Micah RobertsCFB | NEVADA @ NEW MEXICO ST. | 08/27 | 10:00 PM EDT
NEVADA -9
ANALYSIS: New Mexico State has new coach in Jerry Kill, a new QB, and 10 returning starters from a 2-win 2021 squad. Are they turning the corner as they head to C-USA next year, or are they the same team with one winning season in the last 19 years? Ratings show they’re the fourth-worst squad. But Las Vegas books posted Nevada -14.5 early on and sharps took it often. There’s no more air raid offense for Nevada. Coach Ken Wilson will be running the ball more with only two offensive starters returning. There’s a new Wolfpack QB and a totally overhauled receiving corps, but still better talent overall. I took Nevada laying the shorter price.CFB | NEBRASKA @ NORTHWESTERN | 08/27 | 12:30 PM EDT
NORTHWESTERN +12.5
ANALYSIS: Both teams come off disappointing 3-9 seasons, and while Nebraska won last year’s meeting 56-7, that winning QB has transferred to Kansas State. The Cornhuskers also lost their final six games. Both teams have new QBs, but the returning players stand out to me. Four of Northwestern’s five starting offensive linemen are back, along with its top two tight ends. I expect that O-line to protect the QB and run-block well enough for the Wildcats to possibly even win the game outright. Take Northwestern and the points.
__________________Tom FornelliCFB | NEVADA @ NEW MEXICO ST. | 08/27 | 10:00 PM EDT
NEW MEXICO ST. +9
ANALYSIS: I don’t think people realize quite yet how bad Nevada could prove to be in 2022. This line certainly hasn’t picked up on it. While the Wolf Pack were excellent last season, it lost QB Carson Strong and WR Romeo Doubs. Coach Jay Norvell left to take the Colorado State job, and took a number of Nevada’s most important players with him. The cupboard in Reno has been left bare, and while New Mexico State’s routinely been one of the worst teams in the country, new coach Jerry Kill will have them ready for the season-opener.CFB | WYOMING @ ILLINOIS | 08/27 | 4:00 PM EDT
ILLINOIS -10
ANALYSIS: Wyoming was one of the stronger teams in the Mountain West last season, but lost nearly every impact player it had on offense. Quarterback Levi Williams transferred to Utah State, as did leading rusher Xazavian Valladay (Arizona State) and receiver Isaiah Neyor (Texas). There were also numerous departures on the defensive side of the ball. None of which will work to the Cowboys advantage against an Illinois team that might struggle to reach a bowl game in 2022, but should prove superior in this game.
__________________Matt SeveranceCFB | CHARLOTTE @ FAU | 08/27 | 7:00 PM EDT
FAU -290
ANALYSIS: CBS Sports Network has this Conference USA matchup. I am mad at myself for not taking this when it was FAU -5.5 and now that it’s -7.5, I feel no choice but to do the moneyline before it gets to -300. I am very confident the Owls win at home — it won 38-9 at Charlotte last year — but I’m not sure about covering the number as openers are always tricky. Coach Willie Taggart brings back his starting QB (Miami transfer N’Kosi Perry), top running back (Johnny Ford), top two wideouts and four starting offensive linemen. The defense is a moderate concern, but Taggart added a handful of Power 5 transfers and has one of C-USA’s top safeties in Teja Young. Charlotte brings back much of its offense but a terrible 2021 defense lost three of its top four tacklers. I’m fine playing this solo, but I also have Northwestern +12.5 at -110 vs. Nebraska in Week Zero, so if you played the two games together on the ML you’d win about $155 on $100. Just saying …CFB | NEBRASKA @ NORTHWESTERN | 08/27 | 12:30 PM EDT
NORTHWESTERN +12.5
ANALYSIS: This game is in Ireland. I don’t think Nebraska is 12.5 points better than anyone in the Big Ten except maybe Rutgers and then only in Lincoln. The Huskers will be breaking in a new QB (probably Texas transfer Casey Thompson) as well and NW brings back QB Ryan Hilinski among 12 starters. The Huskers (who this summer lost a starting offensive lineman for the season) ALWAYS play close games it seems, although yes they did spank Northwestern last year. This is a different season with different teams and the Cats are well-coached and fundamentally sound (how can we pick against a team coached by a Fitzgerald in Ireland?). The Huskers probably will win but barring something weird not by more than 10 — this opened at -9.5.
