FREE PREMIUM: CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings

This DFS content is a part of our Premium Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access MLB Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, MLB DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

Happy Friday, I guess. I’m coming to you from the future, as I’ve just finished writing today’s Musings. My initial fears about this slate have been confirmed. It’s just a huge wide-open mess of kind of OK stuff. I basically have zero conviction on anything on the offensive side, and while I have some pitching preferences, there are so many viable options that there’s no ideal way to sort them all out. Perhaps I’ll end up a little more focused in on something later in the day as we start to see lineups roll in, but for now, this is the nonsense we have.

Friday Night Pitching

There is a crazy ton of pretty good pitching, but a lack of truly elite, can’t miss aces. This is the bird’s eye view of everything that could potentially end up in the top tier, and then we’ll start cutting and sorting:

at Cardinals
at Red Sox
vs Tigers
vs Nationals
vs Marlins
at Rangers
vs Twins
at Mets
Tyler Anderson vs Cubs
vs Rockies
vs Pirates
at A’s
vs Phillies
vs Giants
at White Sox
vs Blue Jays

OK, yikes! This is so many decent pitchers it’s going to be very tough to narrow down. Let me start by cutting a few and then sorting into some buckets.

As you probably know, in general and are two of my favorite pitchers. But Skubal has been way off his game for a month, and this is too tough a matchup for the salary on Kirby. So, they miss they cut. has been too up and down to want to pay top dollar in Boston, so he’s out. Um, shoot, no more easy cuts, let’s make some buckets:

Wild Cards with Upside

vs Tigers – 27.3% K, 8.9% BB, 4.90 ERA, 3.63 SIERA
vs Giants – 27.9% K, 12.8% BB, 5.13 ERA, 4.02 SIERA
vs Pirates – 28.1% K, 10.4% BB, 4.60 ERA, 3.23 SIERA

These are three of the five highest strikeout rates on this slate, and they are also three of the highest walk rates, making them three of the least consistent options.

chalk. I certainly get it with the price and the matchup, but chalk? This is a guy who has topped six innings only once in 14 starts and is barely past one of the worst months any pitcher in the league has seen all season. He has looked basically back to normal in his last two starts, and if you look at his splits, it’s actually a big help if Detroit goes with 6+ lefties against him. Here’s what I can tell you. At $7,800 on DK, he’s very easily the SP1 by projections, and has the most points per dollar upside. I have to rank him first based on that, but I will tell you that I am going to be drastically under the field on him. On FD, he’s a tad pricier, but still cheap compared to the top of the board. I’ll play him a bit, but not as my primary option. I simply don’t trust his nonsense as chalk.

? Goodness gracious, who knows. He was awful, then awful, then bad, then awful, then struck out 12 Dodgers. That is . The key point here is that the big start last week has no bearing whatsoever on
tonight. He could strike out another 12, he could also go three innings with six walks. I prefer Giolito, and that’s really saying something.
is doing his best to fit into this nonsense group of talented pitchers with wild swings in every direction. The very clear issue here is not even the inconsistency, but the pitch count. He missed a few weeks, then threw 62 pitches in his first start back. He should be back up towards 80, and against Pittsburgh, that’s plenty for him to be good, but it also lowers his ceiling and his margin for error. I love the matchup and the salary enough that he makes my pool, ahead of Snell but behind Giolito.

Actually Good Pitchers

at Cardinals – 27.9% K, 5.6% BB, 2.66 ERA, 3.08 SIERA
vs Nationals – 27.3% K, 8.4% BB, 4.34 ERA, 3.52 SIERA
vs Marlins – 25.7% K, 7% BB. 4.01 ERA, 3.49 SIERA
at Rangers – 24.7% K, 6.4% BB, 2.47 ERA, 3.55 SIERA
vs Twins – 26.2% K, 8.2% BB, 3.96 ERA, 3.57 SIERA
at Mets – 24.6% K, 7.1% BB, 2.97 ERA, 3.58 SIERA
Tyler Anderson vs Cubs – 21.5% K, 4.4% BB, 3.09 ERA, 3.76 SIERA
vs Rockies – 22.8% K, 6.8% BB, 3.40 ERA, 3.77 SIERA
at A’s – 18.2% K, 5.5% BB, 4.15 ERA, 4.34 SIERA
vs Phillies – 20.3% K, 6.8% BB, 3.26 ERA, 3.97 SIERA

Based on long-term skill set, is the clear best pitcher on the board tonight. Based on recent performance, is the best pitcher on the board tonight. I can argue that they are ‘overpriced’ in the context of this slate in these matchups, but I can also argue that with no pitcher higher than $10,200 on either site, salary is not the primary issue tonight. The way I view this is that I trust Wheeler and Morton roughly 271% more than I trust Giolito or Snell. The matchups are not as good as Giolito’s, and the realistic per-inning upside is not as good as Snell. Whoop-dee-doo. These are my two favorite pitchers tonight and it’s not particularly close. This is where I get in that tricky situation of not knowing exactly the best way to do my job here. I think I am supposed to tell you that Giolito is the best play tonight, and he probably is. But, I’m playing Wheeler and Morton long before him.

