11.7% swinging strike percentage is 1.1% higher than his career average of 10.6%. He will face a Braves lineup that is striking out 9.26 times per game, the third-highest total in the league. Atlanta’s 25.2% K rate against right-handed pitchers is also the third-highest K rate in baseball. Wheeler has already faced the Braves twice this season and racked up 18 Ks over 13 IP. My model has Wheeler projected at 7.47 strikeouts. I would play this prop down to -145.Sandy Alcantara (MIA) Under 7.5 Ks (-142 FD)The Marlins ace has been fantastic this season and is certainly in the mix for the Cy Young. However this is a huge number for Sandy, who has been held under this line in 16 of his 21 starts this season. Alcantara will face a Reds team that averages the fourth-most strikeouts in baseball to go along with the sixth-highest K rate versus right handed pitchers. Despite the excellent matchup, I feel this line is mis-priced. My model has Alcantara projected at 6.47 strikeouts and I’m comfortable laying the juice here. I’d play this prop down to -160
__________________Matt SeveranceMLB | BALTIMORE @ TEXAS | 08/03 | 2:05 PM EDT
TEXAS -155
ANALYSIS: Baltimore won the first two games of this series quite easily but also had the clear starting pitching edge — and, remember, the O’s traded All-Star closer Jorge Lopez on Tuesday. The Rangers have the pitching edge today with Martin Perez (9-2, 2.52 ERA) over Kyle Bradish (1-4, 7.01 ERA). Surprised Perez wasn’t traded Tuesday. Austin Hays and Rougned Odor are out of the Baltimore lineup. The SL Projection Model has Texas winning 4.6-4.MLB | SEATTLE @ N.Y. YANKEES | 08/03 | 1:05 PM EDT
UNDER 7.5
ANALYSIS: I wasn’t going to play this either way but now I’m going to try the Under because Aaron Judge is sitting for the Yankees and it should be a good pitchers’ duel between Luis Castillo in his Seattle debut and Gerrit Cole. The M’s are without Julio Rodriguez, remember, and probably will be without Ty France again (their lineup not out as of this writing but I want 7.5 now in case it drops to 7 sans Judge)
__________________John BollmanMLB | BALTIMORE @ TEXAS | 08/03 | 2:05 PM EDT
TEXAS -160
ANALYSIS: Martin Perez has been the Rangers best starter all season and the Orioles have been much worse against lefties in the last 30 days ranked 23rd in the league in wOBA. They are also missing a key right-handed bat in Trey Mancini. Perez is 5-0 with a 3.30 ERA in his last seven starts and 9-0 with a 2.60 ERA in his last 15 starts. Kyle Bradish made one start since returning from IL and pitched well, but he is the Orioles weak spot in the rotation. Take the Rangers at home to avoid the sweep.MLB | SEATTLE @ N.Y. YANKEES | 08/03 | 1:05 PM EDT
SEATTLE +150
ANALYSIS: I thought the line was a little too high for the Yankees even without Ty France and Julio Rodriguez, but Aaron Judge getting the day off is confirming it. Luis Castillo will make his Mariners debut and he has been dominant lately with a 1.93 ERA in July. Obviously, its very possible he has the first start jitters but at this value we’ll take that chance. Gerrit Cole has been a bit more hittable lately as he was 3-1 with a 4.03 ERA in July. Both bullpens are solid, so I have to go with the value on the Mariners.
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