__________________Emory HuntCFB | NEVADA @ NEW MEXICO ST. | 08/27 | 10:00 PM EDT
NEVADA -9
ANALYSIS: The Wolf Pack have a new coach in Ken Wilson, who takes over a solid roster but still will endure some growing pains in Year 1 after losing a lot of experience. However, with RB Toa Taua, OL Aaron Frost and DL Dom Peterson back in the fold, those are three excellent foundational pieces with which to work. I still have some questions about New Mexico State’s offense, which only returns four starters and is breaking in a new QB as well.CFB | UCONN @ UTAH ST. | 08/27 | 4:00 PM EDT
UTAH ST. -27
ANALYSIS: Utah State coach Blake Anderson, I thought, overachieved in his first year with the squad, finishing 11-3. This season, the Aggies are even better, especially on the offensive line. They were solid on defense and played a lot of guys, so I’m not worried about them replacing five starters there. This is going to be a very tough matchup for new coach Jim Mora’s Huskies. Expect UConn to be better this year, but not in this matchup against the Aggies.
__________________Barrett SalleeCFB | VANDERBILT @ HAWAII | 08/27 | 10:30 PM EDT
HAWAII +6.5
ANALYSIS: Get to know the name Mike Wright, because the Vanderbilt quarterback is going to be one of the most pleasant surprises of the 2022 season. The problem is, at Vanderbilt, he won’t get much help. Timmy Chang has taken over the Rainbow Warriors and will announce his presence with a bang with a stellar offensive performance that will harken back to the days that he played quarterback for Hawaii. That will force Wright into a shootout – one that Wright and Co. will be able to narrowly win thanks to the dual-threat ability of the Commodore quarterback.CFB | WYOMING @ ILLINOIS | 08/27 | 4:00 PM EDT
ILLINOIS -10
ANALYSIS: The Cowboys were decimated by departures, including stud receiver Isaiah Neyor. Plus, the entire left side of the offensive line has to be rebuilt. The Illini, on the other hand, have an established transfer quarterback in Tommy DeVito who isn’t going to be shocked by anything that the Cowboys throw at him. The combination of DeVito and established offensive skill players will force Wyoming into a shootout … and it isn’t built for that.CFB | NEBRASKA @ NORTHWESTERN | 08/27 | 12:30 PM EDT
NORTHWESTERN +13
ANALYSIS: Eight of Nebraska’s nine losses in 2021 were within one score, which – I guess – is why the Cornhuskers are big favorites against the Wildcats. Last time I checked, though, it is 2022 … not 2021. The pressure on Scott Frost is immense and it’s hard to imagine the offense clicking under Casey Thompson considering it didn’t under Frost’s hand-picked centerpiece Adrian Martinez. Northwestern has a healthy quarterback situation with Ryan Hilinski and upstart Brendan Sullivan fighting for the job, and the offensive line should be a force. This will be a one score game with a turnover in the fourth quarter deciding the outcome.
__________________Micah RobertsCFB | NORTH TEXAS @ UTEP | 08/27 | 9:00 PM EDT
NORTH TEXAS PK
ANALYSIS: North Texas won its last five regular-season games in 2021 by averaging 283 rushing yards in those contests. This came after the Mean Green stopped passing the ball so much after starting the year at 1-6. They ended the campaign fifth in the nation in rushing (233 yards) and have four offensive linemen returning to open those gaps again. UTEP started fast last season (6-1) but ended poorly (1-5), and their minus-11 turnover differential was fifth-worst in the country. I’m looking for North Texas to get the cover.CFB | WYOMING @ ILLINOIS | 08/27 | 4:00 PM EDT
ILLINOIS -11
ANALYSIS: I like what Bret Bielema did at Illinois last year to close out the season after a 1-4 start. The Illini ran the ball well, forced turnovers and played good special teams and defense. They had a +7 turnover ratio and also outscored their Big Ten opponents 174-170 with wins against Minnesota, Penn State, Northwestern and Nebraska. Only 10 starters return, but the team added senior QB Tommy DeVito, who transferred from Syracuse, and he looked sharp in spring practice. Wyoming returns 10 starters as well, but I’m not so high on the new QB or the way the Cowboys closed out 2021. Illinois covers.
