The St. Louis Cardinals’ 2022 season came to end with their loss to the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 2 of the National League Wild Card Series on Saturday night. That defeat means they’ve failed to advance past the opening round in three straight postseasons. While the greater goal of winning the 12th World Series in franchise history went unmet, the just completed campaign was a successful one in other regards. First-year manager Oliver Marmol impressed, both in terms of in-game tactics (the ninth inning of Game 1 against the Phillies notwithstanding) and in balancing a roster that was a somewhat brew of veterans and youngsters all angling for regular playing time. As well, the team won the National League Central and registered its highest regular-season winning percentage since the 100-win campaign of 2015. On an individual level, Albert Pujols burnished his legacy as one of the greatest hitters in the annals of the game and authored an unforgettable final season. Paul Goldschmidt may be the frontrunner for NL MVP laurels, and next in line might be Nolan Arenado, who enjoyed perhaps his best season at the plate (while remaining a force afield). Lars Nootbaar’s retooled swing worked to promising effect. Dylan Carlson worked himself into a plus defensive center fielder. Brendan Donovan flashed on-base chops and cherished defensive flexibility as a rookie. Ryan Helsley was one of the best high-leverage relievers in baseball, and Nolan Gorman had a promising debut campaign. That’s not an exhaustive list, and – minus the outgoing Pujols – it lays a promising foundation for 2023. Speaking of which, let’s have a cursory look at what the Cardinals need to do in order to position themselves to repeat as division champs and perhaps enjoy a deeper October run next season. Note that what follows assumes that Arenado does not employ his opt-opt and instead chooses to remain with the Cardinals for the five years and $144 million left on his contract.
Acquired from the Pirates leading up to the trade deadline, Quintana sparkled across 12 regular-season starts for the Cardinals – 2.01 ERA, 3.00 K/BB ratio, one home run allowed in 62 2/3 innings – and did so again in his Game 1 start against the Phillies. No, he’s not going to continue allowing 0.1 home runs per nine innings, but there’s reason to think he’s capable of quality innings moving forward. After that Aug. 2 trade from Pittsburgh to St. Louis, Quintana scaled back significantly on the use of his changeup and instead emphasized his sinker more often. That change in pitch mix helped him bump up his ground-ball percentage, a trend that paired him well with the Cardinals’ strong infield defense. As well, Quintana saw modest gains in spin rate, particularly on his sinker, after the trade. Throw in the fact that the 33-year-old lefty isn’t likely to command a long deal on the market, he’s a worthwhile investment for 2023. The Cardinals figure to have a number of rotation options for next season. Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, and Dakota Hudson are all under contract or team control for at least next season. Andre Pallante, Matthew Liberatore, and Jake Woodford present additional options, at least at a theoretical level (you may add Hudson to the “theoretical” tier). Yeah, it could get crowded, but there’s a lot of injury/durability/performance risk in that group, and the prevailing rule of rotation depth is that you’ll probably need more of it than you think. If things happen to go better than expected to the extent there’s a surfeit, then Quintana has recent bullpen experience in his favor.
As for franchise icon Adam Wainwright, maybe there’s room for him, as well. That would require close assessment of whether his late-season decline in results and stuff was owing entirely to a dead arm or whether age-related decline at last took hold in his age-40 campaign. Maybe it’s some of both. The priority, though, should be Quintana. There’s going to be external pressure for the Cardinals to be active on the abundant free-agent shortstop market this winter. To be sure, adding the likes of Trea Turner or Carlos Correa to the roster would make the Cardinals significantly better and is thus to be recommended. The reality, though, is that St. Louis ownership may be unwilling – unwilling, not unable – to swim in those waters. Along those lines, the current status quo is a defensible fallback. Edman, a Gold Glover at second base in 2021, enjoyed a successful mid-season transition to shortstop this season. Pick your advanced defensive metric of choice, and it liked Edman’s work at short. Outs Above Average, probably the best public-facing measure of fielding, gave Edman an OAA of 11 at shortstop this season. That’s the fourth-highest figure among shortstops in MLB, and Edman got there in just 622 defensive innings at the position. All of this passes the eye test, too. Moreover, Edman’s offensive capabilities become even more valuable at the more premium position of shortstop.
As for second base, Donovan should probably be the primary there, with Nolan Gorman getting time at the keystone when a power-first lineup is in order. Gorman, meantime, could find his regular plate appearances at DH and via spot duty at the infield corners and maybe even left field. The Cardinals do probably need a right-handed-hitting utility infielder in the mix for next season (alas and alack, Paul DeJong’s bat is probably not adequate for such a job), but that’s an easy enough role-filler to find (perhaps a reunion with free-agent-to-be Aledmys Díaz?). 3. Upgrade the catcher positionHere’s where the Cardinals should spend, be it in free-agent dollars or trade chits. St. Louis catchers this season combined to hit just .209/.261/.291. That’s an unacceptable level of production, even for a premium and grueling position like catcher. Cardinal legend Yadier Molina is freshly retired, so there’s indeed a void. The temptation will be to promote Andrew Knizner to full-time status, and maybe there’s something to that. Although Knizner has struggled to hit across 186 MLB games over parts of four seasons, he did have promising minor-league numbers even at the higher rungs of the system. That said, he’s going to be 28 in February, and it’s fair to wonder how much higher his offensive ceiling is at the highest level. The clearest path to an upgrade is to sign pending free agent Willson Contreras or swing a trade for Sean Murphy of the Oakland A’s, who remain squarely in self-destruct mode. A less conspicuous option might be inking Omar Narváez, whose left-handed bat would pair well with Knizner’s starboard stick. That would be a lower-cost approach that would still keep a path clear for Knizner to seize primary duty should his bat level up.
There’s probably a case to do more in the rotation, and adding an established frontline starter is an evergreen recommendation for pretty much any team. If Cards brass decides a good-faith pursuit of Jacob deGrom or Justin Verlander is in order, then they should obviously do that without hesitation. However, there’s a foundation in place, and there’s depth if you bring back Quintana and maybe Wainwright. As for the outfield, it’s a promising mix with Lars Nootbaar, Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, and Juan Yepez in place. And to repeat, giving Gorman some looks at a corner spot is a sound idea. Best of all, uber-prospect Jordan Walker, who thrived at Double-A this season as a 20-year-old, moved to the outfield in early August and showed a knack for it. There’s probably little chance he breaks camp with the Cardinals next spring, but his current trajectory suggests he’ll be ready for the highest level before the midpoint next season. As is the case with shortstop and the front of the rotation, if there’s a willingness to spend at the top of the market – in the outfield that would be none other than Aaron Judge – then by all means do just that. However, the current outfield state of affairs is such that there’s no need to invest in the risky middle tier of the market, which, to be frank, pretty much describes the entire non-Judge segment of the market (once you ding Michael Brantley for his injury concerns, anyway). You don’t crowd out what’s presently in place for the likes of Andrew Benintendi or Wil Myers. Swing big on best-in-class free agents if the coffers are open, but otherwise make the improvements noted above and, very likely, enter the 2023 season as the favorites to repeat in the NL Central.
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