I’m also playing ahead of Giolito, but with a slight concern that he doesn’t have quite his full leash after missing 12 days on the covid list. It was only one missed start and there’s no injury, so he is probably fine, but maybe he only gets six innings where he would get seven, and those innings are what gives him his ceiling. That puts him behind Wheeler and Morton.

I love , but he’s had just the one big strikeout game and overall, it just doesn’t look likely to see a ceiling game with him. The Brothers Gray are both very good pitchers, but Sonny’s strikeouts have been way down at a goofy 17.4% the past month and I really don’t like it. Jon has been the better and more consistent Gray and I like him a little, but not enough to include him in the primary pool.

and just don’t quite make it tonight. These guys are good, but good is where it stops. They are just priced up a little too high for what they are. That is also the issue with Tyler Anderson, who I just can’t pay $9k for on this slate.

OK, what about ? He has the lowest strikeout rate of anyone in this group, but also has strong control, consistent innings and most importantly, a trip to Oakland, which is perfect for a strike throwing fly ball pitcher. Oakland is really not terrible enough to just play any random pitcher against them, it’s more that this matchup just really suits the pitching style of Urquidy perfectly. He should get a few extra strikeouts, but more than that he has a clear path to easy innings against a bunch of low walk batters who don’t hit the ball hard. I’m playing him as my SP3 behind Wheeler and Morton.

What About Cheap Nonsense?

at Royals
vs Angels
at Orioles
at Mariners

The biggest problem with the cheap nonsense is that it’s not really cheap. All these guys are between $5,800 – $6,600 on DK. While I’ve tried to highlight the problems with them, Giolito, Snell and Ashby are below $8k. I can’t in good conscience tell you to play these cheap nonsense darts when you have upside pitchers like that below $8k.

That’s really the whole story here. Realistically, should be able to get you six innings and maybe all the batted balls go his way and he’s sort of OK. He’s really not a much different pitcher than and I’m playing Urquidy, so sure if getting down to $6,500 makes all the difference, I’ll play a Civale lineup. And then I have to mention that has five straight starts over 15-DK points. He’s a decent-ish real life pitcher at $6,300 in a matchup that offers a lot of strikeouts. I’d land on him after Civale as a second cheap dart throw where salary is necessary.

PITCHING CLIFF NOTES

This is just yikes all around. I have no conviction anywhere and I’m extremely torn on what I’m supposed to tell you.

The very obvious best play is . The matchup is great and he’s cheap for his talent. I’m assuming this ends up as mega-chalk in smaller field tournaments especially, and I am going out of my way to be under the field. I just don’t trust him. But, he is also the best play. Do with that what you will. is Giolito in a tougher matchup, and is Giolito in a great matchup with pitch count concerns added to his skill set inconsistency. I will simply mix and match these three in various combos, but none of them are my primary options tonight.

I am paying up for and . I’d rather spend a few extra bucks for actual good pitchers. I am also playing ahead of Giolito and Snell, but at basically the same level. After that, I will start tossing in , and . The more lineups I build, the more I’ll spread out, and this is one of those slates where I am not going to be narrowed down to my usual level with pitchers.

I would not tell you that it’s wrong to go the other way and just get way ahead of the field on Giolito. I completely understand that angle as well, it’s just not what I’m doing.

Friday Night Bats

I feel the same level of Yikes in looking at the offense tonight. Because of the state of the pitching, with a ton of good, but not great pitchers, we are left with a ton of good, but not great offense. I end up with a 5-team top tier and then a messy second tier where I could include pretty close to every team on the slate, though I’ll narrow it down a bit.

TOP TIER OFFENSE

Atlanta Braves vs
NY Yankees at
Milwaukee Brewers vs
LA Dodgers vs
Arizona Diamondbacks vs

Because of how it drops off after this, I have this group as a clear top five, but this is not at the level of what we often see as a top tier. There is not a single pitcher anywhere on this slate with a SIERA above 4.80, which is to say there are no gas cans. But the two highest SIERA’s belong to and . Both are below average strikeout pitchers with no particularly strong batted ball skills. My big picture view of both this top tier as well as the slate overall is that I don’t see how I’m going to be able to pick out the right group of individual bats to try to win a tournament with one offs.

Sure, play , , and , but I can make that list 25 players deep with no real separation and nothing that is can’t miss.