__________________Tom FornelliCFB | UCONN @ UTAH ST. | 08/27 | 4:00 PM EDT
UCONN +27
ANALYSIS: Just close your eyes, hold your nose, and bet the Huskies. While there’s no reason to be optimistic about UConn this season in its first year under Jim Mora, this spread is a little too generous to Utah State. The Aggies will be one of the Mountain West’s better teams, but should be closer to a 24-point favorite in this game than a 27-point favorite.CFB | NEBRASKA @ NORTHWESTERN | 08/27 | 12:30 PM EDT
UNDER 50.5
ANALYSIS: I can see this game going a few different ways, but none of them will be high-scoring. Nebraska has a lot of new parts on offense, so it’s not crazy to expect the offense won’t be firing on all cylinders out the gate. Meanwhile, Northwestern’s defense can’t be any worse than it was last season, but even if it is, and Nebraska dominates this game, Northwestern’s offense won’t contribute nearly enough to push us past this total.
__________________Barrett SalleeCFB | NEVADA @ NEW MEXICO ST. | 08/27 | 10:00 PM EDT
UNDER 48
ANALYSIS: This seems like a low number for a college football game, but it’s still WAY too high. The Wolf Pack suffered a ton of attrition, but still have Toa Taua toting the rock. Translation … Nevada will drain the clock, and it’s hard to imagine the Aggies having much success on offense at all. Nevada might have to get to 40 points on its own for the Over to hit, and that doesn’t seem likely.CFB | NEBRASKA @ NORTHWESTERN | 08/27 | 12:30 PM EDT
UNDER 52
ANALYSIS: The Cornhuskers went wild in this game last year, but this is a much different scenario. The Wildcats are better on both lines of scrimmage, the Cornhuskers’ switch from Adrian Martinez to Casey Thompson is still hard to gauge and traveling across the pond isn’t easy on the body. This game has all the makings of an old-school, somewhat sloppy slugfest.
__________________John BollmanMLB | L.A. ANGELS @ TORONTO | 08/27 | 3:07 PM EDT
TORONTO -160
ANALYSIS: The Blue Jays came out as flat as possible on Friday with multiple errors and mental mistakes. I think they take that personally and bounce back with a focused effort on Saturday. Shohei Ohtani has struggled a bit more in August and Alek Manoah should have success against an Angels lineup that is without Taylor Ward. The Blue Jays bullpen has also been dominant since the trade deadline, I like the Blue Jays to bounce back.MLB | TAMPA BAY @ BOSTON | 08/27 | 4:10 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -130
ANALYSIS: I want to make two plays tonight because I am worried they might shoot up tomorrow. I will admit, the Red Sox did a great job at hitting the soft throwing lefty on Friday in Ryan Yarbrough but they have another test in Jeffrey Springs. The Rays have also been hitting lefties a lot better lately now that Manuel Margot is back in the lineup and Yandy Diaz is hot. The Rays also have a massive bullpen advantage and the Red Sox are 17-35 against the AL East this season including 3-8 against the Rays.
__________________Stephen OhMLB | L.A. ANGELS @ TORONTO | 08/27 | 3:07 PM EDT
TORONTO -160
ANALYSIS: Shohei Ohtani is getting far too much respect. The Angels have lost five of his last six starts. Meanwhile Alek Manoah (12-6, 2.66 ERA) is having an excellent season and is coming off a strong effort against the Yankees: one earned run and four hits in six innings. My model says the Blue Jays win about three-fourths of the time, so you’re getting strong value with Toronto.
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