Want to know who we are paying up for in NBA DFS today? Wondering which value play we are eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy sports experts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions for tonight’s contests.
NBA Expert Survey – Monday, April 25
Who is your favorite player to spend up for in optimal lineups?
meansy53: (FD) / (DK)
Notorious:
MrTuttle:
Who is your favorite player to spend up for in large-field contests?
meansy53:
Notorious:
MrTuttle:
Who is your favorite salary relief play in optimal lineups?
meansy53: (FD) / (DK)
Notorious:
MrTuttle:
Who is your favorite salary relief play in large-field contests?
meansy53:
Notorious:
MrTuttle: Thad Young
Who will be the biggest bust relative to salary?
meansy53: (FD) / (DK)
Notorious:
MrTuttle: (FD) / (DK)
Who are you most afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?
meansy53:
Notorious:
MrTuttle:
Who do you believe you’ll be most overweight on compared to the field?
meansy53:
Notorious:
MrTuttle:
Which team are you targeting players from the most?
meansy53: BOS (FD) / UTA (DK)
Notorious: Even mix of all six teams
MrTuttle: TOR
Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?
meansy53: saw a massive spike in usage in Game 3. After posting a 26.6% usage rate in Game 1 and a 25.6% usage rate in Game 2, it was all the way up at 40.7% in Game 3. That was obviously a huge factor in him dropping 66 FD / 65.25 DK points.
Notorious: has played progressively more minutes in every game this series — 20 in Game 1, 23 in Game 2, 30 in Game 3, and 36 in Game 4. It will be hard for him to continue the trend tonight, but we should at least like the direction of his playing time.
MrTuttle: minutes (34, 22, 35, 23) have been extremely sporadic this series. While he currently looks like a strong point-per-dollar option for if you’re using RG projections, there is some extrem downside here, especially if is playing well.
Who is your top overall play (when considering price, matchup, roster construction, etc.) on the board and why?
meansy53: & – These are two of my favorite spends on the slate, and I will let pricing dictate which site I prioritize them. That leaves as the priority on FD ($2,400 cheaper than Tatum) and Tatum as the priority on DK (only $1,300 more than Brown). These two guys have been rock solid all series, playing huge minutes and adding in the fantasy points along with it. Even though Boston is up 3-0, the oddsmakers are predicting another close game tonight in Brooklyn. That means these guys should play as many minutes as they can handle, which means the fantasy points probably continue to follow too. These are two of my favorite spend-ups on the slate, and I like them in all formats tonight.
Notorious: – It doesn’t feel like he’s played his best in this series, yet he has topped 45 fantasy points in every single game. He tends to shine in the playoffs and he should play 40+ minutes given the magnitude of this game. The winner of Game 5 in a 2-2 series goes on to win the series 82% of the time. Mitchell isn’t overly expensive and he offers a high/floor ceiling combination for cash games and tournaments.
MrTuttle: – Siakam was finally aggressive in Game 4 and he’ll need to be again on Monday night with already ruled out. Siakam saw solid boosts with FVV out this season as he handled the ball more, posting a 28.6% usage rate and 27.3% assist rate over 920 minutes. He averaged 42.35 DK points/41.5 FD points per 36 minutes without FVV and should be in line for all the minutes he can handle in Game 5 (he nearly played 44 minutes in Game 4).
Who is your top contrarian play (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?
meansy53: – Regardless of wherever it is that pOWN% is come slate lock time, I’d have to think that recency bias plays a big role in KD coming in lower owned than everyone will think. The guy has played his worst three-game stretch of basketball in quite some time. Anywhere from 41-46 minutes in each of the three games in this series, yet hasn’t been able to crack 40 fantasy points once. Crazy. For me, I like betting on talent, especially when the talent is one of the best basketball players ever. Just because he has played poorly of late doesn’t mean that 70+ fantasy points isn’t still in his range of outcomes. And if he does that tonight, you probably need him in your lineup to get 1st place in the big tournaments. DFS players probably flock to some other studs tonight (and for good reason), but KD is still KD.
Notorious: & – My plan this evening is to include at least one of Irving and Durant in every lineup that I build. The Nets could have won Game 1, they could have won Game 2, and I thought for sure they would win Game 3. Unfortunately, they are now facing elimination at home in Game 4. Irving had the monstrous Game 1, but has struggled in the last two. Durant has looked off all series, which is strange given how matchup-proof he has been throughout his career. I don’t expect the Nets to pack it in just yet. I could realistically see them winning the next couple of games and then the pressure would really start to mount for Boston.
MrTuttle: – Luka supposedly came out of Game 4 unscathed after returning from a calf injury. He finished the game with a 30/10/4 line and played 33 minutes. Overall, I think people will continue to take a more cautious approach which could lead to lower than expected ownership relative to a three game slate. Current RG projections project Luka as the second highest raw scorer on the slate on DraftKings (fourth highest on FanDuel) with a 35 minute projection and I think there’s a chance he could get up to the 38-40 minute range if the game stays close. There is always some re-injury risk with soft-tissue injuries but the payoff from rostering Luka could be huge if he truly is fully healed.
What is your hot take of the day?
meansy53: The Nets beat the Celtics in overtime to extend the series another game, with getting a triple-double in 50 minutes.
Notorious: The Jazz don’t blow another fourth quarter lead because they never have one. Mitchell puts up 55 fantasy points, but the Jazz lose to the Mavs.
MrTuttle: Luka is a full go and drops a 70+ fantasy point triple-double.
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NOTE: Our analysts do their best to update their answers as news comes out throughout the day. For the most up-to-date picks and projections as lineup lock approaches, be sure to head to LineupHQ.
Image Credit: Imagn
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