What makes this top tier the top tier is that each one of these offenses is good enough for a break the slate performance. With the Yankees, it’s more based on their talent than the opposing pitcher, while with the Diamondbacks, it’s based more on the opposing pitcher and bullpen. With the Braves, Dodgers and Brewers, it’s a little bit of both.

In trying to set some sort of order of preference, I’m just going based on the opposing pitchers, and putting the Braves first, Diamondbacks second, Dodgers third, Brewers fourth and Yankees fifth.

Arizona also has the best salary pieces available in this group, while the Braves also start to get affordable at the bottom of the lineup. I am perfectly content leaving Acuna or Swanson out of a Braves stack to be able to make them fit with high end pitching. Likewise, I’m happy to leave one or two of Betts, Freeman and Turner out of a Dodgers stack to make it fit.

The biggest wild card in all this is the Yankees, as we have no idea yet who is. My lean is that he’s good, but of course I’ll play Judge or Stanton in any lineup and I’ll have Yankees stacks early on in my spread-it-out portfolio. I’m also of the opinion that is more good than bad, but I do like a good bit on his own along with Brewers stacks at the bottom of this top tier.

TIER TWO OFFENSE

Baltimore Orioles vs
Boston Red Sox vs
Chicago White Sox vs
Houston Astros at
SD Padres vs / SF Bullpen
Toronto Blue Jays at
Seattle Mariners vs
and some Royals

There is no exact right point to draw the line for the end of tier two. It’s really all a big mess, and none of it is great. All of these pitchers are good enough that ideally I wouldn’t be looking for bats against them. But then that’s the case with the whole slate.

Sadly, I have to say that the White Sox are my favorite team here with all their right-handed bats to line up against Skubal. But even with the recent bad performance, Skubal is not a pitcher I want to attack. It’s just a scary good group of numbers against lefties with , , Andrew Vaughn, , and Tim Anderson all over a .180 ISO against lefties since last season.

got send back to the minors after some rough outings, and was apparently not happy about it as he struck out 14 batters in his one Triple-A start. He has some bad numbers this season, but there is talent here, and like everything, I don’t love attacking this.
Folks, this is all a bunch of weird nonsense. I am not going to spend all day typing words that all end the same. This is a throw darts against the wall kind of slate. I am not going to pretend to know more than I do, and I’m not going to start picking out names just for the sake of doing it.

OK, What Are We Doing?
Almost every day, as I work through a slate, I end up with some sort of idea as to how I’m prioritizing things. Most often, I get to a very clear top tier and at least a handful of individual bats to focus on. Tonight, I just don’t have them.

All I can really say is that if I were just building 1-3 lineups, they would be Atlanta and/or Arizona stacks. That’s really it, I don’t have any one player or team that I would feel the need to put along with them. If salary were no issue at all, I guess I’d just go and , followed by and . But I don’t feel like I have to have any of them.

On FD, I think I’m just going straight 4/4 in every lineup. I generally prefer to play a few one offs since you can afford them, but if I don’t know who they are, I’d rather correlate.

On DK, I’m going 5-man or 4/4 stacks across the board, and most likely 5/3 unless I’m left with a bunch of salary somewhere.
I am never going to try and outsmart myself, and I’m not going to try and tell you something that I don’t know. I know that I don’t know what’s going on tonight, and I’m spreading out far and wide playing to catch some outliers.

HITTING CLIFF NOTES

If you have a strong lean towards anything, go after it with your head held high and flags waving. I don’t know what that means.

I’m going Braves and Diamondbacks first, Yankees, Dodgers and Brewers next. That’s all I know for sure, and then I start throwing darts. Those darts will definitely include some White Sox and Orioles, and they will also include some , , , , , , , and .

I’m mostly looking to pair value bats together in at least mini stacks, with players like this:

and , and , and , and , and , and Ha-seong Kim, and .

There is some chance that as I am building lineups throughout the afternoon, I’ll end up a little more focused somewhere and perhaps spot something that I’m missing right now. Tune into Crunchtime if you want to catch any last-minute epiphanies I might have.

Image Credit: Imagn

if (window.location.href.match(/welcome-to-rotogrinders-477777/i)) {
// welcome to rotogrinders page
(function() {
var _fbq = window._fbq || (window._fbq = []);
if (!_fbq.loaded) {
var fbds = document.createElement(‘script’);
fbds.async = true;
fbds.src = ‘//connect.facebook.net/en_US/fbds.js’;
var s = document.getElementsByTagName(‘script’)[0];
s.parentNode.insertBefore(fbds, s);
_fbq.loaded = true;
}
})();

fbq(‘init’, ‘955021441226568’);
fbq(‘track’, “PageView”);
}