The Mariners just landed probably the best pitcher who’ll change teams this month, sending four prospects, including their top two at the moment, to Cincinnati for right-hander Luis Castillo.
Castillo is an above-average starter who’s been very durable for the Reds. He works mostly off his fastball, averaging 97 mph on the pitch and getting more whiffs on the four-seamer (as classified by Statcast) this year than on anything else he throws. His changeup has been his best off-speed pitch over his tenure with the Reds, ranking among the best in baseball in 2018-19, although it has been less effective this year as it’s been harder and more true. He has a slider that has always outplayed its quality, as it’s not a high spin pitch and has a very short break, but before this year he would miss a lot of bats with it anyway. It’s just very deceptive, with spin direction opposite that of his other pitches, and without much horizontal movement it probably looks to a lot of hitters like a changeup or even a fastball until it starts to drop. He has cut his walk rate this year from when he led the NL in free passes in 2021, so he’s over three wins above replacement this year already and likely to produce another two before the season is out.
It’s a curious move for Seattle, though, as the Mariners’ rotation isn’t an area of weakness. What Castillo could provide is innings, as two of the five Seattle starters are young ’uns in Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, neither of whom has ever seen 150 innings in a professional season. None of the five starters is a free agent after the season, though, so the Mariners will have six starters going into 2023 unless another trade is coming. Castillo is also an insurance policy against an unexpected injury somewhere in the rotation down the stretch, because after the lone trade deadline you don’t have another way to cover a sudden player loss.
Noelvi Marte runs the bases with the Modesto Nuts last season. (Larry Goren / Four Seam Images via Associated Press)
The Mariners sure paid a premium for that insurance, though. They traded the two best prospects still in their system, plus another solid prospect and a minor-league reliever, for a year and a third of Castillo. Shortstop Noelvi Marte, who is No. 12 on my midseason prospect rankings, moved up to the top spot on the org list after Julio Rodríguez graduated. Marte got off to a slow start in High A this year but has been raking for about two months now, making more contact, hitting for more power and getting on base, all of which are things he can do regularly. He’s more physically mature than the typical 20-year-old, and he might have lost a little speed since last year, which probably increases the odds that he moves off shortstop, probably to third base. He has good hands and a plus arm to stay there as long as he doesn’t slow down too much, but the OBP and power combination will play anywhere.
Edwin Arroyo is currently in the honorable mentions for my midseason top-60 rankings, as the Mariners’ second-round pick from last year has been one of the best hitters in the Low-A California League this year despite being its youngest regular. He’s hitting .316/.385/.514 with just a 22 percent strikeout rate, stealing 21 times in 25 attempts, all as an 18-year-old who is actually younger than the Mariners’ first-round pick from this year, Pennsylvania high school shortstop Cole Young. Arroyo projects to stay at shortstop, and with the way he’s showing contact and power already, he might end up in Noelvi’s territory as a potential star.
The Reds also gained two other pitchers in the deal. Right-hander Levi Stoudt is a starter in Double A who works mostly fastball-changeup but has suffered for his lack of an average breaking ball, giving up a .512 slugging percentage to right-handed batters. His stuff backed up some this year as well, and he can’t succeed with lower velocity. Right-handed reliever Andrew Moore, who is not that Andrew Moore (drafted by Seattle in 2015) but a different Andrew Moore (drafted by Seattle in 2021), is probably just an organizational arm in the end, a reliever in High A now who has walked too many guys but throws hard and has a solid enough changeup that might help him get to the majors.
The two bats coming back to Cincinnati could be difference-makers, with some risk in each case but more than enough upside to justify the move, and it feels like the Reds went for ceiling here rather than playing it safe. The Mariners didn’t necessarily need Castillo, but he was the best starter out there, and if he’s the addition who ends their playoff drought, I don’t think anyone will question the cost. The Reds do have to trade Tyler Mahle at this point — there is no reason to keep him when his value is only going to go down from here as he approaches free agency after next year, and with Frankie Montas just back from a shoulder injury, Mahle might be the best starter available.
(Photo of Luis Castillo: Brad Penner / USA Today)
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